Value
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.8 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.13
SNDR · Why this verdict
Why Schneider National (SNDR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of 9.8%, and the business quality score of 3.7 falls just below the minimum quality threshold of 4.0, reflecting thin margins typical of trucking. Catalyst breakdown | The company delivers at least 2 earnings beats in the next 4 quarters as freight volumes recover, pushing the quality score above 4.0. | →Stable |
| CounterThe Q1 2026 earnings beat of 33% suggests the negative trend may be reversing as trucking rates begin to improve from cyclical lows. | ||
Schneider converts 187% of net income to free cash flow — meaning the business generates substantially more real cash than its accounting earnings suggest, providing a financial buffer during down cycles. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income over the next 12 months, confirming cash generation continues even if reported earnings are weak. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh FCF conversion in trucking often reflects low capital spending during a downturn; if freight volumes recover and the company must invest in fleet expansion, FCF conversion may normalize sharply downward. | ||
Schneider National's stock has exceeded the analyst consensus fair value estimate by 23%, meaning the current price implies a risk-reward of -1.53x — investors buying here accept roughly $1.53 of downside risk for every $1 of potential upside. Warnings | Analyst price targets are revised above $46 over 12 months, restoring at least 20% upside from the current $37.69, driven by a freight market recovery. | →Stable |
| CounterA golden cross breakout with RSI at 69 and bullish MACD can sustain elevated prices for extended periods when market-wide freight sentiment is improving. | ||
Despite weak fundamentals, the stock is above all major moving averages in a golden cross pattern with RSI at 69 and bullish MACD, suggesting near-term price momentum is positive even if the fundamental case is challenged. Momentum breakdown | The stock maintains its position above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 more months before the freight cycle fundamentally improves. | →Stable |
| CounterOn-balance volume is falling despite the price breakout, indicating that volume is not confirming the price strength and the breakout may be driven by thin trading rather than genuine accumulation. | ||
The company has missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of 9.8%, and the business quality score of 3.7 falls just below the minimum quality threshold of 4.0, reflecting thin margins typical of trucking.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The company delivers at least 2 earnings beats in the next 4 quarters as freight volumes recover, pushing the quality score above 4.0.
CounterThe Q1 2026 earnings beat of 33% suggests the negative trend may be reversing as trucking rates begin to improve from cyclical lows.
Schneider converts 187% of net income to free cash flow — meaning the business generates substantially more real cash than its accounting earnings suggest, providing a financial buffer during down cycles.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income over the next 12 months, confirming cash generation continues even if reported earnings are weak.
CounterHigh FCF conversion in trucking often reflects low capital spending during a downturn; if freight volumes recover and the company must invest in fleet expansion, FCF conversion may normalize sharply downward.
Schneider National's stock has exceeded the analyst consensus fair value estimate by 23%, meaning the current price implies a risk-reward of -1.53x — investors buying here accept roughly $1.53 of downside risk for every $1 of potential upside.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised above $46 over 12 months, restoring at least 20% upside from the current $37.69, driven by a freight market recovery.
CounterA golden cross breakout with RSI at 69 and bullish MACD can sustain elevated prices for extended periods when market-wide freight sentiment is improving.
Despite weak fundamentals, the stock is above all major moving averages in a golden cross pattern with RSI at 69 and bullish MACD, suggesting near-term price momentum is positive even if the fundamental case is challenged.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock maintains its position above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 more months before the freight cycle fundamentally improves.
CounterOn-balance volume is falling despite the price breakout, indicating that volume is not confirming the price strength and the breakout may be driven by thin trading rather than genuine accumulation.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Schneider National is a trucking company with weak below-floor business quality, an earnings record of 1 beat and 2 misses in the last 4 quarters, and stock price that has already run well past analyst targets at negative 23% asymmetry — a situation where technical breakout momentum conflicts with deteriorating fundamentals.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.1 |
| ROA | 1.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.0 |
| Net margin | 0.9 |
| Current ratio | 6.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 187% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -0%
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 35) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 4.5 |
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,577,234 (0.025% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.1 |
| quality rank | 5.4 |
| growth rank | 4.2 |
Technical
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.1 |
| support resistance | 7.9 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.1 |
| days to cover | 3.4 |
| volatility | 4.1 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.0 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 5.12
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.36
Upside
-15.8%
Downside
6.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Technical at 7.8 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.8, Growth at 6.2, and Sentiment at 6.2; the weakest are Momentum at 3.1, Catalyst at 3.4, and Peer rank at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.36 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Target Exceeded Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $46, restoring at least 20% upside from the current price of $37.69.
- P2Earnings Miss Pattern Below Quality Floor
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming the miss pattern is structural rather than cyclical.
- P3Strong Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 80% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the cash generation advantage is reversing.
- P4Golden Cross Breakout Overbought
Trip ifPrice drops below $32, more than 15% below the current $37.69, confirming the golden cross breakout has reversed into a bearish trend.