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MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.46: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

MDU Resources is a pure-play regulated energy delivery company operating electric and natural gas distribution utilities (Montana-Dakota, Cascade, Intermountain) and a natural gas pipeline (WBI Energy) in the northern and western U.S. Revenue comes from regulated retail rates;... Read more

$22.46+0.3% A.UpsideScore 3.9/10#14 of 14 Utilities - Regulated Gas
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-9.35%
IncomeYield2.53%(5y avg 2.93%)Payout59.78%sustainable
Stop $21.39Target $22.52(resistance)A.R:R -1.7:1
Analyst target$23.29+3.7%7 analysts
$22.52our TP
$22.46price
$23.29mean
$21
$28

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.46: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — MDU Resources Group, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: North Dakota (67.0%)
Target reached (-9.8% upside)
Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.1
P/E (Fwd)21.1
Mkt Cap$4.6B
EV/EBITDA14.2
Profit Mgn10.5%
ROE6.7%
Rev Growth-10.2%
Beta0.40
Dividend2.53%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicNorth Dakota67%
    10-K Item 1: 'North Dakota| 67 | %| 65 | %| 66 | %'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -10.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
1.6
Declining revenue: -10%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.4
Value Rank
2.6
Quality Rank
2.9

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
3.5
Dividend Safety
4.8
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
0.0
Roa
1.7
Roe
2.2
Gross Margin
2.8
Current Ratio
3.1
Moat
3.1
Piotroski F
4.4
Net Margin
5.2
Operating Margin
7.6
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -229% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Macd
3.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R -1.7=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $21.15Resistance $22.98

Price Targets

$21
$23
A.Upside+0.3%
A.R:R-1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.8% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MDU stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.46: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $21.39. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.

What is the MDU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.52 (+0.3% upside). Prior stop was $21.39. Stop-loss: $21.39.

What are the risks of investing in MDU?

Concentration risk — Geographic: North Dakota (67.0%); Target reached (-9.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).

Is MDU overvalued or undervalued?

MDU Resources Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.1 (forward 21.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MDU?

12 analysts cover MDU with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $23.

What does MDU Resources Group, Inc. do?MDU Resources is a pure-play regulated energy delivery company operating electric and natural gas distribution...

MDU Resources is a pure-play regulated energy delivery company operating electric and natural gas distribution utilities (Montana-Dakota, Cascade, Intermountain) and a natural gas pipeline (WBI Energy) in the northern and western U.S. Revenue comes from regulated retail rates; Montana-Dakota supplies ~170,000 electric customers, with North Dakota representing 67% of electric retail revenues in 2025.

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