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ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $83.24 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0).

ONE Gas is a 100% regulated natural gas distribution utility headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, serving approximately 2.3 million customers across Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas through three divisions. It is the largest natural gas distributor in Oklahoma and Kansas and generates... Read more

$83.24+5.3% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#13 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-5.47%
IncomeYield3.27%(5y avg 3.42%)Payout60.72%
Stop $79.10Target $87.67(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$91.11+9.5%9 analysts
$87.67our TP
$83.24price
$91.11mean
$78
$103

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $83.24 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — ONE Gas, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Utilities): +1.0
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.8
P/E (Fwd)16.6
Mkt Cap$5.2B
EV/EBITDA11.0
Profit Mgn11.8%
ROE8.1%
Rev Growth-11.1%
Beta0.71
Dividend3.27%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.15bullish
IV29%low

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -11.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
2.6
Declining revenue: -11%

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.7
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.3
Uptrend pullback (RSI 32) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.7
Quality Rank
4.5
Value Rank
5.2
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $81.30Resistance $89.46

Price Targets

$79
$88
A.Upside+5.3%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.8% upside)
! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OGS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $83.24 — A.R:R is negative (-0.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $79.10. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OGS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $87.67 (+5.3% upside). Prior stop was $79.10. Stop-loss: $79.10.

What are the risks of investing in OGS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.0); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is OGS overvalued or undervalued?

ONE Gas, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.8 (forward 16.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OGS?

11 analysts cover OGS with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $91.

What does ONE Gas, Inc. do?ONE Gas is a 100% regulated natural gas distribution utility headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, serving approximately...

ONE Gas is a 100% regulated natural gas distribution utility headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, serving approximately 2.3 million customers across Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas through three divisions. It is the largest natural gas distributor in Oklahoma and Kansas and generates revenue from fixed and variable distribution charges under state regulatory rate structures.

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