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Sysco Corporation (SYY) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Food Distribution

Sell if holding. At $73.52, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.3%; Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. Foodservice Operations (70.0%).

Sysco is the largest global foodservice distributor with $81.4 billion in fiscal 2025 revenues, serving approximately 730,000 customer locations including restaurants, healthcare, and lodging through U.S. Foodservice, International Foodservice, SYGMA, and other operations. No... Read more

$73.52+6.3% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#2 of 5 Food Distribution
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield5.31%
IncomeYield2.99%(5y avg 2.56%)Payout60.00%sustainable
Stop $70.92Target $78.18(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$86.87+18.2%15 analysts
$78.18our TP
$73.52price
$86.87mean
$100

Sell if holding. At $73.52, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.3%; Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. Foodservice Operations (70.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Sysco Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. Foodservice Operations (70.0%)
Thin upside margin: 6.3%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.4
P/E (Fwd)14.8
Mkt Cap$35.2B
EV/EBITDA10.7
Profit Mgn2.1%
ROE81.9%
Rev Growth4.7%
Beta0.66
Dividend2.99%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.29bullish
IV30%normal
Max Pain$100+36.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicU.S. Foodservice Operations70%
    10-K Item 1: 'For our U.S. Foodservice Operations, which represents approximately 70% of our total sales, over 90% of products are purchased domestically.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-05Item 5.02HIGH
    Kenny Cheung (EVP/CFO) resigned effective March 6, 2026 to join a Fortune 10 company. Brandon Sewell appointed interim CFO. Company initiated search for permanent CFO; no permanent successor named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-02Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Tom Peck (EVP, Chief Information and Digital Officer) resigned effective April 10, 2026 to accept an opportunity in a different industry. No disagreement with the Company cited. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.7

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MDividend: 299.0%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.5
Ma Position
1.5
Volume
2.6
Rsi
4.5
Macd
9.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $71.56Resistance $76.90

Price Targets

$71
$78
A.Upside+6.3%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SYY stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $73.52, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.3%; Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. Foodservice Operations (70.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 51. Prior stop was $70.92. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the SYY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $78.18 (+6.3% upside). Prior stop was $70.92. Stop-loss: $70.92.

What are the risks of investing in SYY?

Concentration risk — Geographic: U.S. Foodservice Operations (70.0%); Thin upside margin: 6.3%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4).

Is SYY overvalued or undervalued?

Sysco Corporation trades at a P/E of 20.4 (forward 14.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SYY?

23 analysts cover SYY with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $87.

What does Sysco Corporation do?Sysco is the largest global foodservice distributor with $81.4 billion in fiscal 2025 revenues, serving approximately...

Sysco is the largest global foodservice distributor with $81.4 billion in fiscal 2025 revenues, serving approximately 730,000 customer locations including restaurants, healthcare, and lodging through U.S. Foodservice, International Foodservice, SYGMA, and other operations. No single customer or supplier accounted for 10% or more of sales or purchases.

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