SM Energy Company (SM) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Sell if holding. At $30.53, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.9%; Concentration risk — Commodity: oil, gas, and NGL.
SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company holds working interests in oil and gas producing wells in the Midland Basin, South Texas,... Read more
Sell if holding. At $30.53, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.9%; Concentration risk — Commodity: oil, gas, and NGL. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCommodityoil, gas, and NGL10-K Item 1A: 'Our revenues, operating results, profitability, future rate of growth, and the carrying value of our oil and gas properties depend heavily on the prices we receive for oil, gas, and NGL sales.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-02-09Item 4.01HIGHSM Energy dismissed Ernst & Young as auditor, effective upon completion of FY2025 audit; appointed Deloitte & Touche LLP for FY2026. No disagreements with EY cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-01-26Item 5.02LOWFour directors (Bailo, Powers, Sullivan, Vogel) resigned contingent on Civitas Merger closing on Jan 20, 2026; new directors appointed per Merger Agreement. No disagreements cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Revenue shrinking — -17.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $30.53, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.9%; Concentration risk — Commodity: oil, gas, and NGL. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 59, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $28.46. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $32.73 (+7.0% upside). Prior stop was $28.46. Stop-loss: $28.46.
Concentration risk — Commodity: oil, gas, and NGL; Thin upside margin: 6.9%; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).
SM Energy Company trades at a P/E of 5.5 (forward 4.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover SM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $38.
What does SM Energy Company do?SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production...
SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company holds working interests in oil and gas producing wells in the Midland Basin, South Texas, Uinta Basin, and DJ Basin. The company was formerly known as St. Mary Land & Exploration Company and changed its name to SM Energy Company in May 2010. SM Energy Company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.