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SYYSysco CorporationSell5.2·$80.40-0.84%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Sysco's distribution business generates an exceptional 82% return on equity and shows strong price momentum, but nearly exclusive dependence on restaurant customers at 60% of revenue, combined with high debt leverage and a recent earnings miss, creates vulnerability to any slowdown in dining demand.

Thesis pillars

  • Price Momentum Trend Continuation
  • High Leverage Free Cash Flow ConcernStable
  • Exceptional Return On EquityStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Sysco Corporation (SYY) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $80.40 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Restaurants (60.0%).

Sysco Corporation, the largest global distributor of food and related products to the foodservice industry, reached $81.4 billion in annual sales in fiscal 2025 while serving approximately 730,000 customer locations. Revenue flows through U.S. Foodservice, International... Read more

$80.40-2.2% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#4 of 6 Food Distribution
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.93%
IncomeYield2.69%(5y avg 2.59%)Payout59.29%sustainable
Stop $77.91Target $83.69(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$90.31+12.3%13 analysts
$83.69our TP
$80.40price
$90.31mean
$78
$100

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $80.40 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Restaurants (60.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 60d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Sysco Corporation

About Sysco Corporation

Sysco Corporation grew sales to an all-time high of $81.4 billion in fiscal 2025 while serving approximately 730,000 customer locations, primarily restaurants, which made up 60% of sales, followed by education/government, healthcare, and travel/leisure customers at 7-8% each. Fresh and frozen meats led its product mix at 19% of sales, and the U.S. Foodservice Operations segment — about 70% of total sales — sources more than 90% of its products domestically.

Sysco distributes a full line of food products — frozen foods, canned and dry goods, fresh meats and seafood, dairy, beverages, imported specialties, and fresh produce — plus non-food items such as paper products, tableware, cookware, and cleaning supplies, through four segments: U.S. Foodservice Operations (Broadline and Specialty businesses including FreshPoint produce, Buckhead Meat & Seafood, and Edward Don restaurant supplies), International Foodservice Operations in Canada, the Bahamas, Costa Rica, Panama, the U.K., France, Ireland, and Sweden, SYGMA's customized distribution to chain restaurants, and Other operations led by its Guest Worldwide hotel-supply business. The company purchases from thousands of domestic and international suppliers, none of which individually accounted for more than 10% of fiscal 2025 purchases, sourcing through both centrally developed procurement programs and direct programs at individual operating sites, and it packages some merchandise under private brands manufactured to its own specifications. No single customer accounted for 10% or more of total sales in fiscal 2025, and most sales orders are filled within 24 hours of placement.

Show full overview

Sysco's margin structure is thinner and more fragile than its scale suggests: the foodservice distribution industry runs on relatively low profit margins, and because a significant portion of sales are priced as the cost of goods plus a fixed markup or fee per case, the company's results can suffer during periods of product-cost deflation even while its gross profit percentage holds steady — the mirror image of the more commonly cited inflation risk. Fuel costs compound that exposure: Sysco requires significant quantities of fuel for its delivery fleet and, while it has partly offset increases through a fuel surcharge program passed to customers, the 10-K warns it may not always be able to pass those costs along.

See also: Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution

From Sysco Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 30, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 202660d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Restaurants (60.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.3
P/E (Fwd)15.1
Mkt Cap$38.8B
EV/EBITDA11.6
Profit Mgn2.1%
ROE77.7%
Rev Growth4.7%
Beta0.64
Dividend2.69%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV45%normal
Max Pain$110+36.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerRestaurants60%
    10-K Item 1: 'Restaurants | 60 | %'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Tom Peck, EVP and Chief Information and Digital Officer, resigned effective April 10, 2026, to accept another opportunity in a different industry. No disagreement with Company operations, policies, or practices cited. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.1
Revenue Growth
3.7
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 60d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $80.32Resistance $85.40

Price Targets

$78
$84
A.Upside-2.2%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.2% upside)
! momentum at 2.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (60d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SYY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $80.40 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: Restaurants (60.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $77.91. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SYY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $83.69 (-2.2% upside). Prior stop was $77.91. Stop-loss: $77.91.

What are the risks of investing in SYY?

Concentration risk — Customer: Restaurants (60.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7).

Is SYY overvalued or undervalued?

Sysco Corporation trades at a P/E of 22.3 (forward 15.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SYY?

22 analysts cover SYY with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $90.

What does Sysco Corporation do?Sysco Corporation, the largest global distributor of food and related products to the foodservice industry, reached...

Sysco Corporation, the largest global distributor of food and related products to the foodservice industry, reached $81.4 billion in annual sales in fiscal 2025 while serving approximately 730,000 customer locations. Revenue flows through U.S. Foodservice, International Foodservice, and SYGMA segments, with restaurants representing 60% of sales and no single customer exceeding 10% of total sales.

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