Vertex, Inc. is a tax technology software company trading below its 52-week low with a confirmed price downtrend and a death cross, yet its forward price-to-earnings of 11.5x and PEG of 0.01 reflect extreme cheapness, and the company is free cash flow positive with a 13% FCF margin despite reporting GAAP losses.
Thesis pillars
- Extreme Value Peg Discount↑Improving
- Fcf Positive Despite Gaap Loss→Stable
- Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Vertex, Inc. (VERX) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.40 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Vertex automates transaction-based indirect tax compliance—sales tax, VAT, e-invoicing, and returns—across more than 20,000 taxing jurisdictions in over 195 countries for enterprise and mid-market companies. As of December 31, 2025, the company served 4,867 direct customers... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.40 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Vertex, Inc.
About Vertex, Inc.
Vertex's compliance automation platform serves 4,867 direct customers—including the majority of the Fortune 500 and 9 of the top 10 U.S. e-commerce sites—with ARR per customer of $137,867 as of December 31, 2025. The platform governs indirect tax obligations across more than 20,000 taxing jurisdictions in over 195 countries, applying a proprietary content database of more than one billion effective tax rules. Approximately 10% of 2025 revenue came from outside the U.S., up from 8% in 2024, as the company expands in Latin America and Europe.
Vertex earns substantially all revenue from software subscriptions to its indirect tax determination, compliance and returns, and e-invoicing platforms, with pricing tiered and volume-based so that customer spend grows as transaction volumes and jurisdictions expand. The platform integrates with major ERP, CRM, and eCommerce systems from Oracle, SAP, Microsoft, Salesforce, and Shopify through pre-built connectors maintained under a rigorous partner certification program. The company's monthly-updated tax content—over one billion effective rules—is the proprietary asset that differentiates the platform from competitors including other tax-specific software vendors and the tax compliance services of large accounting firms such as Deloitte, PwC, Ernst & Young, and KPMG. In 2025, Vertex partnered with Kintsugi AI and Brinta (NITIS SAS) to extend capabilities for small and medium businesses and Latin America e-invoicing, respectively. No single customer represented more than 10% of total revenue in either 2025 or 2024.
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Vertex acknowledged in its 10-K that a new Chief Executive Officer was recently appointed amid ongoing organizational change, and that failure to recruit specialists in AI and e-invoicing or to adapt to an AI-enabled operating model could weaken competitive position. In April 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K a Value Creation Plan reducing its global workforce by approximately 170 employees (9% of the total), with estimated pre-tax charges of $6 million to $8 million for severance; the restructuring was characterized as an effort to refocus investment on AI capabilities and key growth areas. These transitions, if poorly managed, may impact customer retention and product development timelines.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From Vertex, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-25Recent Developments — Vertex, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS VERX Vertex posts narrow Q4 2025 EPS beat, shares fall nearly 3 percent amid muted investor sentiment. - Debt/EBITDA - N — Newser positive
- NEWS Universal Beteiligungs und Servicegesellschaft mbH Reduces Stock Holdings in Vertex, Inc. $VERX - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS Vertex Launches Global Value Creation and AI Initiative - TipRanks — TipRanks positive
- NEWS Needham Maintains Vertex(VERX.US) With Buy Rating, Maintains Target Price $20 - 富途牛牛 — 富途牛牛 positive
- NEWS Needham Maintains Vertex(VERX.US) With Buy Rating, Maintains Target Price $20 - Moomoo — Moomoo positive
Generated 2026-09-25T20:57:28Z.
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Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $11.40 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 22, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $11.00. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $14.92 (+30.9% upside). Prior stop was $11.00. Stop-loss: $11.00.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5.
Vertex, Inc. trades at a P/E of 584.0 (forward 11.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover VERX with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $17.
What does Vertex, Inc. do?Vertex automates transaction-based indirect tax compliance—sales tax, VAT, e-invoicing, and returns—across more than...
Vertex automates transaction-based indirect tax compliance—sales tax, VAT, e-invoicing, and returns—across more than 20,000 taxing jurisdictions in over 195 countries for enterprise and mid-market companies. As of December 31, 2025, the company served 4,867 direct customers including the majority of the Fortune 500, with ARR per customer of $137,867 and approximately 90% of revenue generated in the U.S.