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SPHSuburban Propane Partners, L.P.Sell5.2·$17.51+0.63%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Suburban Propane Partners trades at an attractive forward price-to-earnings of 8.9 times and is near technical oversold levels with RSI at 17, but two consecutive earnings misses, negative momentum with falling on-balance volume, and a 41% margin of safety overshoot relative to the analyst target all suggest the valuation discount may be warranted.

Thesis pillars

  • Deep Value Forward PeStable
  • Extreme Oversold Bounce PotentialStable
  • Consecutive Earnings MissesStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (SPH) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.51 — A.R:R is negative (-2.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (propane supply) (100.0%).

Suburban Propane Partners is the third-largest retail propane marketer in the United States, serving approximately 1.0 million residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural customers through about 750 locations in 42 states, concentrated along the east and west coasts,... Read more

$17.51+9.8% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#7 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield9.03%
IncomeYield7.42%(5y avg 7.46%)Payout66.33%
Stop $16.37Target $19.23(resistance)A.R:R -2.7:1
Analyst target$17.00-2.9%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.51 — A.R:R is negative (-2.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (propane supply) (100.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 31d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Suburban Propane Partners, L.P.

About Suburban Propane Partners, L.P.

Suburban Propane Partners served approximately 1.0 million residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural customers through roughly 750 locations in 42 states as of September 27, 2025, with operations concentrated along the U.S. east and west coasts, the Midwest, and Alaska. The partnership is the third-largest retail propane marketer in the country by gallons sold, operating three reportable segments — Propane, Fuel Oil and Refined Fuels, and Natural Gas and Electricity — plus a Suburban Renewable Energy platform investing in RNG, hydrogen, and low-carbon fuels. It sold approximately 400.5 million gallons of propane and 16.5 million gallons of fuel oil and refined fuels during fiscal 2025.

Suburban's propane revenue splits across seven customer markets, with 93% of fiscal 2025 gallons sold at retail — 43% residential, 39% commercial, 8% industrial, 6% government, and 4% agricultural — and the remaining 7% from risk-management and wholesale activity; no single customer reached 10% of propane or fuel oil revenue. Supply runs through roughly 45 wholesalers at about 140 points across the U.S. and Canada under mostly one-year contracts, but purchasing is far more concentrated than sales: Energy Transfer LP supplied approximately 30% of total propane purchases in fiscal 2025 and Targa Liquids Marketing and Trade LLC another 12%, with 85% of purchases sourced domestically and 100% from North America. The partnership manages propane price volatility through forward options and swap agreements under a formal Hedging and Risk Management Policy, and stores inventory at its owned Elk Grove, California facility and smaller sites to buffer seasonal demand swings.

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Suburban's own disclosure frames Energy Transfer and Targa together as a manageable but real concentration: the two suppliers combined for 42% of fiscal 2025 propane purchases, and while the company states it could replace either source without material operational disruption, it also acknowledges that acquiring and transporting replacement supply could cost more and pressure margins, at least in the short term. That risk sits alongside a renewable-energy push that carries its own counterparty dependencies — the Adirondack Farms biodigester and Columbus, Ohio RNG upgrade projects were both still under development as of the filing, with completion expected in the first half of fiscal 2026, meaning near-term renewable output depends on construction timelines rather than on operating assets already generating revenue.

See also: Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

From Suburban Propane Partners, L.P.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-06
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202631d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 40%
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (propane supply) (100.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.9
P/E (Fwd)8.9
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA8.9
Profit Mgn9.6%
ROE18.8%
Rev Growth-6.2%
Beta0.38
Dividend7.42%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.53bullish
IV39%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierEnergy Transfer LP30%
    10-K Item 1: 'Energy Transfer LP ("ET") and Targa Liquids Marketing and Trade LLC ("Targa") provided approximately 30% and 12% of our total propane purchases, respectively.'
  • LOWSupplierTarga Liquids Marketing and Trade LLC12%
    10-K Item 1: 'Energy Transfer LP ("ET") and Targa Liquids Marketing and Trade LLC ("Targa") provided approximately 30% and 12% of our total propane purchases, respectively.'
  • HIGHGeographicNorth America (propane supply)100%
    10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 85% of our total propane purchases were from domestic suppliers and 100% came from North America in fiscal 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Revenue shrinking — -6.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.0
Earnings Growth
1.6
Declining revenue: -6%

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
1.1
Surprise Avg
1.8
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -2.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 31d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $16.53Resistance $19.62

Price Targets

$16
$19
A.Upside+9.8%
A.R:R-2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-17.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (31d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SPH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.51 — A.R:R is negative (-2.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (propane supply) (100.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $16.37. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SPH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.23 (+9.8% upside). Prior stop was $16.37. Stop-loss: $16.37.

What are the risks of investing in SPH?

Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (propane supply) (100.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.8): -1.0.

Is SPH overvalued or undervalued?

Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. trades at a P/E of 8.9 (forward 8.9). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SPH?

9 analysts cover SPH with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $17.

What does Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. do?Suburban Propane Partners is the third-largest retail propane marketer in the United States, serving approximately 1.0...

Suburban Propane Partners is the third-largest retail propane marketer in the United States, serving approximately 1.0 million residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural customers through about 750 locations in 42 states, concentrated along the east and west coasts, the Midwest, and Alaska. Beyond its core Propane segment, the partnership operates Fuel Oil and Refined Fuels and Natural Gas and Electricity segments and invests in renewable natural gas, hydrogen, and low-carbon fuel platforms; no single customer accounted for 10% or more of propane or fuel oil revenue in fiscal 2025.

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