Old Dominion Freight Line is a top-tier quality operator in less-than-truckload trucking with a Piotroski score of 6.7, industry-leading ROA and margins, and a solid 3/4 earnings beat streak, but the stock trades well above its analyst price targets at a forward P/E of 37.4x, making the near-term risk/reward unfavorable.
Thesis pillars
- Best In Class Margins Roe↑Improving
- Earnings Beat Execution↓Deteriorating
- Expensive Valuation Forward Pe↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 24, 2026· older than 90 days
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Temporary headwind edge
Industrials · Trucking
Wait for pullback to $170.71. At $177.68 the A.R:R is 1.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $170.71 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 8.1%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
We are one of the largest North American less-than-truckload ("LTL") motor carriers. We provide regional, inter-regional and national LTL services through a single integrated, union-free organization. Our service offerings, which include expedited transportation, are provided... Read more
Wait for pullback to $170.71. At $177.68 the A.R:R is 1.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $170.71 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 8.1%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 91d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Oct 29, 2026Recent Developments — Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) Stock Price Retreats As Q3 Results Fuel Margin Debate - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 29, 2026 negative
- NEWS Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) Reports Strong Q3 2026 Results with Positive Outlook - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS A Look at Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL) After 7.3% Decline -- GF Value $201.24 vs Price $173.32 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS What Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS What Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call - TradingView — TradingView Oct 28, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 29, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:44:36Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-09-22Item 5.02MEDIUMDeparture of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On September 22, 2026, John D. Kasarda, Ph.D. notified Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $170.71. At $177.68 the A.R:R is 1.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $170.71 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 8.1%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $192.13 (+8.1%), stop $160.58 (−10.6%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $192.13 (+8.1% upside). Target $192.13 (+8.1%), stop $160.58 (−10.6%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Stop-loss: $160.58.
Thin upside margin: 8.1%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum.
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. trades at a P/E of 31.6 (forward 26.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
31 analysts rate ODFL, with a consensus score of 3.7/5. 21 analysts publish price targets averaging $213.
What does Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. do?We are one of the largest North American less-than-truckload ("LTL") motor carriers. We provide regional,...
We are one of the largest North American less-than-truckload ("LTL") motor carriers. We provide regional, inter-regional and national LTL services through a single integrated, union-free organization. Our service offerings, which include expedited transportation, are provided through an expansive network of service centers located throughout the continental United States. Through strategic alliances, we also provide LTL services throughout North America.