Schneider National is a trucking company with weak below-floor business quality, an earnings record of 1 beat and 2 misses in the last 4 quarters, and stock price that has already run well past analyst targets at negative 23% asymmetry — a situation where technical breakout momentum conflicts with deteriorating fundamentals.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Miss Pattern Below Quality Floor→Stable
- Strong Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- Target Exceeded Negative Asymmetry↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Industrials · Trucking
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.61: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality.
Schneider National provides multimodal freight transportation and logistics through Truckload, Intermodal, and Logistics segments across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. The company served approximately 7,400 customers in 2025 with a fleet of 7,800 sleeper cabs, 52,000 trailers,... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.61: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About Schneider National, Inc.
About Schneider National, Inc.
Schneider National's fleet as of December 31, 2025 comprised 7,800 over-the-road sleeper cab tractors, 4,100 day cab tractors, 52,000 trailers, 26,800 containers, and 23,900 chassis, operated across Truckload, Intermodal, and Logistics segments by approximately 19,000 associates—70% of whom are drivers. Owner-operators provided 13% of driver capacity. The company served 7,400 customers in fiscal 2025, including 136 Fortune 500 companies, and the Logistics segment managed approximately $2.2 billion of third-party freight through over 14,000 carrier relationships.
Schneider generates revenue through three reportable segments. Truckload encompasses company-employed drivers and owner-operators in both dedicated long-term contracts and over-the-road network operations across dry van, bulk, temperature-controlled, and flat-bed configurations. Intermodal delivers container-on-flat-car services using Schneider-owned containers and company drayage drivers via agreements with Class I railroads including CSX Transportation, the UP, and the CPKC. Logistics provides asset-light brokerage (including Power Only services using a nationwide company-owned trailer pool), 3PL warehousing, and import/export services. Dedicated operations carry long-term contracts that are nonetheless subject to cancellation. Fuel is the primary variable cost; Schneider made 99% of fuel purchases through negotiated volume discounts in 2025 and uses fuel surcharge programs to partially recover diesel price increases, though surcharges historically have not protected against the full effect of rising prices. The company acquired Cowan, a dedicated and logistics carrier serving retail and food-and-beverage customers, in December 2024.
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Schneider's Intermodal segment faces a structural dependency on a small number of Class I railroad partners—currently CSX Transportation, the UP, and the CPKC. In July 2025, the UP announced a merger agreement to acquire Norfolk Southern Railroad; if approved by shareholders and the Surface Transportation Board, the combined entity would control over 50,000 miles of track, potentially resulting in less favorable contract terms, extended post-merger integration disruptions, and reduced competitive tension in intermodal lane pricing that could weigh on Intermodal segment profitability.
See also: Industrials · Trucking
From Schneider National, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Schneider National, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Schneider National Obtains Certified Cold Carrier Designation From Global Cold Chain Alliance — benzinga Jul 22, 2026 positive
- NEWS Susquehanna Maintains Neutral on Schneider National, Raises Price Target to $39 — benzinga Jul 14, 2026 positive
- NEWS Citigroup Maintains Neutral on Schneider National, Raises Price Target to $39 — benzinga Jul 9, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Maintains Overweight on Schneider National, Raises Price Target to $45 — benzinga Jul 6, 2026 positive
- NEWS Evercore ISI Group Maintains In-Line on Schneider National, Raises Price Target to $34 — benzinga Jul 1, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-26T10:12:22Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomermajor customers10-K Item 1A: 'We derive a significant portion of our revenues from our major customers'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-01Item 5.02LOWShareholders approved amendment to 2017 Omnibus Incentive Plan at Annual Meeting on April 30, 2026, adding 19,900,000 shares of Class B Common Stock to authorized pool. Compensatory arrangement; no officer departure cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.61: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $35.23. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $38.46 (-15.4% upside). Prior stop was $35.23. Stop-loss: $35.23.
Target reached (-15.4% upside); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (3/5): Revenue declining (-33.7% YoY), Margin compression (op margin -149.5%), Material insider selling (7 sells, 0.23% of cap).
Schneider National, Inc. trades at a P/E of 67.2 (forward 22.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover SNDR with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $37.
What does Schneider National, Inc. do?Schneider National provides multimodal freight transportation and logistics through Truckload, Intermodal, and...
Schneider National provides multimodal freight transportation and logistics through Truckload, Intermodal, and Logistics segments across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. The company served approximately 7,400 customers in 2025 with a fleet of 7,800 sleeper cabs, 52,000 trailers, and 26,800 containers, employing 19,000 associates. Owner-operators supplied 13% of driver capacity and the Logistics segment managed $2.2 billion of third-party freight.