Skip to main content

Vertex, Inc. (VERX) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.29: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Vertex provides indirect tax compliance software and automation for global commerce, serving 4,867 direct customers including the majority of the Fortune 500 across 195+ countries with $137,867 ARR per customer as of year-end 2025. Revenue is primarily recurring... Read more

$13.29+21.6% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#77 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.78%
Stop $12.33Target $16.13(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$18.54+39.5%13 analysts
$16.13our TP
$13.29price
$18.54mean
$25

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.29: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Vertex, Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • Apr 28, 2026 MEDIUM Item 2.05: Vertex announced a global Value Creation Plan approved April 28, 2026: reduction in force of approximately 170 employees (~9% of global workforce). Estimated pre-tax charges of $6M–$8M, primarily employee severance. Majority to be recognized in Q1 fiscal 2026.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)12.5
Mkt Cap$2.1B
EV/EBITDA137.7
Profit Mgn-0.8%
ROE-2.9%
Rev Growth11.1%
Beta0.80
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.04bearish
IV81%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-28Item 2.05MEDIUM
    Vertex announced a global Value Creation Plan approved April 28, 2026: reduction in force of approximately 170 employees (~9% of global workforce). Estimated pre-tax charges of $6M–$8M, primarily employee severance. Majority to be recognized in Q1 fiscal 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
4.2
Support Resistance
4.6

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.5
Growth Rank
3.1
Value Rank
7.3

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
2.0
Macd
3.3
Rsi
4.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -14.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Unprofitable operations — net margin -0.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.3
Current Ratio
3.4
Moat
5.8
Fcf Quality
6.1
Piotroski F
6.7
Gross Margin
8.9
FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 13%, FCF yield 4.8%)
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.25Resistance $15.00

Price Targets

$12
$16
A.Upside+21.4%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is VERX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.29: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 10%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $12.33. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the VERX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.13 (+21.6% upside). Prior stop was $12.33. Stop-loss: $12.33.

What are the risks of investing in VERX?

Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).

Is VERX overvalued or undervalued?

Vertex, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 12.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about VERX?

22 analysts cover VERX with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Vertex, Inc. do?Vertex provides indirect tax compliance software and automation for global commerce, serving 4,867 direct customers...

Vertex provides indirect tax compliance software and automation for global commerce, serving 4,867 direct customers including the majority of the Fortune 500 across 195+ countries with $137,867 ARR per customer as of year-end 2025. Revenue is primarily recurring subscription-based. No single customer exceeded 10% of total revenue in 2025 or 2024.

Related stocks: DAVE (Dave Inc.) · PTC (PTC Inc.) · KARO (Karooooo Ltd.) · ADEA (Adeia Inc.) · GRND (Grindr Inc.)