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SM Energy Company (SM) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $34.39, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.4× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.31× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company holds working interests in oil and gas producing wells in the Midland Basin, South Texas,... Read more

$34.39+14.5% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#8 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield18.21%
IncomeYield2.47%(5y avg 1.48%)Payout43.04%sustainable
Entry $29.48(50-day MA)Stop $27.42Target $33.75(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1Setup A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$39.08+13.6%13 analysts
$33.75our TP
$34.39price
$39.08mean
$29
$58

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $34.39, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.4× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.31× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $34.32 has reached target $33.75. No upside to wait for. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and materials cycle peak fwd=4.4x,ratio=0.31x. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — SM Energy Company

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Risks
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.4× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.31× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (-1.2% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.0
P/E (Fwd)4.4
Mkt Cap$8.0B
EV/EBITDA7.9
Profit Mgn3.6%
ROE2.3%
Rev Growth73.0%
Beta0.74
Dividend2.47%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.21bullish
IV57%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.2
Gap
5.0
52w Position
9.9
GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK fwd=4.4x,ratio=0.31xMomentum 7.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40EARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $26.82Resistance $34.44

Price Targets

$27
$29
$34
A.Upside-1.9%
A.R:R-0.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.9% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SM stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $34.39, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.4× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.31× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $34.32 has reached target $33.75. No upside to wait for. Target $33.75 (-1.9%), stop $27.42 (−25.4%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $33.75 (+14.5% upside). Target $33.75 (-1.9%), stop $27.42 (−25.4%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $27.42.

What are the risks of investing in SM?

Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.4× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.31× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (-1.2% away).

Is SM overvalued or undervalued?

SM Energy Company trades at a P/E of 14.0 (forward 4.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about SM?

22 analysts cover SM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $39.

What does SM Energy Company do?SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production...

SM Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. The company holds working interests in oil and gas producing wells in the Midland Basin, South Texas, Uinta Basin, and DJ Basin. The company was formerly known as St. Mary Land & Exploration Company and changed its name to SM Energy Company in May 2010. SM Energy Company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

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