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Spire Inc. (SR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $86.98 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Regulatory: Missouri Public Service Commission (MoPSC).

Spire Inc. is a natural gas distribution holding company with utilities in Missouri (~1.2M customers, largest in the state), Alabama (~0.4M customers), and the Gulf/Mississippi region, regulated by their respective state PUCs. Revenue also comes from gas marketing (1.22 Bcf/day)... Read more

$86.98+3.7% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#1 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-18.16%
IncomeYield3.83%(5y avg 4.15%)Payout65.18%
Stop $83.08Target $90.24(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$98.78+13.6%9 analysts
$90.24our TP
$86.98price
$98.78mean
$105

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $86.98 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Regulatory: Missouri Public Service Commission (MoPSC). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Spire Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Utilities): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Regulatory: Missouri Public Service Commission (MoPSC)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.5
P/E (Fwd)15.3
Mkt Cap$5.1B
EV/EBITDA14.2
Profit Mgn13.8%
ROE9.1%
Rev Growth4.5%
Beta0.58
Dividend3.83%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C2.38bearish
IV36%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHregulatoryMissouri Public Service Commission (MoPSC)
    10-K Item 1: 'Spire Missouri delivers natural gas to customers at rates and in accordance with tariffs authorized by the Missouri Public Service Commission ("MoPSC")'
  • MEDIUMregulatoryAlabama Public Service Commission (APSC)
    10-K Item 1: 'Spire Alabama is the largest natural gas distribution utility in the state of Alabama and is regulated by the Alabama Public Service Commission ("APSC").'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $84.28Resistance $92.08

Price Targets

$83
$90
A.Upside+3.7%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $86.98 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Regulatory: Missouri Public Service Commission (MoPSC). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $83.08. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $90.24 (+3.7% upside). Prior stop was $83.08. Stop-loss: $83.08.

What are the risks of investing in SR?

Concentration risk — Regulatory: Missouri Public Service Commission (MoPSC); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).

Is SR overvalued or undervalued?

Spire Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.5 (forward 15.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SR?

16 analysts cover SR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $99.

What does Spire Inc. do?Spire Inc. is a natural gas distribution holding company with utilities in Missouri (~1.2M customers, largest in the...

Spire Inc. is a natural gas distribution holding company with utilities in Missouri (~1.2M customers, largest in the state), Alabama (~0.4M customers), and the Gulf/Mississippi region, regulated by their respective state PUCs. Revenue also comes from gas marketing (1.22 Bcf/day) and midstream pipeline/storage.

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