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PRPermian Resources CorporationBuy Wait7.3·$22.43
Buy WaitHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Permian Resources is an oil and gas exploration company with an attractive forward price-to-earnings of 8.9 times, a strong earnings beat streak of 3 for 3 in recent quarters, and a solid technical setup, but commodity cycle peak risk is flagged with a forward-to-trailing earnings ratio well below the cycle peak threshold, and geographic concentration in the Permian Basin ties performance entirely to one basin's economics.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation Beat Streak↑Improving
  • Permian Geographic Concentration↓Deteriorating
  • Negative Fcf High Dividend Payout→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Permian Resources Corporation (PR) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitGrowthHigh Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Wait for pullback to $21.34. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $22.43. Engine's entry $21.34 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin; Concentration risk — Customer: small number of significant purchasers.

Permian Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, focuses on the development of crude oil and associated liquids-rich natural gas reserves in the United States. The company's assets primarily focus on the Delaware Basin, a sub-basin of the Permian Basin.... Read more

$22.43+14.8% A.UpsideScore 7.3/10#5 of 49 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.44%
IncomeYield2.81%(5y avg 2.16%)Payout40.79%sustainable
Entry $21.34(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $19.85Target $25.76(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst consensus$28.62+27.6%21 analysts with price targets
$25.76our TP
$22.43price
$28.62mean
$34

Wait for pullback to $21.34. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $22.43. Engine's entry $21.34 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin; Concentration risk — Customer: small number of significant purchasers. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Strong overall profile with balanced scores. Score 7.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Oct 28, 2026

Recent Developments — Permian Resources Corporation

Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:29:01Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 2026Date unconfirmed· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.1 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin
Concentration risk — Customer: small number of significant purchasers
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.6
P/E (Fwd)9.2
Mkt Cap$18.8B
EV/EBITDA5.1
Profit Mgn21.5%
ROE11.4%
Rev Growth55.1%
Beta0.58
Dividend2.81%
Analysts with ratings34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWide

Options Flow

P/C0.61bullish
IV58%elevated
Max Pain$15-33.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicPermian Basin
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our producing properties are concentrated in the Permian Basin, making us vulnerable to risks associated with operating in a single geographic area.'
  • HIGHCustomersmall number of significant purchasers
    10-K Item 1A: 'We depend on a small number of significant purchasers for the sale of most of our oil, natural gas and NGL production.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-19Item 5.02LOW
    Annual meeting May 19, 2026: shareholders approved First Amendment to 2023 LTIP, increasing authorized Class A shares from 71,718,560 to 101,718,560. Board had pre-approved. No director/officer departure.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-06Item 1.01MEDIUM
    OpCo entered new $3.0 billion senior unsecured Credit Agreement April 30, 2026, with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as admin agent, maturing April 30, 2031, replacing prior credit facility.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-06Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Prior credit agreement terminated April 30, 2026, replaced by new $3.0 billion senior unsecured Credit Agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. No default; clean refinancing.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-06Item 2.03LOW
    Creation of $3.0 billion direct financial obligation under new Credit Agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as admin agent, effective April 30, 2026, maturing April 30, 2031.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Vol Acceleration
3.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MAVolume surge (2.0x avg) on selloff
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
42 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $22.37Resistance $26.07

Price Targets

$20
$21
$26
A.Upside+14.8%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! RISK-OFF: MID-cap BUY_NOW needs quality>=8.5 or MoS>=50%
! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (Date unconfirmed)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PR stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $21.34. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $22.43. Engine's entry $21.34 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin; Concentration risk — Customer: small number of significant purchasers. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Strong overall profile with balanced scores. Target $25.76 (+14.8%), stop $19.85 (−13.0%), A.R:R 2.0:1. Score 7.3/10, high confidence.

What is the PR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.76 (+14.8% upside). Target $25.76 (+14.8%), stop $19.85 (−13.0%), A.R:R 2.0:1. Stop-loss: $19.85.

What are the risks of investing in PR?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin; Concentration risk — Customer: small number of significant purchasers; Negative momentum.

Is PR overvalued or undervalued?

Permian Resources Corporation trades at a P/E of 11.6 (forward 9.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about PR?

34 analysts rate PR, with a consensus score of 4.2/5. 21 analysts publish price targets averaging $29.

What does Permian Resources Corporation do?Permian Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, focuses on the development of crude oil and...

Permian Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, focuses on the development of crude oil and associated liquids-rich natural gas reserves in the United States. The company's assets primarily focus on the Delaware Basin, a sub-basin of the Permian Basin. Its properties consist of acreage blocks in Reeves County in West Texas and Lea County in New Mexico. The company was formerly known as Centennial Resource Development, Inc. and changed its name to Permian Resources Corporation in September 2022. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Midland, Texas.

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