SPS Commerce has delivered 4 consecutive earnings beats with an average surprise of nearly 15%, exceptional free cash flow at 167% of net income, and a perfect Piotroski score of 9 out of 9, but the stock is in a confirmed death-cross downtrend with the 200-day moving average declining at -11.1% per month and asymmetry is unfavorable at current prices.
Thesis pillars
- Product Concentration Single Vertical↓Deteriorating
- Four Quarter Earnings Beat Consistency↑Improving
- Exceptional Cash Conversion Piotroski↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026· older than 90 days
SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $85.24 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: cloud-based supply chain management products.
SPS Commerce operates a cloud-based supply chain network for retailers, suppliers, and logistics providers, generating $751.5 million in fiscal 2025 revenue, 96% recurring. The company's largest customer was less than 1% of revenues, with 2,948 employees serving a fragmented... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $85.24 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: cloud-based supply chain management products. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 98d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About SPS Commerce, Inc.
About SPS Commerce, Inc.
SPS Commerce reached $751.5 million in revenue for fiscal 2025, marking its 100th consecutive quarter of revenue growth, with recurring revenues accounting for 96% of that total. The supply chain network company employed 2,948 people worldwide, with 78% of the workforce in North America. The largest single customer accounted for less than 1% of revenues—a reflection of a client base spanning thousands of trading partners across retail, grocery, distribution, and logistics.
SPS Commerce generates revenue primarily through subscription-based cloud products—Fulfillment, which automates order-to-invoice workflows, and Analytics, which delivers sell-through data insights—sold to retailers, grocers, distributors, suppliers, manufacturers, and logistics firms. Distribution channels include an employed global sales force, channel partners such as Microsoft, NetSuite, Oracle, SAP, and Sage, and referrals generated through the Relationship Management product when retailers bring new suppliers into compliance. In 2025 the company acquired Carbon6 Technologies Inc., extending the platform into revenue-recovery tools for Amazon.com marketplace sellers. Competition comes from multi-tenant cloud vendors, traditional on-premise software providers whose customers face high switching costs from existing infrastructure, and managed-service firms that require customers to operate their own technology.
Show full overview
The value of SPS Commerce's network, cited in the 10-K as increasing 'exponentially with scale,' creates operational switching costs distinct from contractual lock-in: most recurring revenue agreements allow cancellation with only 30 to 90 days' notice, meaning retention depends on demonstrated indispensability. Each new participant gains immediate transaction capability with all existing connections, and existing members gain access to the entrant—compounding the value of the network over time. The company's compliance logic, accumulated over more than 20 years, is difficult for single-tenant on-premise competitors to replicate at equivalent breadth across thousands of retailer mappings.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From SPS Commerce, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 30, 2026Recent Developments — SPS Commerce, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS DA Davidson Maintains Neutral Rating on SPS Commerce, Raises Price Target — fiscal.ai Oct 30, 2026 positive
- NEWS DA Davidson Maintains Neutral on SPS Commerce, Raises Price Target to $70 — benzinga Oct 30, 2026 positive
- NEWS SPS Commerce (SPSC) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates - Yahoo Finance Australia — Yahoo Finance Australia Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Maintains SPS Commerce(SPSC.US) With Sell Rating, Raises Target Price to $74 - Moomoo — Moomoo Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Citi Maintains SPS Commerce(SPSC.US) With Buy Rating, Maintains Target Price $99 - Moomoo — Moomoo Oct 21, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 30, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:44:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductcloud-based supply chain management products10-K Item 1A: 'We derive, and expect to continue to derive, substantially all of our revenues from providing cloud-based supply chain management products'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-21Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO Kimberly Nelson's retirement date set as June 1, 2026; successor Joseph Del Preto had already assumed CFO role on March 16, 2026. Compensation & Talent Committee waived the six-month notice requirement for equity award retirement treatment.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-14Item 5.02LOWPSU award agreements for all executive officers amended to double-trigger change-in-control vesting, effective April 10, 2026. No officer departures; compensatory arrangement change only.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $85.24 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: cloud-based supply chain management products. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $79.27. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $73.63 reached (−13.6% from $85.24); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $79.27. Stop-loss: $79.27.
Concentration risk — Product: cloud-based supply chain management products; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
SPS Commerce, Inc. trades at a P/E of 38.1 (forward 15.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
19 analysts rate SPSC, with a consensus score of 3.5/5. 11 analysts publish price targets averaging $85.
What does SPS Commerce, Inc. do?SPS Commerce operates a cloud-based supply chain network for retailers, suppliers, and logistics providers, generating...
SPS Commerce operates a cloud-based supply chain network for retailers, suppliers, and logistics providers, generating $751.5 million in fiscal 2025 revenue, 96% recurring. The company's largest customer was less than 1% of revenues, with 2,948 employees serving a fragmented global client base. Network effects create switching costs as each new participant gains immediate transaction access to all existing connections.