MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU) Stock Analysis
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.16: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
MDU Resources is a pure-play regulated energy delivery company operating electric and natural gas distribution utilities (Montana-Dakota, Cascade, Intermountain) and a natural gas pipeline (WBI Energy) in the northern and western U.S. Revenue comes from regulated retail rates;... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.16: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About MDU Resources Group, Inc.
About MDU Resources Group, Inc.
MDU Resources Group, a pure-play regulated energy delivery company, served approximately 146,550 electric retail customers across North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, and South Dakota in 2025, generating $360.9 million in retail electric revenues. The company's electric rate base stood at $1.8 billion at December 31, 2025, with net electric plant investment of $2.1 billion; three business segments — electric, natural gas distribution, and pipeline — are regulated by the MTPSC, NDPSC, SDPUC, WYPSC, and FERC.
MDU Resources earns revenue through cost-of-service ratemaking set by state public service commissions, with fuel trackers and annual true-ups across all operating states to reduce regulatory lag. The electric segment purchased approximately 60% of net kWh needs via the MISO energy market in 2025, relying on the regional transmission organization for day-ahead and real-time energy. About 40% of electricity delivered from Montana-Dakota's owned generation came from renewable resources in 2025, including the Thunder Spirit wind farm (155,500 kW) and Diamond Willow wind farm (30,000 kW); coal-fired Coyote Station and Big Stone operate under long-term coal supply agreements extending to December 2040 and 2026, respectively. The natural gas distribution segment serves customers through subsidiaries Cascade and Intermountain alongside Montana-Dakota, while the pipeline segment (WBI Energy) benefits from Bakken-associated natural gas production. Montana-Dakota is not dependent on any single customer for electric revenues.
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North Dakota accounted for 67% of MDU Resources' electric retail revenues in 2025, creating a structural dependency on the North Dakota Public Service Commission rate-setting cycle; Montana captured 20%. A disallowance or adverse rate case decision by the NDPSC could weigh on the majority of the company's electric segment earnings. Additionally, the Big Stone Station coal supply agreement with Navajo Transitional Energy Company expires in 2026, requiring renegotiation or alternative supply as a near-term fuel-procurement decision for that facility.
See also: Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
From MDU Resources Group, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-15Recent Developments — MDU Resources Group, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS TD Cowen Maintains Hold on MDU Resources Group, Raises Price Target to $22 — benzinga May 15, 2026 positive
- NEWS MDU Resources Group Affirms FY2026 GAAP EPS Guidance of $0.93-$1.00 vs $0.99 Est — benzinga May 7, 2026 positive
- NEWS MDU Resources Gr Q1 EPS $0.39 Misses $0.42 Estimate, Sales $606.000M Miss $688.260M Estimate — benzinga May 7, 2026 negative
- NEWS JP Morgan Initiates Coverage On MDU Resources Group with Neutral Rating, Announces Price Target of $22 — benzinga Apr 16, 2026
- NEWS Top 2 Utilities Stocks That May Keep You Up At Night In Q2 — benzinga Apr 9, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-06-17T09:02:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicNorth Dakota67%10-K Item 1: 'North Dakota| 67 | %| 65 | %| 66 | %'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -10.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.16: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $20.27. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $21.98 (+3.9% upside). Prior stop was $20.27. Stop-loss: $20.27.
Concentration risk — Geographic: North Dakota (67.0%); Target reached (-4.2% upside); Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).
MDU Resources Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.9 (forward 20.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover MDU with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $23.
What does MDU Resources Group, Inc. do?MDU Resources is a pure-play regulated energy delivery company operating electric and natural gas distribution...
MDU Resources is a pure-play regulated energy delivery company operating electric and natural gas distribution utilities (Montana-Dakota, Cascade, Intermountain) and a natural gas pipeline (WBI Energy) in the northern and western U.S. Revenue comes from regulated retail rates; Montana-Dakota supplies ~170,000 electric customers, with North Dakota representing 67% of electric retail revenues in 2025.