US Foods has maintained strong price momentum above its 200-day moving average with rising volume and 3 earnings beats in 4 quarters, but thin business quality metrics, sub-1% operating margins, and an asymmetry ratio well below the minimum acceptable threshold suggest the current price offers poor risk-adjusted entry.
Thesis pillars
- Momentum Breadth Strength↑Improving
- Thin Margins Quality Floor→Stable
- Earnings Beat Consistency↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026· older than 90 days
US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $109.93: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 5.38; Below-average business quality.
US Foods distributes food and foodservice products to approximately 250,000 customer locations through 70+ distribution facilities and a fleet of 6,500+ trucks. The company generated $39.4 billion in net sales in fiscal year 2025 with no single customer exceeding 2% of total... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $109.93: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 5.38; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Nov 5, 2026Recent Developments — US Foods Holding Corp.
Latest news
- NEWS Dow Jumps Over 1,500 Points After Midterms: Investor Sentiment Improves, Greed Index Moves To ‘Fear’ Zone — benzinga Nov 5, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Qualcomm, US Foods And 3 Stocks To Watch Heading Into Thursday — benzinga Nov 5, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Teamsters Local 282 Members Authorize Strike at US Foods — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 negative
- NEWS US Foods Holding Corp. Reports Fiscal Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Teamsters Union Calls for End to Alleged Anti-Union Tactics at US Foods — fiscal.ai Oct 29, 2026 negative
Latest item Nov 5, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerGPO customers27%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 27% of our net sales in fiscal year 2025 were made to customers under terms negotiated by GPOs'
- LOWCustomersingle largest GPO customers14%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 14% of our net sales in fiscal year 2025 that were made to customers that are members of a single GPO'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $109.93: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 5.38; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $103.03. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $104.40 reached (−5.0% from $109.93); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $103.03. Stop-loss: $103.03.
Target reached (-5.0% upside); Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).
US Foods Holding Corp. trades at a P/E of 33.8 (forward 19.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts rate USFD, with a consensus score of 4.2/5. 15 analysts publish price targets averaging $116.
What does US Foods Holding Corp. do?US Foods distributes food and foodservice products to approximately 250,000 customer locations through 70+ distribution...
US Foods distributes food and foodservice products to approximately 250,000 customer locations through 70+ distribution facilities and a fleet of 6,500+ trucks. The company generated $39.4 billion in net sales in fiscal year 2025 with no single customer exceeding 2% of total sales; group purchasing organizations represented about 27% of net sales, with roughly 14% from customers of a single GPO.