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US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $92.61, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.2%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

US Foods is a broadline foodservice distributor supplying approximately 250,000 customer locations nationwide with fresh, frozen, and dry food products from thousands of suppliers. Revenue from product distribution to independent restaurants, chain restaurants, healthcare,... Read more

$92.61+6.2% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#1 of 5 Food Distribution
Stop $88.33Target $98.40(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$109.33+18.1%15 analysts
$98.40our TP
$92.61price
$109.33mean
$120

Sell if holding. At $92.61, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.2%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 6.2%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5
Earnings in 7 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)31.0
P/E (Fwd)16.2
Mkt Cap$20.1B
EV/EBITDA15.1
Profit Mgn1.7%
ROE15.3%
Rev Growth3.3%
Beta0.98
DividendNone
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.34bullish
IV48%normal
Max Pain$110+18.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomersingle GPO14%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 14% of our net sales in fiscal year 2025 that were made to customers that are members of a single GPO'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.7
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $88.77Resistance $94.34

Price Targets

$88
$98
A.Upside+6.3%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is USFD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $92.61, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.2%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $88.33. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the USFD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $98.40 (+6.2% upside). Prior stop was $88.33. Stop-loss: $88.33.

What are the risks of investing in USFD?

Thin upside margin: 6.2%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

Is USFD overvalued or undervalued?

US Foods Holding Corp. trades at a P/E of 31.0 (forward 16.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about USFD?

23 analysts cover USFD with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $109.

What does US Foods Holding Corp. do?US Foods is a broadline foodservice distributor supplying approximately 250,000 customer locations nationwide with...

US Foods is a broadline foodservice distributor supplying approximately 250,000 customer locations nationwide with fresh, frozen, and dry food products from thousands of suppliers. Revenue from product distribution to independent restaurants, chain restaurants, healthcare, hospitality, and government customers; no single customer exceeds 2% of sales.

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