US Foods has maintained strong price momentum above its 200-day moving average with rising volume and 3 earnings beats in 4 quarters, but thin business quality metrics, sub-1% operating margins, and an asymmetry ratio well below the minimum acceptable threshold suggest the current price offers poor risk-adjusted entry.
Thesis pillars
- Momentum Breadth Strength↓Deteriorating
- Thin Margins Quality Floor→Stable
- Earnings Beat Consistency→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $93.33: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 2.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
US Foods distributes food and foodservice products to approximately 250,000 customer locations through 70+ distribution facilities and a fleet of 6,500+ trucks. The company generated $39.4 billion in net sales in fiscal year 2025 with no single customer exceeding 2% of total... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $93.33: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 2.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 41d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-25Recent Developments — US Foods Holding Corp.
Latest news
- NEWS USFD Launches SIGNATURE Program to Support Hospitality Operators - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS US Foods (USFD) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS US Foods (USFD) Projected to Post Quarterly Earnings on Thursday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS AB Large Cap Value Fund's US Foods Holding Corp(USFD) Holding History - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS UBS Group AG Lowers Holdings in US Foods Holding Corp. $USFD - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-09-26T04:36:57Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerGPO customers27%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 27% of our net sales in fiscal year 2025 were made to customers under terms negotiated by GPOs'
- LOWCustomersingle largest GPO customers14%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 14% of our net sales in fiscal year 2025 that were made to customers that are members of a single GPO'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $93.33: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10 and A.R:R 2.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $87.71. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $104.51 (+12.0% upside). Prior stop was $87.71. Stop-loss: $87.71.
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).
US Foods Holding Corp. trades at a P/E of 28.9 (forward 16.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover USFD with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $116.
What does US Foods Holding Corp. do?US Foods distributes food and foodservice products to approximately 250,000 customer locations through 70+ distribution...
US Foods distributes food and foodservice products to approximately 250,000 customer locations through 70+ distribution facilities and a fleet of 6,500+ trucks. The company generated $39.4 billion in net sales in fiscal year 2025 with no single customer exceeding 2% of total sales; group purchasing organizations represented about 27% of net sales, with roughly 14% from customers of a single GPO.