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Werner Enterprises, Inc. (WERN) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Trucking

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.77: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 5.40; Below-average business quality.

Werner Enterprises is one of the largest U.S. truckload carriers with a 7,100-truck fleet across Dedicated (4,850) and One-Way Truckload (2,250) fleets, plus a non-asset Werner Logistics segment; TTS generated 69% of 2025 revenues. Dollar General is the largest customer at 11%... Read more

$37.77+0.4% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#5 of 9 Trucking
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-0.60%
IncomeYield1.48%(5y avg 1.41%)Payout136.59%at-risk
Stop $35.13Target $37.91(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$37.29-1.3%14 analysts
$37.91our TP
$37.77price
$37.29mean
$30
$47

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.77: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 5.40; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Werner Enterprises, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-14.1% upside)
Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 4.7%), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.49% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)19.5
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA8.8
Profit Mgn-0.3%
ROE-1.2%
Rev Growth13.6%
Beta1.24
Dividend1.48%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C5.40bearish
IV52%elevated
Max Pain$15-60.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerDollar General11%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customer, Dollar General, accounted for 11% of our total revenues in 2025.'
  • MEDIUMCustomerlargest 5 customers38%
    10-K Item 1: 'our largest 5, 10, 25 and 50 customers comprised 38%, 50%, 68% and 79% of our revenues, respectively.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-18Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation Committee approved 2026 base salaries and equity grants (RS and PS awards) for NEOs including CEO Derek Leathers ($980K base, 66,572 RS, 74,137 PS). Routine annual compensatory arrangement; no departures.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Unprofitable operations — net margin -0.3%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Operating Margin
0.3
Roa
1.0
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
5.4
Piotroski F
6.7
Cash-burning: FCF -0% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $33.01Resistance $38.68

Price Targets

$35
$38
A.Upside+0.4%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.1% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 4.7%), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.49% of cap)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is WERN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.77: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 5.40; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $35.13. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the WERN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.91 (+0.4% upside). Prior stop was $35.13. Stop-loss: $35.13.

What are the risks of investing in WERN?

Target reached (-14.1% upside); Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 4.7%), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.49% of cap).

Is WERN overvalued or undervalued?

Werner Enterprises, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 19.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about WERN?

20 analysts cover WERN with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $37.

What does Werner Enterprises, Inc. do?Werner Enterprises is one of the largest U.S. truckload carriers with a 7,100-truck fleet across Dedicated (4,850) and...

Werner Enterprises is one of the largest U.S. truckload carriers with a 7,100-truck fleet across Dedicated (4,850) and One-Way Truckload (2,250) fleets, plus a non-asset Werner Logistics segment; TTS generated 69% of 2025 revenues. Dollar General is the largest customer at 11% of revenues; the top 5 customers represent 38% of revenues, concentrated in retail and consumer products (66% of top-50 customer mix).

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