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PFGCPerformance Food Group CompanySell5.1·$91.67
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Performance Food Group converts income to free cash flow at 224% and carries strong earnings growth potential, but quality scores fall below minimum thresholds at 3.6 out of 10, the stock has missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and prices are at analyst resistance with no upside remaining.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Below Floor↑Improving
  • Exceptional Fcf Conversion→Stable
  • Earnings Miss Pattern 3 Of 4→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) Stock Analysis

SellGrowthModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $91.67: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Performance Food Group distributes more than 250,000 food and food-related products from 155 distribution centers to over 300,000 customer locations across North America, through three segments: Foodservice, Convenience, and Specialty. No single customer exceeded 10% of... Read more

$91.67+17.0% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#5 of 6 Food Distribution
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.03%
Stop $86.97Target $107.21(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.3:1
Analyst target$123.23+34.4%13 analysts
$107.21our TP
$91.67price
$123.23mean
$72
$144

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $91.67: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Performance Food Group Company

About Performance Food Group Company

Performance Food Group distributes more than 250,000 food and food-related products from 155 distribution centers to over 300,000 customer locations across North America, employing approximately 43,000 people. The company operates three segments — Foodservice (89 distribution centers), Convenience (39 centers in the U.S. and Canada), and Specialty (27 centers) — and no single customer accounted for more than 10% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025, 2024, or 2023.

Performance Food Group earns revenue primarily by reselling products purchased from suppliers at a markup — either a percentage over cost or a fixed per-unit markup, depending on the customer contract — with average inventory turning every three-and-a-half weeks to limit exposure to cost swings. Foodservice sells custom-cut meat, seafood, and full product lines to independent and chain restaurants, earning higher gross profit per case from independent customers who use more of the company's higher-margin Performance Brands and value-added services such as menu development and procurement support; chain customers generate lower margins but larger deliveries. Convenience distributes cigarettes, nicotine products, candy, snacks, and general merchandise to convenience stores and similar small-format retailers, while Specialty (formerly Vistar) distributes candy, snacks, and beverages to vending operators, office coffee distributors, theaters, and direct-to-consumer channels using small-parcel carriers. The October 2024 acquisition of Cheney Bros. expanded Foodservice operations in the southeastern United States.

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A significant portion of Performance Food Group's sales volume depends on the distribution of cigarettes and other tobacco products, a category the company itself describes as generally declining amid rising regulation, excise taxes, and the shift toward e-vapor and oral nicotine alternatives that often escape the same excise taxes as conventional cigarettes. The company also discloses hedging only about 15% of the diesel fuel gallons it expects to use over the twelve months following June 28, 2025 via costless collars, leaving roughly 85% of its delivery-fleet fuel exposure to spot-market price swings it would otherwise need to offset through customer surcharges.

See also: Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution

From Performance Food Group Company's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 30, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-25
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202640d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)39.4
P/E (Fwd)13.5
Mkt Cap$14.2B
EV/EBITDA12.9
Profit Mgn0.6%
ROE7.7%
Rev Growth7.3%
Beta0.88
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.57bullish
IV39%normal
Max Pain$80-12.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
1.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Macd
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.3
Operating Margin
0.9
Roa
2.0
Roe
2.6
Moat
4.2
Current Ratio
5.5
Piotroski F
7.8
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 199% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R 3.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 40d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
31 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $88.95Resistance $102.22

Price Targets

$87
$107
A.Upside+17.0%
A.R:R3.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (40d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PFGC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $91.67: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $86.97. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PFGC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $107.21 (+17.0% upside). Prior stop was $86.97. Stop-loss: $86.97.

What are the risks of investing in PFGC?

Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).

Is PFGC overvalued or undervalued?

Performance Food Group Company trades at a P/E of 39.4 (forward 13.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PFGC?

21 analysts cover PFGC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $123.

What does Performance Food Group Company do?Performance Food Group distributes more than 250,000 food and food-related products from 155 distribution centers to...

Performance Food Group distributes more than 250,000 food and food-related products from 155 distribution centers to over 300,000 customer locations across North America, through three segments: Foodservice, Convenience, and Specialty. No single customer exceeded 10% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025, though a significant portion of Convenience segment volume depends on declining cigarette and tobacco product sales.

Related stocks: UNFI (United Natural Foods, Inc.) · USFD (US Foods Holding Corp.) · SYY (Sysco Corporation) · ANDE (The Andersons, Inc.)
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