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US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $82.05: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 2.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

US Foods is a national foodservice broadline distributor supplying ~250,000 customer locations (restaurants, healthcare, hospitality, government) with ~250,000 products from thousands of suppliers. Net sales of $39.4B in fiscal 2025; no single customer exceeds 2% of net sales,... Read more

$82.05+18.5% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#3 of 5 Food Distribution
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.11%
Stop $79.33Target $97.26(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.8:1
Analyst target$108.07+31.7%15 analysts
$97.26our TP
$82.05price
$108.07mean
$120

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $82.05: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 2.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — US Foods Holding Corp.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 0.2%), Material insider selling (8 sells, 0.31% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.6
P/E (Fwd)14.8
Mkt Cap$18.1B
EV/EBITDA13.6
Profit Mgn1.7%
ROE15.1%
Rev Growth2.8%
Beta0.90
DividendNone
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.20bullish
IV34%normal
Max Pain$70-14.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomersingle GPO14%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 14% of our net sales in fiscal year 2025 that were made to customers that are members of a single GPO'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Volume
4.3
Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.2
Earnings Growth
3.2

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.9
Net Margin
0.9
Roa
3.7
Moat
4.2
Current Ratio
4.4
Roe
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Fcf Quality
7.5
No competitive moat
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R 2.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
29 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $81.78Resistance $95.15

Price Targets

$79
$97
A.Upside+18.5%
A.R:R2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 0.2%), Material insider selling (8 sells, 0.31% of cap)
! Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is USFD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $82.05: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10 and A.R:R 2.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $79.33. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the USFD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $97.26 (+18.5% upside). Prior stop was $79.33. Stop-loss: $79.33.

What are the risks of investing in USFD?

Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 0.2%), Material insider selling (8 sells, 0.31% of cap).

Is USFD overvalued or undervalued?

US Foods Holding Corp. trades at a P/E of 27.6 (forward 14.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about USFD?

23 analysts cover USFD with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $108.

What does US Foods Holding Corp. do?US Foods is a national foodservice broadline distributor supplying ~250,000 customer locations (restaurants,...

US Foods is a national foodservice broadline distributor supplying ~250,000 customer locations (restaurants, healthcare, hospitality, government) with ~250,000 products from thousands of suppliers. Net sales of $39.4B in fiscal 2025; no single customer exceeds 2% of net sales, though GPO-negotiated contracts represent ~27% of net sales.

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