SPS Commerce has delivered 4 consecutive earnings beats with an average surprise of nearly 15%, exceptional free cash flow at 167% of net income, and a perfect Piotroski score of 9 out of 9, but the stock is in a confirmed death-cross downtrend with the 200-day moving average declining at -11.1% per month and asymmetry is unfavorable at current prices.
Thesis pillars
- Product Concentration Single Vertical→Stable
- Four Quarter Earnings Beat Consistency→Stable
- Exceptional Cash Conversion Piotroski→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Technology · Software - Application
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $59.06, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: cloud-based supply chain management products; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
SPS Commerce operates a cloud-based supply chain network for retailers, suppliers, and logistics providers, generating $751.5 million in fiscal 2025 revenue, 96% recurring. The company's largest customer was less than 1% of revenues, with 2,948 employees serving a fragmented... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $59.06, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: cloud-based supply chain management products; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About SPS Commerce, Inc.
About SPS Commerce, Inc.
SPS Commerce reached $751.5 million in revenue for fiscal 2025, marking its 100th consecutive quarter of revenue growth, with recurring revenues accounting for 96% of that total. The supply chain network company employed 2,948 people worldwide, with 78% of the workforce in North America. The largest single customer accounted for less than 1% of revenues—a reflection of a client base spanning thousands of trading partners across retail, grocery, distribution, and logistics.
SPS Commerce generates revenue primarily through subscription-based cloud products—Fulfillment, which automates order-to-invoice workflows, and Analytics, which delivers sell-through data insights—sold to retailers, grocers, distributors, suppliers, manufacturers, and logistics firms. Distribution channels include an employed global sales force, channel partners such as Microsoft, NetSuite, Oracle, SAP, and Sage, and referrals generated through the Relationship Management product when retailers bring new suppliers into compliance. In 2025 the company acquired Carbon6 Technologies Inc., extending the platform into revenue-recovery tools for Amazon.com marketplace sellers. Competition comes from multi-tenant cloud vendors, traditional on-premise software providers whose customers face high switching costs from existing infrastructure, and managed-service firms that require customers to operate their own technology.
Show full overview
The value of SPS Commerce's network, cited in the 10-K as increasing 'exponentially with scale,' creates operational switching costs distinct from contractual lock-in: most recurring revenue agreements allow cancellation with only 30 to 90 days' notice, meaning retention depends on demonstrated indispensability. Each new participant gains immediate transaction capability with all existing connections, and existing members gain access to the entrant—compounding the value of the network over time. The company's compliance logic, accumulated over more than 20 years, is difficult for single-tenant on-premise competitors to replicate at equivalent breadth across thousands of retailer mappings.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From SPS Commerce, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — SPS Commerce, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS How Conestoga’s SPSC Stake Cut and Softer 2026 Outlook Will Impact SPS Commerce (SPSC) Investors - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Conestoga Capital Advisors Sells $45 Million Stake in SPS Commerce - HarianBasis.co — HarianBasis.co negative
- NEWS Should You Consider Selling Your Position in SPS Commerce (SPSC)? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS SPS Commerce (SPSC) Tops Q1 Earnings Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS SPS Commerce SPSC Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail neutral
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductcloud-based supply chain management products10-K Item 1A: 'We derive, and expect to continue to derive, substantially all of our revenues from providing cloud-based supply chain management products'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-21Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO Kimberly Nelson's retirement date set as June 1, 2026; successor Joseph Del Preto had already assumed CFO role on March 16, 2026. Compensation & Talent Committee waived the six-month notice requirement for equity award retirement treatment.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-14Item 5.02LOWPSU award agreements for all executive officers amended to double-trigger change-in-control vesting, effective April 10, 2026. No officer departures; compensatory arrangement change only.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $59.06, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: cloud-based supply chain management products; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $59.24 (+0.3%), stop $54.93 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $59.24 (+0.3% upside). Target $59.24 (+0.3%), stop $54.93 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $54.93.
Concentration risk — Product: cloud-based supply chain management products; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.9%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
SPS Commerce, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.5 (forward 11.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Hold.
18 analysts cover SPSC with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $68.
What does SPS Commerce, Inc. do?SPS Commerce operates a cloud-based supply chain network for retailers, suppliers, and logistics providers, generating...
SPS Commerce operates a cloud-based supply chain network for retailers, suppliers, and logistics providers, generating $751.5 million in fiscal 2025 revenue, 96% recurring. The company's largest customer was less than 1% of revenues, with 2,948 employees serving a fragmented global client base. Network effects create switching costs as each new participant gains immediate transaction access to all existing connections.