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Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $89.33: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Performance Food Group distributes 250,000+ food and food-related products from 155 distribution centers to 300,000+ customer locations across North America, including restaurants, schools, hospitals, and convenience stores. Revenue flows through three segments—Foodservice,... Read more

$89.33+14.7% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#2 of 5 Food Distribution
Stop $84.27Target $102.51(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$117.83+31.9%12 analysts
$102.51our TP
$89.33price
$117.83mean
$130

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $89.33: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)39.9
P/E (Fwd)15.0
Mkt Cap$13.8B
EV/EBITDA13.3
Profit Mgn0.6%
ROE7.8%
Rev Growth5.2%
Beta0.94
DividendNone
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.02bullish
IV57%elevated
Max Pain$70-21.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductcigarettes and other tobacco products
    10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our sales volume is dependent upon the distribution of cigarettes and other tobacco products, sales of which are generally declining.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.6
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 6 days

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
2.4
Rsi
4.5
Ma Position
6.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.3
Operating Margin
0.5
Roa
2.0
Roe
2.6
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
5.8
Piotroski F
7.8
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 178% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dA.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $82.00Resistance $94.34

Price Targets

$84
$103
A.Upside+14.8%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PFGC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $89.33: Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $84.27. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PFGC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $102.51 (+14.7% upside). Prior stop was $84.27. Stop-loss: $84.27.

What are the risks of investing in PFGC?

Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is PFGC overvalued or undervalued?

Performance Food Group Company trades at a P/E of 39.9 (forward 15.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PFGC?

21 analysts cover PFGC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $118.

What does Performance Food Group Company do?Performance Food Group distributes 250,000+ food and food-related products from 155 distribution centers to 300,000+...

Performance Food Group distributes 250,000+ food and food-related products from 155 distribution centers to 300,000+ customer locations across North America, including restaurants, schools, hospitals, and convenience stores. Revenue flows through three segments—Foodservice, Convenience, and Specialty—in a low-margin distribution business where scale and supplier promotional allowances drive profitability. The company is one of the largest wholesale consumer products distributors in the convenience retail industry.

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