Toast has delivered four consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of 18.3% and 22% year-over-year revenue growth, supported by 143% free cash flow conversion, yet the stock trades below its 200-day moving average with a confirmed downtrend, creating a tension between strong fundamentals and weak near-term technicals. Analyst consensus implies 22% upside to $30.49.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Revenue Growth Trajectory→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- High Free Cash Conversion→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Toast, Inc. (TOST) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Wait for pullback to $28.12. At $29.10 the A.R:R is 0.6:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $28.12 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 7.4%; Negative momentum.
Toast provides a cloud-based platform for restaurants covering point-of-sale, payment processing, payroll, marketing, and vendor management, serving approximately 20% of the U.S. restaurant market as of December 31, 2025. The company earns revenue through SaaS subscriptions,... Read more
Wait for pullback to $28.12. At $29.10 the A.R:R is 0.6:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $28.12 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 7.4%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Toast, Inc.
About Toast, Inc.
Toast's restaurant-focused platform reached approximately 20% of the U.S. restaurant market as of December 31, 2025, with 6,500 employees distributed across North America, Europe, and Asia. The company's open API connects over 200 third-party technology partners spanning reservations, inventory, accounting, marketing, and online ordering. Toast's proprietary Android-based software underpins a stack of restaurant-grade hardware—fixed POS terminals, handheld devices, self-service kiosks, and Kitchen Display Systems—all operating on a single data platform.
Toast generates revenue from four streams: SaaS subscription fees, payment processing take-rates, hardware sales, and financial technology services. SaaS modules span scheduling, payroll, marketing, loyalty, and vendor management, built on a single employee and transaction record that synchronizes across locations. Payment processing runs through Toast-issued terminals and online channels; the company holds PCI-DSS Level 1 certification assessed annually by an independent security organization. Toast Capital offers working-capital loans to eligible restaurants through a bank partner, repaid automatically through daily transaction deductions, with approved borrowers able to access funds as soon as the next business day. A majority of customers are small- and medium-sized businesses, which the 10-K identifies as more susceptible to economic downturns than enterprise accounts. Cloud infrastructure runs on Amazon Web Services.
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Toast's hardware supply chain may impact service delivery if third-party manufacturers become unwilling or unable to fulfill orders. The 10-K discloses that Toast does not hold long-term agreements with all hardware manufacturers and suppliers, and finding replacement sources that meet restaurant-grade durability standards may not be possible on short notice. Separately, small- and medium-sized restaurant customers face higher sensitivity to economic cycles, and a sector-wide downturn could simultaneously compress payment volumes and increase customer attrition across the platform.
See also: Technology · Software - Infrastructure
From Toast, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Toast, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Toast (TOST) Stock Declines While Market Improves: Some Information for Investors - Eastern Progress — Eastern Progress negative
- NEWS Toast (TOST) stock falls amid market uptick: What investors need to know - MSN — MSN negative
- NEWS Why Is Toast (TOST) Stock Soaring Today - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail positive
- NEWS Toast Shares Heat Up: TOST Joining S&P MidCap 400 - Toast (NYSE:TOST) - Benzinga — Benzinga positive
- NEWS Toast AI Strategy: Will Agents Drive Restaurant Growth? - TradingView — TradingView positive
Generated 2026-07-26T09:23:04Z.
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Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $28.12. At $29.10 the A.R:R is 0.6:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $28.12 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 7.4%; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $31.19 (+7.2%), stop $25.82 (−12.7%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $31.19 (+7.4% upside). Target $31.19 (+7.2%), stop $25.82 (−12.7%), A.R:R 0.6:1. Stop-loss: $25.82.
Thin upside margin: 7.4%; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Toast, Inc. trades at a P/E of 43.3 (forward 17.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
37 analysts cover TOST with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $35.
What does Toast, Inc. do?Toast provides a cloud-based platform for restaurants covering point-of-sale, payment processing, payroll, marketing,...
Toast provides a cloud-based platform for restaurants covering point-of-sale, payment processing, payroll, marketing, and vendor management, serving approximately 20% of the U.S. restaurant market as of December 31, 2025. The company earns revenue through SaaS subscriptions, payment processing fees, and hardware sales, supplemented by Toast Capital loans. Over 200 third-party partners integrate with Toast's APIs.