US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $82.05: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 2.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.
US Foods is a national foodservice broadline distributor supplying ~250,000 customer locations (restaurants, healthcare, hospitality, government) with ~250,000 products from thousands of suppliers. Net sales of $39.4B in fiscal 2025; no single customer exceeds 2% of net sales,... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $82.05: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 2.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
Recent Developments — US Foods Holding Corp.
Latest news
- USFD Launches SIGNATURE Program to Support Hospitality Operators - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- US Foods (USFD) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- US Foods (USFD) Projected to Post Quarterly Earnings on Thursday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- AB Large Cap Value Fund's US Foods Holding Corp(USFD) Holding History - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- UBS Group AG Lowers Holdings in US Foods Holding Corp. $USFD - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomersingle GPO14%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 14% of our net sales in fiscal year 2025 that were made to customers that are members of a single GPO'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $82.05: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 2.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $79.33. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $97.26 (+18.5% upside). Prior stop was $79.33. Stop-loss: $79.33.
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 0.2%), Material insider selling (8 sells, 0.31% of cap).
US Foods Holding Corp. trades at a P/E of 27.6 (forward 14.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover USFD with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $108.
What does US Foods Holding Corp. do?US Foods is a national foodservice broadline distributor supplying ~250,000 customer locations (restaurants,...
US Foods is a national foodservice broadline distributor supplying ~250,000 customer locations (restaurants, healthcare, hospitality, government) with ~250,000 products from thousands of suppliers. Net sales of $39.4B in fiscal 2025; no single customer exceeds 2% of net sales, though GPO-negotiated contracts represent ~27% of net sales.