MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the MDU stock price target?

Take-profit $22.02 (-1.1% upside). Prior stop was $21.38.

Q: What are the risks of investing in MDU?

Target reached (-13.5% upside); Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0); Target reached (-13.5% upside); Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).

Q: Is MDU overvalued or undervalued?

MDU Resources Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.6 (forward 20.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about MDU?

11 analysts cover MDU with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $22.

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

MDU Resources is a pure-play regulated energy delivery company with electric generation and distribution (Montana-Dakota Utilities), natural gas distribution (Montana-Dakota, Cascade Natural Gas, Intermountain Gas), and a natural gas pipeline segment (WBI Energy). Revenue is... Read more

$22.35-1.1% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#12 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas

Stop $21.38Target $22.02(resistance)A.R:R -2.1:1

Analyst target$22.14-0.9%7 analysts

$22.02our TP

$22.35price

$22.14mean

$20

$24

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.35: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.50; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Target reached (-13.5% upside)

Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.6

P/E (Fwd)20.7

Mkt Cap$4.5B

EV/EBITDA14.4

Profit Mgn10.2%

ROE7.0%

Rev Growth-0.3%

Beta0.37

Dividend2.51%

Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.50bearish

IV71%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value4.915%0.73

Quality3.915%0.58

Growth6.215%0.93

Momentum5.710%0.57

Sentiment5.710%0.57

Insider Activity5.210%0.52

Peer Rank3.210%0.32

Technical Setup4.25%0.21

Risk Profile5.05%0.25

Catalyst4.75%0.24

Overall (Σ contributions)4.93

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank

1.4

Quality Rank

2.5

Value Rank

3.7

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality

0.0

Roa

1.7

Roe

2.3

Gross Margin

2.5

Current Ratio

3.3

Moat

5.0

Net Margin

5.1

Piotroski F

6.7

Operating Margin

8.1

Earnings quality RED FLAG: -192% FCF/NINo competitive moat

GatesA.R:R -2.1=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 5.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

49 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $20.82Resistance $22.47

Price Targets

$21

$22

A.Upside-1.5%

A.R:R-2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.5% upside)

! Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)

! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-07 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is MDU stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.35: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.50; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $21.38. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MDU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.02 (-1.1% upside). Prior stop was $21.38. Stop-loss: $21.38.

What are the risks of investing in MDU?

Target reached (-13.5% upside); Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).

Is MDU overvalued or undervalued?

MDU Resources Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.6 (forward 20.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MDU?

11 analysts cover MDU with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $22.

What does MDU Resources Group, Inc. do?MDU Resources is a pure-play regulated energy delivery company with electric generation and distribution...