Suburban Propane Partners trades at an attractive forward price-to-earnings of 8.9 times and is near technical oversold levels with RSI at 17, but two consecutive earnings misses, negative momentum with falling on-balance volume, and a 41% margin of safety overshoot relative to the analyst target all suggest the valuation discount may be warranted.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Value Forward Pe→Stable
- Extreme Oversold Bounce Potential↓Deteriorating
- Consecutive Earnings Misses↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (SPH) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.75: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Suburban Propane Partners is the third-largest retail propane marketer in the United States, serving approximately 1.0 million residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural customers through about 750 locations in 42 states, concentrated along the east and west coasts,... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.75: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Suburban Propane Partners, L.P.
About Suburban Propane Partners, L.P.
Suburban Propane Partners served approximately 1.0 million residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural customers through roughly 750 locations in 42 states as of September 27, 2025, with operations concentrated along the U.S. east and west coasts, the Midwest, and Alaska. The partnership is the third-largest retail propane marketer in the country by gallons sold, operating three reportable segments — Propane, Fuel Oil and Refined Fuels, and Natural Gas and Electricity — plus a Suburban Renewable Energy platform investing in RNG, hydrogen, and low-carbon fuels. It sold approximately 400.5 million gallons of propane and 16.5 million gallons of fuel oil and refined fuels during fiscal 2025.
Suburban's propane revenue splits across seven customer markets, with 93% of fiscal 2025 gallons sold at retail — 43% residential, 39% commercial, 8% industrial, 6% government, and 4% agricultural — and the remaining 7% from risk-management and wholesale activity; no single customer reached 10% of propane or fuel oil revenue. Supply runs through roughly 45 wholesalers at about 140 points across the U.S. and Canada under mostly one-year contracts, but purchasing is far more concentrated than sales: Energy Transfer LP supplied approximately 30% of total propane purchases in fiscal 2025 and Targa Liquids Marketing and Trade LLC another 12%, with 85% of purchases sourced domestically and 100% from North America. The partnership manages propane price volatility through forward options and swap agreements under a formal Hedging and Risk Management Policy, and stores inventory at its owned Elk Grove, California facility and smaller sites to buffer seasonal demand swings.
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Suburban's own disclosure frames Energy Transfer and Targa together as a manageable but real concentration: the two suppliers combined for 42% of fiscal 2025 propane purchases, and while the company states it could replace either source without material operational disruption, it also acknowledges that acquiring and transporting replacement supply could cost more and pressure margins, at least in the short term. That risk sits alongside a renewable-energy push that carries its own counterparty dependencies — the Adirondack Farms biodigester and Columbus, Ohio RNG upgrade projects were both still under development as of the filing, with completion expected in the first half of fiscal 2026, meaning near-term renewable output depends on construction timelines rather than on operating assets already generating revenue.
See also: Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
From Suburban Propane Partners, L.P.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — Suburban Propane Partners, L.P.
Latest news
- NEWS No further action by police after probe into SPH Media’s circulation figures - The Business Times — The Business Times neutral
- NEWS Suburban Propane faces earnings test as analysts turn cautious By Investing.com - Investing.com India — Investing.com India negative
- NEWS From Cambodia scam empire scoop to CDL 'family tree': BT journalists, artists win SPH Media awards - The Business Times — The Business Times neutral
- NEWS Suburban Propane Partners (SPH) Projected to Release Earnings on Thursday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS KMD:ASX Announcement - SPH Notice - New Zealand Superannuation Fund Nominees Ltd - 30 Apr 2026 - Market Index — Market Index neutral
Generated 2026-08-15T13:12:18Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMSupplierEnergy Transfer LP30%10-K Item 1: 'Energy Transfer LP ("ET") and Targa Liquids Marketing and Trade LLC ("Targa") provided approximately 30% and 12% of our total propane purchases, respectively.'
- LOWSupplierTarga Liquids Marketing and Trade LLC12%10-K Item 1: 'Energy Transfer LP ("ET") and Targa Liquids Marketing and Trade LLC ("Targa") provided approximately 30% and 12% of our total propane purchases, respectively.'
- HIGHGeographicNorth America (propane supply)100%10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 85% of our total propane purchases were from domestic suppliers and 100% came from North America in fiscal 2025.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.75: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $16.77. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $18.19 (-18.6% upside). Prior stop was $16.77. Stop-loss: $16.77.
Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (propane supply) (100.0%); Target reached (-18.6% upside); Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).
Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. trades at a P/E of 9.2 (forward 8.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover SPH with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $17.
What does Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. do?Suburban Propane Partners is the third-largest retail propane marketer in the United States, serving approximately 1.0...
Suburban Propane Partners is the third-largest retail propane marketer in the United States, serving approximately 1.0 million residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural customers through about 750 locations in 42 states, concentrated along the east and west coasts, the Midwest, and Alaska. Beyond its core Propane segment, the partnership operates Fuel Oil and Refined Fuels and Natural Gas and Electricity segments and invests in renewable natural gas, hydrogen, and low-carbon fuel platforms; no single customer accounted for 10% or more of propane or fuel oil revenue in fiscal 2025.