Value
9.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.1x
- ▸Attractively valued
SPH · Why this verdict
Why Suburban Propane Partners (SPH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.3 |
| ROA | 3.7 |
| Gross margin | 1.5 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 4.8 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 5.9 |
| Moat | 3.6 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 79% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
Growth
1.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.0 |
| EPS growth | 1.6 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -6%
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 7.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 18, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.3 |
| quality rank | 6.1 |
| growth rank | 2.1 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.6 |
| 52w position | 7.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.7 |
| days to cover | 9.2 |
| volatility | 5.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.8 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 3.3 |
- ▸High IV: 69%
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.8 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:51d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-3.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-3.10
Upside
-17.9%
Downside
5.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupOVERSOLD_BOUNCE — Oversold RSI 18, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 9.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-3.1=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -3.10 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Technical at 8.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.0; the weakest are Growth at 1.3, Momentum at 2.7, and Catalyst at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -3.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.