Vista Energy offers compelling value at a forward price-to-earnings of 6.4x and 97% year-over-year revenue growth, with elite profitability metrics including a 35% return on equity and a Rule of 40 score of 69, but three of the last four quarters missed earnings estimates and elevated options positioning signals near-term risk.
Thesis pillars
- Elite Revenue Growth Rate↑Improving
- High Return Attractive Valuation↑Improving
- Earnings Miss Streak Risk↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026· older than 90 days
Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST) Stock Analysis
Temporary headwind edge
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Wait for pullback to $59.11. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $62.02. Engine's entry $59.11 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Consecutive earnings misses (4); Negative momentum.
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets is situated in the Vaca Muerta play, Neuquina basin, Argentina. It owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico. In... Read more
Wait for pullback to $59.11. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $62.02. Engine's entry $59.11 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Consecutive earnings misses (4); Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Value play: 42% MoS with quality 8.1. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 7.4/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 118d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V.
Latest news
- NEWS Vista Energy (NYSE:VIST) Issues Quarterly Earnings Results - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Vista Energy (VIST) Releases Q3 2026 Earnings: Revenue Up, Profitability Weakens - Moomoo — Moomoo Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Vista Energy (VIST) Releases Q3 2026 Earnings: Revenue Up, Profitability Weakens - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Earnings Flash (VIST) Vista Energy Posts Q3 Revenue $1.26B, vs. FactSet Est of $1.14B - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Vista Energy Q3 Adjusted Earnings, Revenue Rise - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:29:02Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $59.11. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $62.02. Engine's entry $59.11 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Consecutive earnings misses (4); Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Value play: 42% MoS with quality 8.1. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $83.01 (+33.8%), stop $54.97 (−12.8%), A.R:R 3.4:1. Score 7.4/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $83.01 (+33.9% upside). Target $83.01 (+33.8%), stop $54.97 (−12.8%), A.R:R 3.4:1. Stop-loss: $54.97.
Consecutive earnings misses (4); Negative momentum.
Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. trades at a P/E of 8.7 (forward 5.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
7 analysts rate VIST, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 12 analysts publish price targets averaging $95.
What does Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. do?Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in...
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets is situated in the Vaca Muerta play, Neuquina basin, Argentina. It owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico. In addition, the company involved in drilling and workover activities situated in Argentina. The company was formerly known as Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V. and changed its name to Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. in April 2022. Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.