Taylor Morrison Home has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters and trades at a forward price-to-earnings of 11.2x, but with the stock at RSI 93, negative revenue growth of -27%, and the price above the analyst target, the risk-reward is firmly negative for new entry.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Attractive Value→Stable
- Revenue Decline Growth Stall→Stable
- Overbought Rsi Distribution Risk→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Taylor Morrison Home Corporatio (TMHC) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $71.85 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.9% away).
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation builds single and multi-family homes across entry-level, move-up, and resort lifestyle segments under the Taylor Morrison and Esplanade brands, with a Build-to-Rent operation under the Yardly brand. The company closed 12,997 homes generating $7.8... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $71.85 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.9% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Taylor Morrison Home Corporatio
About Taylor Morrison Home Corporatio
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation closed 12,997 homes generating $7.8 billion in home closings revenue during 2025, at a gross margin of 22.5%, with net sales orders of 11,074 for the year. The company operates homebuilding communities across entry-level, move-up, and resort lifestyle segments under the Taylor Morrison and Esplanade brands in multiple U.S. markets. A Build-to-Rent business under the Yardly brand spans markets including Austin, Charlotte, Dallas, Houston, Orlando, Phoenix, Raleigh, Sarasota, and Tampa.
Taylor Morrison earns revenue from direct homebuilding—acquiring land, developing communities, and constructing homes under fixed-price subcontractor agreements—plus financial services through wholly owned subsidiaries: Taylor Morrison Home Funding (mortgage origination and sale), Inspired Title (title and escrow in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Indiana, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, and Texas), and Taylor Morrison Insurance Services (homeowner's insurance agency). Homebuilding costs are sensitive to lumber, steel, aluminum, and drywall; the company is particularly exposed to rapid cost increases for homes already under signed contracts since prices are typically set months before delivery. A cancellation rate of 13.2% in 2025 (up from 9.5% in 2024) reflects buyer sensitivity to elevated interest rates, and the company continues to offer finance incentives, interest rate buy-downs, and price concessions to maintain sales pace.
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Taylor Morrison's results are acutely sensitive to mortgage rate movements: the 10-K discloses that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 11 times from 2022 to 2024, triggering a spike in cancellations that forced the company to begin offering finance incentives and price reductions in the second half of 2022. The 2025 cancellation rate of 13.2%—up from 9.5% in 2024—illustrates that even at stabilized but elevated rates, buyer confidence may be fragile. Because prices are locked months before home delivery, rapid cost escalation from tariffs or labor shortages could weigh on margins without recourse to renegotiate.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
From Taylor Morrison Home Corporatio's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-12Recent Developments — Taylor Morrison Home Corporatio
Latest news
- NEWS Is Taylor Morrison Home Corp (TMHC) Overvalued After 4.9% Rally? - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS Taylor Morrison Home Corporation 2026 Q1 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:TMHC) 2026-04-22 - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha neutral
- NEWS Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC) Stock Trades Up, Here Is Why - TradingView — TradingView positive
- NEWS Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC) Stock Trades Up, Here Is Why - FinancialContent — FinancialContent positive
- NEWS Compared to Estimates, Taylor Morrison (TMHC) Q1 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
Generated 2026-07-12T21:14:02Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-17Item 5.02LOWDavid Merritt, a member of the Board of Directors, notified Taylor Morrison Home Corporation of his decision to retire from the Board, effective at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. Board size reduced from nine to eight members. No disagreement cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -26.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $71.85 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.9% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $71.45. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $70.81 (-22.2% upside). Prior stop was $71.45. Stop-loss: $71.45.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.9% away); Earnings estimates trending DOWN.
Taylor Morrison Home Corporatio trades at a P/E of 10.7 (forward 11.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover TMHC with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $66.
What does Taylor Morrison Home Corporatio do?Taylor Morrison Home Corporation builds single and multi-family homes across entry-level, move-up, and resort lifestyle...
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation builds single and multi-family homes across entry-level, move-up, and resort lifestyle segments under the Taylor Morrison and Esplanade brands, with a Build-to-Rent operation under the Yardly brand. The company closed 12,997 homes generating $7.8 billion in home closings revenue in 2025 at a 22.5% gross margin, with ancillary revenue from mortgage, title, and insurance services.