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Permian Resources Corporation (PR) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $21.75, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin; Concentration risk — Customer: small number of significant purchasers.

Permian Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, focuses on the development of crude oil and associated liquids-rich natural gas reserves in the United States. The company's assets primarily focus on the Delaware Basin, a sub-basin of the Permian Basin.... Read more

$21.75+4.3% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#21 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
Stop $20.57Target $22.68(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$25.20+15.9%20 analysts
$22.68our TP
$21.75price
$25.20mean
$29

Sell if holding. At $21.75, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin; Concentration risk — Customer: small number of significant purchasers. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin
Concentration risk — Customer: small number of significant purchasers
Thin upside margin: 4.3%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.9
P/E (Fwd)10.6
Mkt Cap$19.0B
EV/EBITDA5.6
Profit Mgn18.5%
ROE10.0%
Rev Growth-9.8%
Beta0.55
Dividend2.82%
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C4.69bearish
IV59%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicPermian Basin
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our producing properties are concentrated in the Permian Basin, making us vulnerable to risks associated with operating in a single geographic area.'
  • HIGHCustomersmall number of significant purchasers
    10-K Item 1A: 'We depend on a small number of significant purchasers for the sale of most of our oil, natural gas and NGL production.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.7
Growth Rank
2.9
Quality Rank
4.3
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $18.89Resistance $21.77

Price Targets

$21
$23
A.Upside+4.3%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $21.75, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin; Concentration risk — Customer: small number of significant purchasers. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $20.57. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.68 (+4.3% upside). Prior stop was $20.57. Stop-loss: $20.57.

What are the risks of investing in PR?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin; Concentration risk — Customer: small number of significant purchasers; Thin upside margin: 4.3%.

Is PR overvalued or undervalued?

Permian Resources Corporation trades at a P/E of 16.9 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PR?

33 analysts cover PR with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $25.

What does Permian Resources Corporation do?Permian Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, focuses on the development of crude oil and...

Permian Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, focuses on the development of crude oil and associated liquids-rich natural gas reserves in the United States. The company's assets primarily focus on the Delaware Basin, a sub-basin of the Permian Basin. Its properties consist of acreage blocks in Reeves County in West Texas and Lea County in New Mexico. The company was formerly known as Centennial Resource Development, Inc. and changed its name to Permian Resources Corporation in September 2022. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Midland, Texas.

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