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Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. (SPH) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $19.76 — A.R:R is negative (-3.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (5.0% away).

Suburban Propane Partners, L.P., through its subsidiaries, engages in the retail marketing and distribution of propane, renewable propane, renewable natural gas, fuel oil, and refined fuels in the United States. It operates through four segments: Propane, Fuel Oil and Refined... Read more

$19.76+0.7% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#2 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas
Stop $18.84Target $19.91(resistance)A.R:R -3.6:1
Analyst target$17.00-14.0%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $19.76 — A.R:R is negative (-3.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (5.0% away). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 35%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (5.0% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.8
P/E (Fwd)10.6
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA9.6
Profit Mgn9.3%
ROE22.7%
Rev Growth-0.8%
Beta0.40
Dividend6.63%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.83neutral
IV73%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -3.6=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $18.30Resistance $20.32

Price Targets

$19
$20
A.Upside+0.8%
A.R:R-3.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-26.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SPH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $19.76 — A.R:R is negative (-3.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (5.0% away). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $18.84. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SPH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.91 (+0.7% upside). Prior stop was $18.84. Stop-loss: $18.84.

What are the risks of investing in SPH?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (5.0% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 2.3): -1.5.

Is SPH overvalued or undervalued?

Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. trades at a P/E of 9.8 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 9.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SPH?

9 analysts cover SPH with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $17.

What does Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. do?Suburban Propane Partners, L.P., through its subsidiaries, engages in the retail marketing and distribution of propane,...

Suburban Propane Partners, L.P., through its subsidiaries, engages in the retail marketing and distribution of propane, renewable propane, renewable natural gas, fuel oil, and refined fuels in the United States. It operates through four segments: Propane, Fuel Oil and Refined Fuels, Natural Gas and Electricity, and All Other. The Propane segment is involved in the retail distribution of propane for space heating, water heating, cooking, and clothes drying for use as a motor fuel in internal combustion engines to power over-the-road vehicles, forklifts, and stationary engines, as well as to fire furnaces as a cutting gas to the industrial customers; and for tobacco curing, crop drying, poultry brooding, and weed control in the agricultural markets. It also engages in the wholesale distribution of propane to industrial end users. Its Fuel Oil and Refined Fuels segment engages in the retail distribution of fuel oil, diesel, kerosene, and gasoline to residential and commercial customers for use in primarily as a source of heat in homes and buildings. The Natural Gas and Electricity segment markets natural gas and electricity to residential and commercial customers in the deregulated energy markets. Its All Other segment sells, installs, and services a range of home comfort equipment, including whole-house heating products, air cleaners, humidifiers, and space heaters. The company serves residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural customers. Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. was founded in 1945 and is based in Whippany, New Jersey.

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