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Toast, Inc. (TOST) Stock Analysis

Oversold Bounce setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Infrastructure

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $23.22, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Toast is a cloud-based, all-in-one software and payment platform built exclusively for restaurants, integrating point-of-sale, digital ordering, payroll, inventory, marketing, and payment processing in a single system. Revenue is generated from SaaS subscriptions, financial... Read more

$23.22+31.6% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#11 of 78 Software - Infrastructure
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.48%
Stop $21.59Target $30.56(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.6:1
Analyst target$33.96+46.3%25 analysts
$30.56our TP
$23.22price
$33.96mean
$45

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $23.22, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Oversold RSI 27, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Toast, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)33.8
P/E (Fwd)13.3
Mkt Cap$13.1B
EV/EBITDA27.1
Profit Mgn6.4%
ROE22.5%
Rev Growth21.9%
Beta1.82
DividendNone
Rating analysts36

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.92neutral
IV61%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEAROversold BounceSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
27 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $22.26Resistance $30.36

Price Targets

$22
$31
A.Upside+31.6%
A.R:R2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TOST stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $23.22, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Oversold RSI 27, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $30.56 (+31.6%), stop $21.59 (−7.5%), A.R:R 2.6:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TOST stock price target?

Take-profit target: $30.56 (+31.6% upside). Target $30.56 (+31.6%), stop $21.59 (−7.5%), A.R:R 2.6:1. Stop-loss: $21.59.

What are the risks of investing in TOST?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is TOST overvalued or undervalued?

Toast, Inc. trades at a P/E of 33.8 (forward 13.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TOST?

36 analysts cover TOST with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $34.

What does Toast, Inc. do?Toast is a cloud-based, all-in-one software and payment platform built exclusively for restaurants, integrating...

Toast is a cloud-based, all-in-one software and payment platform built exclusively for restaurants, integrating point-of-sale, digital ordering, payroll, inventory, marketing, and payment processing in a single system. Revenue is generated from SaaS subscriptions, financial technology (payment processing) fees, and hardware sales; the company estimates US restaurant locations on its platform represent approximately 20% of the US restaurant market. As of December 31, 2025, the company had approximately 6,500 employees worldwide.

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