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M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $123.89: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

The Company commenced homebuilding activities in 1976 marking 2026 as our 50th year in business. Since that time, the Company has sold over 168,200 homes. Unless this Form 10-K otherwise indicates or the context otherwise requires, the terms the "Company," "we," "us" and "our"... Read more

$123.89+9.8% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#6 of 16 Residential Construction
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.41%
Stop $117.68Target $136.00(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$160.00+29.1%2 analysts
$136.00our TP
$123.89price
$160.00mean
$165

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $123.89: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — M/I Homes, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.3
P/E (Fwd)8.0
Mkt Cap$3.2B
EV/EBITDA6.8
Profit Mgn8.2%
ROE11.6%
Rev Growth-5.7%
Beta1.65
DividendNone
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.43bullish
IV45%normal
Max Pain$85-31.4% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-04Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Exhibit No. | | Description of Exhibit | | 99.1 | | [Press release dated March 4, 2026.](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/799292/000079929226000012/exhibit991pressreleasenorm.htm) | | 104 | | Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document).* *Submitted electroni...
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.9
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
3.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2M

Revenue shrinking — -5.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.1
Earnings Growth
5.2
Declining revenue: -6%
GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $121.32Resistance $138.42

Price Targets

$118
$136
A.Upside+9.8%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 1.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MHO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $123.89: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $117.68. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MHO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $136.00 (+9.8% upside). Prior stop was $117.68. Stop-loss: $117.68.

What are the risks of investing in MHO?

Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0).

Is MHO overvalued or undervalued?

M/I Homes, Inc. trades at a P/E of 9.3 (forward 8.0). TrendMatrix value score: 9.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MHO?

7 analysts cover MHO with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $160.

What does M/I Homes, Inc. do?The Company commenced homebuilding activities in 1976 marking 2026 as our 50th year in business. Since that time, the...

The Company commenced homebuilding activities in 1976 marking 2026 as our 50th year in business. Since that time, the Company has sold over 168,200 homes. Unless this Form 10-K otherwise indicates or the context otherwise requires, the terms the "Company," "we," "us" and "our" refer to M/I Homes, Inc. and its subsidiaries.

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