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Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Wait for pullback to $69.81. At $81.29 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $69.81 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 4.3%; Near 52-week high (-0.8% away).

Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets is situated in the Vaca Muerta play, Neuquina basin, Argentina. It owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico. In... Read more

$81.29+19.6% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#9 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-9.86%
Entry $69.81(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $63.58Target $83.54(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1Setup A.R:R 2.8:1
Analyst target$96.02+18.1%11 analysts
$83.54our TP
$81.29price
$96.02mean
$119

Wait for pullback to $69.81. At $81.29 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $69.81 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 4.3%; Near 52-week high (-0.8% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Strong overall profile with balanced scores. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 56d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val8.3Qual7.4Grw7.9Mom6.9Sent7.2Ins5.0Peer5.8Tech3.4Risk6.46.6OVERALL

Recent Developments — Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.4 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.3%
Near 52-week high (-0.8% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.6
P/E (Fwd)7.4
Mkt Cap$8.3B
EV/EBITDA6.5
Profit Mgn25.6%
ROE35.1%
Rev Growth97.3%
Beta-0.46
DividendNone
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.36bullish
IV58%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.4
52w Position
9.8
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 56d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $63.77Resistance $80.80

Price Targets

$64
$70
$84
A.Upside+2.8%
A.R:R0.3:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-15 (56d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VIST stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $69.81. At $81.29 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $69.81 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 4.3%; Near 52-week high (-0.8% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Strong overall profile with balanced scores. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $83.54 (+2.8%), stop $63.58 (−27.9%), Setup A.R:R 2.8:1. Score 6.6/10, high confidence.

What is the VIST stock price target?

Take-profit target: $83.54 (+19.6% upside). Target $83.54 (+2.8%), stop $63.58 (−27.9%), Setup A.R:R 2.8:1. Stop-loss: $63.58.

What are the risks of investing in VIST?

Thin upside margin: 4.3%; Near 52-week high (-0.8% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5.

Is VIST overvalued or undervalued?

Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. trades at a P/E of 11.6 (forward 7.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about VIST?

7 analysts cover VIST with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $96.

What does Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. do?Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in...

Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets is situated in the Vaca Muerta play, Neuquina basin, Argentina. It owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico. In addition, the company involved in drilling and workover activities situated in Argentina. The company was formerly known as Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V. and changed its name to Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. in April 2022. Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.

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