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Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Trucking

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $204.48, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

We are one of the largest North American less-than-truckload ("LTL") motor carriers. We provide regional, inter-regional and national LTL services through a single integrated, union-free organization. Our service offerings, which include expedited transportation, are provided... Read more

$204.48+12.1% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#7 of 9 Trucking
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield2.03%
IncomeYield0.57%(5y avg 0.45%)Payout23.59%sustainable
Stop $190.15Target $229.11(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$210.43+2.9%23 analysts
$229.11our TP
$204.48price
$210.43mean
$155
$240

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $204.48, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.1 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.90)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Weak overall score: 4.5/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)42.8
P/E (Fwd)33.0
Mkt Cap$42.5B
EV/EBITDA24.7
Profit Mgn18.5%
ROE23.3%
Rev Growth-2.9%
Beta1.17
Dividend0.57%
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.27bearish
IV46%normal
Max Pain$140-31.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -2.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
1.2
Revenue Growth
1.8
Declining revenue: -3%

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
2.9
Forward Pe
3.4
Peg Ratio
3.8
Analyst Target
4.0
Ps
5.0
Forward P/E: 33.0xPEG: 2.90
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $186.89Resistance $233.79

Price Targets

$190
$229
A.Upside+12.0%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.4% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ODFL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $204.48, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $229.11 (+12.0%), stop $190.15 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ODFL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $229.11 (+12.1% upside). Target $229.11 (+12.0%), stop $190.15 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Stop-loss: $190.15.

What are the risks of investing in ODFL?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Weak overall score: 4.5/10.

Is ODFL overvalued or undervalued?

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. trades at a P/E of 42.8 (forward 33.0). TrendMatrix value score: 3.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ODFL?

32 analysts cover ODFL with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $210.

What does Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. do?We are one of the largest North American less-than-truckload ("LTL") motor carriers. We provide regional,...

We are one of the largest North American less-than-truckload ("LTL") motor carriers. We provide regional, inter-regional and national LTL services through a single integrated, union-free organization. Our service offerings, which include expedited transportation, are provided through an expansive network of service centers located throughout the continental United States. Through strategic alliances, we also provide LTL services throughout North America.

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