Skip to main content
VERXVertex, Inc.Sell5.4·$12.85+2.64%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Vertex, Inc. is a tax technology software company trading below its 52-week low with a confirmed price downtrend and a death cross, yet its forward price-to-earnings of 11.5x and PEG of 0.01 reflect extreme cheapness, and the company is free cash flow positive with a 13% FCF margin despite reporting GAAP losses.

Thesis pillars

  • Extreme Value Peg DiscountStable
  • Fcf Positive Despite Gaap LossStable
  • Death Cross Confirmed DowntrendStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Vertex, Inc. (VERX) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.85: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Vertex automates transaction-based indirect tax compliance—sales tax, VAT, e-invoicing, and returns—across more than 20,000 taxing jurisdictions in over 195 countries for enterprise and mid-market companies. As of December 31, 2025, the company served 4,867 direct customers... Read more

$12.85+21.9% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#93 of 124 Software - Application
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.78%
Stop $11.95Target $15.66(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$18.00+40.1%13 analysts
$15.66our TP
$12.85price
$18.00mean
$25

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.85: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Vertex, Inc.

About Vertex, Inc.

Vertex's compliance automation platform serves 4,867 direct customers—including the majority of the Fortune 500 and 9 of the top 10 U.S. e-commerce sites—with ARR per customer of $137,867 as of December 31, 2025. The platform governs indirect tax obligations across more than 20,000 taxing jurisdictions in over 195 countries, applying a proprietary content database of more than one billion effective tax rules. Approximately 10% of 2025 revenue came from outside the U.S., up from 8% in 2024, as the company expands in Latin America and Europe.

Vertex earns substantially all revenue from software subscriptions to its indirect tax determination, compliance and returns, and e-invoicing platforms, with pricing tiered and volume-based so that customer spend grows as transaction volumes and jurisdictions expand. The platform integrates with major ERP, CRM, and eCommerce systems from Oracle, SAP, Microsoft, Salesforce, and Shopify through pre-built connectors maintained under a rigorous partner certification program. The company's monthly-updated tax content—over one billion effective rules—is the proprietary asset that differentiates the platform from competitors including other tax-specific software vendors and the tax compliance services of large accounting firms such as Deloitte, PwC, Ernst & Young, and KPMG. In 2025, Vertex partnered with Kintsugi AI and Brinta (NITIS SAS) to extend capabilities for small and medium businesses and Latin America e-invoicing, respectively. No single customer represented more than 10% of total revenue in either 2025 or 2024.

Show full overview

Vertex acknowledged in its 10-K that a new Chief Executive Officer was recently appointed amid ongoing organizational change, and that failure to recruit specialists in AI and e-invoicing or to adapt to an AI-enabled operating model could weaken competitive position. In April 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K a Value Creation Plan reducing its global workforce by approximately 170 employees (9% of the total), with estimated pre-tax charges of $6 million to $8 million for severance; the restructuring was characterized as an effort to refocus investment on AI capabilities and key growth areas. These transitions, if poorly managed, may impact customer retention and product development timelines.

See also: Technology · Software - Application

From Vertex, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202633d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)12.4
Mkt Cap$2.1B
EV/EBITDA137.7
Profit Mgn-0.8%
ROE-2.9%
Rev Growth11.1%
Beta0.80
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.26bearish
IV101%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Support Resistance
2.1
Bollinger
2.2

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.7
Growth Rank
3.5
Value Rank
6.7

Unprofitable operations — net margin -0.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.3
Current Ratio
3.4
Moat
5.8
Fcf Quality
6.1
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
8.9
FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 13%, FCF yield 4.8%)
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.3>=5.5A.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.21Resistance $13.55

Price Targets

$12
$16
A.Upside+21.9%
A.R:R1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VERX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.85: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Prior stop was $11.95. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VERX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.66 (+21.9% upside). Prior stop was $11.95. Stop-loss: $11.95.

What are the risks of investing in VERX?

Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).

Is VERX overvalued or undervalued?

Vertex, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VERX?

22 analysts cover VERX with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $18.

What does Vertex, Inc. do?Vertex automates transaction-based indirect tax compliance—sales tax, VAT, e-invoicing, and returns—across more than...

Vertex automates transaction-based indirect tax compliance—sales tax, VAT, e-invoicing, and returns—across more than 20,000 taxing jurisdictions in over 195 countries for enterprise and mid-market companies. As of December 31, 2025, the company served 4,867 direct customers including the majority of the Fortune 500, with ARR per customer of $137,867 and approximately 90% of revenue generated in the U.S.

Related stocks: YB (Yuanbao Inc.) · YMM (Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.) · PTC (PTC Inc.) · HKD (AMTD Digital Inc.) · KARO (Karooooo Ltd.)
Home Stocks VERX

Latest news

Latest News

Newser67d ago
MarketBeat61d ago
TipRanks68d agoProduct
富途牛牛68d agoAnalyst
Insider Monkey69d ago
MarketBeat67d agoAnalyst
MarketBeat67d agoEarnings
MarketBeat59d ago
MarketBeat59d agoAnalyst
Yahoo! Finance Canada60d ago
Marketscreener.com60d agoEarnings
Marketscreener.com60d agoEarnings
Marketscreener.com60d agoEarnings
MarketBeat64d ago
Moomoo65d agoEarnings
GuruFocus65d ago
Moomoo66d agoAnalyst
Benzinga6d ago
Benzinga58d ago
Benzinga59d agoAnalyst
Loading more...