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SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. At $52.50, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

SPS Commerce operates a cloud-based supply chain network connecting retailers, suppliers, and logistics providers globally, enabling trading partner compliance and order automation. It generated $751.5M in revenue in 2025 (96% recurring), with no single customer exceeding 1% of... Read more

$52.50+12.8% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#31 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield7.78%
Stop $48.83Target $59.24(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$68.09+29.7%11 analysts
$59.24our TP
$52.50price
$68.09mean
$103

Sell if holding. At $52.50, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Val7.8Qual6.8Grw7.0Mom3.4Sent6.0Ins3.9Peer5.5Tech4.7Risk4.65.9OVERALL

Recent Developments — SPS Commerce, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -12.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.2
P/E (Fwd)10.2
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA10.2
Profit Mgn11.9%
ROE9.7%
Rev Growth5.8%
Beta0.58
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.50bearish
IV55%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-14Item 5.02LOW
    All outstanding PSU awards amended to standardize double-trigger vesting across 2024, 2025, and 2026 grants, effective April 10, 2026. Compensatory arrangement change; no officer departure.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-12Item 1.01MEDIUM
    Cooperation Agreement with activist investor Anson Funds: board expanded to 10, Michael J. McConnell and Fumbi Chima appointed as directors. Anson agreed to standstill and vote with board through 2027 nomination deadline.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Joseph Del Preto appointed EVP & CFO effective March 16, 2026, succeeding Kimberly Nelson who announced retirement. Del Preto previously CFO of Sprout Social since July 2017. Clean handoff.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.4
Rsi
4.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -12.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
43 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $49.04Resistance $59.83

Price Targets

$49
$59
A.Upside+12.8%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SPSC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $52.50, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $48.83. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SPSC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $59.24 (+12.8% upside). Prior stop was $48.83. Stop-loss: $48.83.

What are the risks of investing in SPSC?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -12.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is SPSC overvalued or undervalued?

SPS Commerce, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.2 (forward 10.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SPSC?

19 analysts cover SPSC with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $68.

What does SPS Commerce, Inc. do?SPS Commerce operates a cloud-based supply chain network connecting retailers, suppliers, and logistics providers...

SPS Commerce operates a cloud-based supply chain network connecting retailers, suppliers, and logistics providers globally, enabling trading partner compliance and order automation. It generated $751.5M in revenue in 2025 (96% recurring), with no single customer exceeding 1% of total revenues.

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