Vertex, Inc. (VERX) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the VERX stock price target?

Take-profit $16.20 (+35.1% upside). Prior stop was $11.16.

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Technology · Software - Application

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $12.07: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Concentration risk — Product: indirect tax software.

Vertex provides enterprise indirect tax compliance technology (sales/use tax, VAT, communications tax) to 4,800+ customers including the majority of the Fortune 500, supporting compliance across 20,000+ jurisdictions in 195 countries. Revenue is primarily subscription-based from... Read more

$12.07+35.1% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#62 of 96 Software - Application

Stop $11.16Target $16.20(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.0:1

Analyst target$18.62+54.2%13 analysts

$16.20our TP

$12.07price

$18.62mean

$25

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $12.07: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Concentration risk — Product: indirect tax software. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on clean insider activity and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and news soft restructuring and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

Attractive valuation

Positive insider activity

Analyst upside: 35%

Risks

Concentration risk — Product: indirect tax software

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5

Earnings in 7 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)306.8

P/E (Fwd)13.9

Mkt Cap$2.0B

EV/EBITDA174.4

Profit Mgn1.0%

ROE3.3%

Rev Growth9.1%

Beta0.79

DividendNone

Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.50bearish

IV132%elevated

Max Pain$9-25.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHProductindirect tax software
10-K Item 1A: 'we expect to continue to derive the majority of our revenue from our indirect tax software'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value8.915%1.33

Quality4.315%0.64

Growth4.815%0.72

Momentum4.610%0.46

Sentiment6.210%0.62

Insider Activity8.210%0.82

Peer Rank2.410%0.24

Technical Setup4.25%0.21

Risk Profile3.45%0.17

Catalyst5.05%0.25

Overall (Σ contributions)5.47

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank

2.4

Quality Rank

3.3

Value Rank

3.9

GatesINSIDER 0.33%=HEAVYDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)NEWS SOFT RESTRUCTURINGEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dMomentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.6>=4.5A.R:R 3.0 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive

RSI

62 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.59Resistance $13.73

Price Targets

$11

$16

A.Upside+34.2%

A.R:R3.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Insider activity: 0.33%=heavy

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

! NEWS_SOFT:RESTRUCTURING

Earnings

1/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is VERX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $12.07: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Concentration risk — Product: indirect tax software. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Prior stop was $11.16. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VERX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.20 (+35.1% upside). Prior stop was $11.16. Stop-loss: $11.16.

What are the risks of investing in VERX?

Concentration risk — Product: indirect tax software; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

Is VERX overvalued or undervalued?

Vertex, Inc. trades at a P/E of 306.8 (forward 13.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VERX?

23 analysts cover VERX with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Vertex, Inc. do?Vertex provides enterprise indirect tax compliance technology (sales/use tax, VAT, communications tax) to 4,800+...