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VISTVista Energy S.A.B. de C.V.Sell6.7·$69.26+0.98%
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Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $69.26: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5.

Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets is situated in the Vaca Muerta play, Neuquina basin, Argentina. It owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico. In... Read more

$69.26+23.8% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#8 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-10.75%
Stop $64.99Target $85.74(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.7:1
Analyst target$98.55+42.3%12 analysts
$85.74our TP
$69.26price
$98.55mean
$120

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $69.26: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 30d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 16, 202630d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.0
P/E (Fwd)6.4
Mkt Cap$7.6B
EV/EBITDA5.9
Profit Mgn25.6%
ROE35.1%
Rev Growth97.3%
Beta-0.51
DividendNone
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C23.02bearish
IV69%elevated
Max Pain$55-20.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
GatesMomentum 5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.2>=4.5A.R:R 2.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 30d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $67.00Resistance $81.44

Price Targets

$65
$86
A.Upside+23.8%
A.R:R2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (30d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VIST stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $69.26: Consecutive earnings misses (3); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $64.99. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VIST stock price target?

Take-profit target: $85.74 (+23.8% upside). Prior stop was $64.99. Stop-loss: $64.99.

What are the risks of investing in VIST?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is VIST overvalued or undervalued?

Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. trades at a P/E of 10.0 (forward 6.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VIST?

7 analysts cover VIST with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $99.

What does Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. do?Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in...

Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets is situated in the Vaca Muerta play, Neuquina basin, Argentina. It owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico. In addition, the company involved in drilling and workover activities situated in Argentina. The company was formerly known as Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V. and changed its name to Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. in April 2022. Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.

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