Schneider National is a trucking company with weak below-floor business quality, an earnings record of 1 beat and 2 misses in the last 4 quarters, and stock price that has already run well past analyst targets at negative 23% asymmetry — a situation where technical breakout momentum conflicts with deteriorating fundamentals.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Miss Pattern Below Quality Floor↑Improving
- Strong Free Cash Flow Conversion↑Improving
- Target Exceeded Negative Asymmetry→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026· older than 90 days
Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Trucking
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $29.81 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2).
Schneider National provides multimodal freight transportation and logistics through Truckload, Intermodal, and Logistics segments across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. The company served approximately 7,400 customers in 2025 with a fleet of 7,800 sleeper cabs, 52,000 trailers,... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $29.81 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Schneider National, Inc.
About Schneider National, Inc.
Schneider National's fleet as of December 31, 2025 comprised 7,800 over-the-road sleeper cab tractors, 4,100 day cab tractors, 52,000 trailers, 26,800 containers, and 23,900 chassis, operated across Truckload, Intermodal, and Logistics segments by approximately 19,000 associates—70% of whom are drivers. Owner-operators provided 13% of driver capacity. The company served 7,400 customers in fiscal 2025, including 136 Fortune 500 companies, and the Logistics segment managed approximately $2.2 billion of third-party freight through over 14,000 carrier relationships.
Schneider generates revenue through three reportable segments. Truckload encompasses company-employed drivers and owner-operators in both dedicated long-term contracts and over-the-road network operations across dry van, bulk, temperature-controlled, and flat-bed configurations. Intermodal delivers container-on-flat-car services using Schneider-owned containers and company drayage drivers via agreements with Class I railroads including CSX Transportation, the UP, and the CPKC. Logistics provides asset-light brokerage (including Power Only services using a nationwide company-owned trailer pool), 3PL warehousing, and import/export services. Dedicated operations carry long-term contracts that are nonetheless subject to cancellation. Fuel is the primary variable cost; Schneider made 99% of fuel purchases through negotiated volume discounts in 2025 and uses fuel surcharge programs to partially recover diesel price increases, though surcharges historically have not protected against the full effect of rising prices. The company acquired Cowan, a dedicated and logistics carrier serving retail and food-and-beverage customers, in December 2024.
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Schneider's Intermodal segment faces a structural dependency on a small number of Class I railroad partners—currently CSX Transportation, the UP, and the CPKC. In July 2025, the UP announced a merger agreement to acquire Norfolk Southern Railroad; if approved by shareholders and the Surface Transportation Board, the combined entity would control over 50,000 miles of track, potentially resulting in less favorable contract terms, extended post-merger integration disruptions, and reduced competitive tension in intermodal lane pricing that could weigh on Intermodal segment profitability.
See also: Industrials · Trucking
From Schneider National, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 3, 2026Recent Developments — Schneider National, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Evercore ISI Group Maintains Schneider National at In-Line, Lowers Price Target — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 negative
- NEWS Evercore ISI Group Maintains In-Line on Schneider National, Lowers Price Target to $30 — benzinga Nov 3, 2026 negative
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Equal-Weight on Schneider National, Lowers Price Target to $31 — benzinga Oct 30, 2026 negative
- NEWS UBS Adjusts Price Target on Schneider National, Inc. — fiscal.ai Oct 30, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Schneider National, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results — fiscal.ai Oct 29, 2026
Latest item Nov 3, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:49:11Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomermajor customers10-K Item 1A: 'We derive a significant portion of our revenues from our major customers'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-01Item 5.02LOWShareholders approved amendment to 2017 Omnibus Incentive Plan at Annual Meeting on April 30, 2026, adding 19,900,000 shares of Class B Common Stock to authorized pool. Compensatory arrangement; no officer departure cited.SEC filing →
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $29.81 — A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $27.77. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $30.57 (+2.6% upside). Prior stop was $27.77. Stop-loss: $27.77.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Schneider National, Inc. trades at a P/E of 37.7 (forward 18.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts rate SNDR, with a consensus score of 3.7/5. 14 analysts publish price targets averaging $35.
What does Schneider National, Inc. do?Schneider National provides multimodal freight transportation and logistics through Truckload, Intermodal, and...
Schneider National provides multimodal freight transportation and logistics through Truckload, Intermodal, and Logistics segments across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. The company served approximately 7,400 customers in 2025 with a fleet of 7,800 sleeper cabs, 52,000 trailers, and 26,800 containers, employing 19,000 associates. Owner-operators supplied 13% of driver capacity and the Logistics segment managed $2.2 billion of third-party freight.