Skip to main content

Toast, Inc. (TOST) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $28.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Negative momentum.

Toast is a cloud-based restaurant technology platform providing an all-in-one system of SaaS software, integrated payment processing, restaurant-grade hardware, and a partner ecosystem purpose-built for the restaurant community. It serves restaurants and food/beverage retailers... Read more

$28.57+14.5% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#24 of 80 Software - Infrastructure
Stop $26.58Target $32.72(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$36.36+27.3%25 analysts
$32.72our TP
$28.57price
$36.36mean
$26
$51

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $28.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Earnings in 7 days (event risk)
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)51.1
P/E (Fwd)17.1
Mkt Cap$16.6B
EV/EBITDA40.3
Profit Mgn5.6%
ROE18.6%
Rev Growth22.0%
Beta1.90
DividendNone
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.86neutral
IV87%elevated
Max Pain$16-44.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
1.5
Support Resistance
2.2
Bollinger
3.5

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
3.2
Ma Position
6.0
Macd
8.8
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $24.80Resistance $29.66

Price Targets

$27
$33
A.Upside+14.5%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TOST stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $28.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $32.72 (+14.5%), stop $26.58 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TOST stock price target?

Take-profit target: $32.72 (+14.5% upside). Target $32.72 (+14.5%), stop $26.58 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Stop-loss: $26.58.

What are the risks of investing in TOST?

Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is TOST overvalued or undervalued?

Toast, Inc. trades at a P/E of 51.1 (forward 17.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TOST?

34 analysts cover TOST with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $36.

What does Toast, Inc. do?Toast is a cloud-based restaurant technology platform providing an all-in-one system of SaaS software, integrated...

Toast is a cloud-based restaurant technology platform providing an all-in-one system of SaaS software, integrated payment processing, restaurant-grade hardware, and a partner ecosystem purpose-built for the restaurant community. It serves restaurants and food/beverage retailers across formats and sizes, estimating approximately 20% U.S. restaurant market penetration, with revenue from SaaS subscriptions and fintech payment processing.

Related stocks: DLO (DLocal Limited) · KSPI (Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - ) · GEN (Gen Digital Inc.) · PAGS (PagSeguro Digital Ltd.) · STNE (StoneCo Ltd.)