Skip to main content

M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

Sell if holding. At $131.34, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.5%; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

The Company commenced homebuilding activities in 1976 marking 2026 as our 50th year in business. Since that time, the Company has sold over 168,200 homes. Unless this Form 10-K otherwise indicates or the context otherwise requires, the terms the "Company," "we," "us" and "our"... Read more

$131.34+3.5% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#2 of 16 Residential Construction
Stop $122.84Target $136.00(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$160.00+21.8%2 analysts
$136.00our TP
$131.34price
$160.00mean
$165

Sell if holding. At $131.34, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.5%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 35%
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.5%
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.8
P/E (Fwd)8.4
Mkt Cap$3.3B
EV/EBITDA7.1
Profit Mgn8.2%
ROE11.6%
Rev Growth-5.7%
Beta1.77
DividendNone
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.46bearish
IV49%normal
Max Pain$95-27.7% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-04Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Exhibit No. | | Description of Exhibit | | 99.1 | | [Press release dated March 4, 2026.](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/799292/000079929226000012/exhibit991pressreleasenorm.htm) | | 104 | | Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document).* *Submitted electroni...
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2M

Revenue shrinking — -5.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.1
Earnings Growth
5.2
Declining revenue: -6%
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $116.78Resistance $138.42

Price Targets

$123
$136
A.Upside+3.5%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MHO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $131.34, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.5%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Prior stop was $122.84. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MHO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $136.00 (+3.5% upside). Prior stop was $122.84. Stop-loss: $122.84.

What are the risks of investing in MHO?

Thin upside margin: 3.5%; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak growth.

Is MHO overvalued or undervalued?

M/I Homes, Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.8 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MHO?

7 analysts cover MHO with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $160.

What does M/I Homes, Inc. do?The Company commenced homebuilding activities in 1976 marking 2026 as our 50th year in business. Since that time, the...

The Company commenced homebuilding activities in 1976 marking 2026 as our 50th year in business. Since that time, the Company has sold over 168,200 homes. Unless this Form 10-K otherwise indicates or the context otherwise requires, the terms the "Company," "we," "us" and "our" refer to M/I Homes, Inc. and its subsidiaries.

Related stocks: TOL (Toll Brothers, Inc.) · GRBK (Green Brick Partners, Inc.) · CVCO (Cavco Industries, Inc.) · SKY (Champion Homes, Inc.) · IBP (Installed Building Products, In)