SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the SPSC stock price target?

Entry $52.03, take-profit $68.57 (+29.2% upside). Target $68.57 (+23.6%), stop $47.34 (−17.2%), Setup A.R:R 4.2:1.

Q: What are the risks of investing in SPSC?

Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk; Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA.

Q: Is SPSC overvalued or undervalued?

SPS Commerce, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.4 (forward 10.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Overall verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

Q: What do analysts say about SPSC?

19 analysts cover SPSC with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $79.

Recovery setup

Buy WaitModerate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-01

Technology · Software - Application

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

SPS Commerce operates a global cloud-based supply chain network connecting retailers, brands, distributors, and logistics providers via EDI and analytics solutions. It generated $751.5M in 2025 revenues, with 96% from recurring customers and 100 consecutive quarters of revenue... Read more

$55.49+29.2% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#7 of 96 Software - Application

Entry $52.03(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $47.34Target $68.57(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.7:1Setup A.R:R 4.2:1

Analyst target$78.82+42.0%11 analysts

$68.57our TP

$55.49price

$78.82mean

$110

Wait for pullback to $52.03. Below 200-day MA (death cross); also weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $55.49. Engine's entry $52.03 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

No bear case signals

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.4

P/E (Fwd)10.9

Mkt Cap$2.1B

EV/EBITDA10.9

Profit Mgn12.4%

ROE10.2%

Rev Growth12.7%

Beta0.61

DividendNone

Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C6.33bearish

IV82%elevated

Max Pain$45-18.9% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-04-14Item 5.02LOW
Compensation Committee approved amendment of all outstanding PSU awards on April 10, 2026 to standardize change-in-control vesting, aligning 2024 single-trigger grants with double-trigger terms used in 2025 and 2026.
SEC filing →
2026-02-12Item 1.01MEDIUM
SPS Commerce entered cooperation agreement with Anson Funds on Feb 12, 2026, appointing Michael J. McConnell and Fumbi Chima to the Board; Anson agreed to standstill provisions and to vote per Board recommendations at 2026 AGM.
SEC filing →
2026-02-12Item 5.02MEDIUM
CFO Kimberly Nelson announced retirement. Joseph Del Preto (formerly Sprout Social CFO) appointed EVP & CFO effective March 16, 2026. Clean handoff with transition period. No disagreement cited.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value8.015%1.20

Quality6.815%1.02

Growth7.815%1.17

Momentum5.010%0.50

Sentiment6.310%0.63

Insider Activity3.910%0.39

Peer Rank6.110%0.61

Technical Setup3.85%0.19

Risk Profile4.25%0.21

Catalyst7.55%0.38

Overall (Σ contributions)6.29

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position

0.0

Support Resistance

4.9

Gap

5.0

Bollinger

5.1

GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5A.R:R 2.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive

RSI

62 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $50.55Resistance $60.06

Price Targets

$47

$52

$69

A.Upside+23.6%

A.R:R2.7:1

Setup A.R:R (at entry)4.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d

Earnings

4/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is SPSC stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $52.03. Below 200-day MA (death cross); also weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $55.49. Engine's entry $52.03 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $68.57 (+23.6%), stop $47.34 (−17.2%), Setup A.R:R 4.2:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SPSC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $68.57 (+29.2% upside). Target $68.57 (+23.6%), stop $47.34 (−17.2%), Setup A.R:R 4.2:1. Stop-loss: $47.34.

Is SPSC overvalued or undervalued?

SPS Commerce, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.4 (forward 10.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about SPSC?

19 analysts cover SPSC with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $79.

What does SPS Commerce, Inc. do?SPS Commerce operates a global cloud-based supply chain network connecting retailers, brands, distributors, and...