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SRSpire Inc.Sell5.7·$79.03-0.09%
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Spire Inc. (SR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $79.03 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 8.5%; Concentration risk — Regulatory: Missouri Public Service Commission (MoPSC).

Spire Inc. is a natural gas distribution holding company with utilities in Missouri (~1.2M customers, largest in the state), Alabama (~0.4M customers), and the Gulf/Mississippi region, regulated by their respective state PUCs. Revenue also comes from gas marketing (1.22 Bcf/day)... Read more

$79.03+8.5% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#1 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-19.80%
IncomeYield4.17%(5y avg 4.16%)Payout65.18%
Stop $75.50Target $85.74(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$98.56+24.7%9 analysts
$85.74our TP
$79.03price
$98.56mean
$105

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $79.03 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 8.5%; Concentration risk — Regulatory: Missouri Public Service Commission (MoPSC). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Spire Inc.

About Spire Inc.

Spire Inc.'s regulated Gas Utility segment served 1,744,537 customers across Missouri, Alabama, and Mississippi in fiscal 2025, with Spire Missouri alone accounting for 1,213,375 customers as the largest natural gas distribution utility in the state. Spire Alabama serves more than 400,000 customers in central and northern Alabama under the Alabama Public Service Commission. Spire employed 3,497 people and operates three reportable business segments: Gas Utility, Gas Marketing, and Midstream.

Spire earns Gas Utility revenue through cost-of-service rates approved by state commissions—the MoPSC in Missouri, the APSC in Alabama, and the MSPSC in Mississippi—with residential customers comprising 66% of Gas Utility operating revenues in fiscal 2025 and commercial and industrial customers contributing 23%. Spire Missouri's Infrastructure System Replacement Surcharge allows expedited recovery of infrastructure investment without formal rate cases, subject to prudence review; the underlying statute is scheduled to expire on August 28, 2029 absent legislative action. Spire Missouri purchased from 39 different natural gas suppliers in fiscal 2025, routing supply through Enable Mississippi River Transmission, Southern Star Central Gas Pipeline, Panhandle Eastern Pipe Line, and the Spire STL Pipeline. The Gas Marketing segment averaged 1.22 Bcf per day in fiscal 2025 and provides wholesale natural gas marketing throughout the central and southern United States, with wholesale activities representing a majority of total Gas Marketing business. The Midstream segment includes the Spire STL Pipeline, Spire MoGas Pipeline, and storage operations in the West and Salt Plains facilities.

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Missouri represents the dominant regulatory and operational concentration for Spire: Spire Missouri served 1,213,375 of the company's 1,744,537 Gas Utility customers in fiscal 2025 under tariffs set by the MoPSC. The Infrastructure System Replacement Surcharge recovery mechanism is tied to a statute scheduled to expire on August 28, 2029 absent legislative renewal, creating a defined regulatory dependency for Missouri infrastructure investment. Rate increases across all three utility subsidiaries are subject to commission approval with no assurance of full cost recovery, and the continuation of Spire Alabama's Rate Stabilization and Equalization mechanism beyond September 30, 2025 is subject to ongoing APSC discretion.

See also: Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

From Spire Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202649d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Regulatory: Missouri Public Service Commission (MoPSC)
Thin upside margin: 8.5%
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.0
P/E (Fwd)14.3
Mkt Cap$4.7B
EV/EBITDA13.7
Profit Mgn13.8%
ROE9.1%
Rev Growth4.5%
Beta0.54
Dividend4.17%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.91bearish
IV72%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHregulatoryMissouri Public Service Commission (MoPSC)
    10-K Item 1: 'Spire Missouri delivers natural gas to customers at rates and in accordance with tariffs authorized by the Missouri Public Service Commission ("MoPSC")'
  • MEDIUMregulatoryAlabama Public Service Commission (APSC)
    10-K Item 1: 'Spire Alabama is the largest natural gas distribution utility in the state of Alabama and is regulated by the Alabama Public Service Commission ("APSC").'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
1.7
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 49d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
28 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $77.83Resistance $87.14

Price Targets

$76
$86
A.Upside+8.5%
A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (49d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $79.03 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 8.5%; Concentration risk — Regulatory: Missouri Public Service Commission (MoPSC). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $75.50. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $85.74 (+8.5% upside). Prior stop was $75.50. Stop-loss: $75.50.

What are the risks of investing in SR?

Concentration risk — Regulatory: Missouri Public Service Commission (MoPSC); Thin upside margin: 8.5%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5.

Is SR overvalued or undervalued?

Spire Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.0 (forward 14.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SR?

18 analysts cover SR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $99.

What does Spire Inc. do?Spire Inc. is a natural gas distribution holding company with utilities in Missouri (~1.2M customers, largest in the...

Spire Inc. is a natural gas distribution holding company with utilities in Missouri (~1.2M customers, largest in the state), Alabama (~0.4M customers), and the Gulf/Mississippi region, regulated by their respective state PUCs. Revenue also comes from gas marketing (1.22 Bcf/day) and midstream pipeline/storage.

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