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SMSM Energy CompanyHold6.7·$30.72-5.10%
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SM Energy Company (SM) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $30.72, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.1× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.30× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9).

SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company holds working interests in oil and gas producing wells in the Midland Basin, South Texas,... Read more

$30.72+15.5% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#5 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield18.66%
IncomeYield2.72%(5y avg 1.52%)Payout43.04%sustainable
Stop $28.95Target $35.48(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$40.79+32.8%14 analysts
$35.48our TP
$30.72price
$40.79mean
$61

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $30.72, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.1× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.30× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and materials cycle peak fwd=4.1x,ratio=0.30x. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.1× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.30× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.7
P/E (Fwd)4.1
Mkt Cap$7.8B
EV/EBITDA7.8
Profit Mgn3.6%
ROE2.3%
Rev Growth73.0%
Beta0.71
Dividend2.72%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.06bullish
IV71%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
6.0
Rsi
7.7
Uptrend pullback (RSI 38) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5MATERIALS CYCLE PEAK fwd=4.1x,ratio=0.30xA.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $29.85Resistance $35.63

Price Targets

$29
$35
A.Upside+15.5%
A.R:R1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=4.1x,ratio=0.30x

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SM stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $30.72, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.1× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.30× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $35.48 (+15.5%), stop $28.95 (−6.1%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $35.48 (+15.5% upside). Target $35.48 (+15.5%), stop $28.95 (−6.1%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Stop-loss: $28.95.

What are the risks of investing in SM?

Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.1× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.30× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Is SM overvalued or undervalued?

SM Energy Company trades at a P/E of 13.7 (forward 4.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about SM?

22 analysts cover SM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $41.

What does SM Energy Company do?SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production...

SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company holds working interests in oil and gas producing wells in the Midland Basin, South Texas, Uinta Basin, and DJ Basin. The company was formerly known as St. Mary Land & Exploration Company and changed its name to SM Energy Company in May 2010. SM Energy Company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

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