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Taylor Morrison Home Corporatio (TMHC) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $55.48 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Taylor Morrison is a national homebuilder with $7.8B in 2025 home closings revenue and 12,997 closings, serving entry-level, move-up, and resort lifestyle buyers under Taylor Morrison, Esplanade, and Yardly brands across multiple U.S. markets. Ancillary businesses include TMHF... Read more

$55.48+10.1% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#9 of 16 Residential Construction
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield9.77%
Stop $52.53Target $61.09(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$70.22+26.6%9 analysts
$61.09our TP
$55.48price
$70.22mean
$49
$95

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $55.48 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Val8.3Qual4.3Grw0.0Mom1.1Sent6.5Ins5.0Peer3.3Tech7.5Risk6.54.5OVERALL

Recent Developments — Taylor Morrison Home Corporatio

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 45%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Earnings estimates trending DOWN

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.2
P/E (Fwd)8.6
Mkt Cap$5.2B
EV/EBITDA6.6
Profit Mgn8.8%
ROE11.1%
Rev Growth-26.8%
Beta1.51
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV41%normal
Max Pain$40-27.9% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-17Item 5.02LOW
    Board member David Merritt notified company of intent to retire from the Board effective at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. Not due to any disagreement. Board size reducing from 9 to 8.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -26.8% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -27%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 30, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.6
Quality Rank
4.7
Value Rank
7.8
Attractive P/E vs peers
GatesMomentum 1.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 63d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
30 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $54.15Resistance $65.33

Price Targets

$53
$61
A.Upside+10.1%
A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (63d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TMHC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $55.48 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $52.53. Score 4.5/10, high confidence.

What is the TMHC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $61.09 (+10.1% upside). Prior stop was $52.53. Stop-loss: $52.53.

What are the risks of investing in TMHC?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Is TMHC overvalued or undervalued?

Taylor Morrison Home Corporatio trades at a P/E of 8.2 (forward 8.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TMHC?

17 analysts cover TMHC with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $70.

What does Taylor Morrison Home Corporatio do?Taylor Morrison is a national homebuilder with $7.8B in 2025 home closings revenue and 12,997 closings, serving...

Taylor Morrison is a national homebuilder with $7.8B in 2025 home closings revenue and 12,997 closings, serving entry-level, move-up, and resort lifestyle buyers under Taylor Morrison, Esplanade, and Yardly brands across multiple U.S. markets. Ancillary businesses include TMHF mortgage origination, Inspired Title, and TMIS insurance.

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