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Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Trucking

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $210.31 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak overall score: 4.5/10.

We are one of the largest North American less-than-truckload ("LTL") motor carriers. We provide regional, inter-regional and national LTL services through a single integrated, union-free organization. Our service offerings, which include expedited transportation, are provided... Read more

$210.31+8.8% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#6 of 9 Trucking
Stop $195.89Target $229.11(resistance)A.R:R -1.7:1
Analyst target$204.00-3.0%23 analysts
$229.11our TP
$210.31price
$204.00mean
$155
$235

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $210.31 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak overall score: 4.5/10. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.70, news boost analyst 0.60, news boost analyst cluster(3), earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Recent Earnings detected in news
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak overall score: 4.5/10
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)43.3
P/E (Fwd)34.2
Mkt Cap$43.6B
EV/EBITDA25.4
Profit Mgn18.5%
ROE23.3%
Rev Growth-2.9%
Beta
Dividend0.55%
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.87neutral
IV57%elevated
Max Pain$75-64.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -2.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
1.2
Revenue Growth
1.8
Declining revenue: -3%

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
2.8
Analyst Target
3.0
Forward Pe
3.2
Peg Ratio
3.8
Ps
4.8
Forward P/E: 34.2xPEG: 2.88
GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R -1.7=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST EARNINGS 0.70NEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(3)EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $195.33Resistance $233.79

Price Targets

$196
$229
A.Upside+8.9%
A.R:R-1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.8% upside)
! Momentum score 4.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ODFL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $210.31 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak overall score: 4.5/10. Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $195.89. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ODFL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $229.11 (+8.8% upside). Prior stop was $195.89. Stop-loss: $195.89.

What are the risks of investing in ODFL?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.5/10; Expensive valuation.

Is ODFL overvalued or undervalued?

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. trades at a P/E of 43.3 (forward 34.2). TrendMatrix value score: 3.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ODFL?

32 analysts cover ODFL with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $204.

What does Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. do?We are one of the largest North American less-than-truckload ("LTL") motor carriers. We provide regional,...

We are one of the largest North American less-than-truckload ("LTL") motor carriers. We provide regional, inter-regional and national LTL services through a single integrated, union-free organization. Our service offerings, which include expedited transportation, are provided through an expansive network of service centers located throughout the continental United States. Through strategic alliances, we also provide LTL services throughout North America.

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