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Saia, Inc. (SAIA) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Industrials · Trucking

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $465.78: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.24; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

We provide national less-than-truckload (LTL) services through a single integrated organization. While approximately 97% of our revenue is derived from transporting LTL shipments, we also offer customers a wide range of other value-added services, including brokered truckload... Read more

$465.78-1.7% A.UpsideScore 3.9/10#8 of 9 Trucking
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield0.29%
Stop $433.82Target $458.64(resistance)A.R:R -1.1:1
Analyst target$444.55-4.6%20 analysts
$458.64our TP
$465.78price
$444.55mean
$265
$550

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $465.78: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.24; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Saia, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-14.2% upside)
Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-6.7% YoY), High leverage (D/E 2.6)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)47.2
P/E (Fwd)31.6
Mkt Cap$11.9B
EV/EBITDA20.7
Profit Mgn7.8%
ROE10.2%
Rev Growth2.4%
Beta2.12
DividendNone
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.24bearish
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$360-22.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.0
Revenue Growth
3.1

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
2.6
Analyst Target
3.0
Forward Pe
3.7
Peg Ratio
4.1
Ps
7.8
Forward P/E: 31.6xPEG: 2.45

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.7
Fcf Quality
1.1
Operating Margin
3.3
Roe
3.4
Moat
3.8
Net Margin
3.9
Roa
4.0
Current Ratio
5.6
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality RED FLAG: 14% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
3.4
Growth Rank
5.6
Quality Rank
6.7
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -1.1=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $403.34Resistance $468.00

Price Targets

$434
$459
A.Upside-1.5%
A.R:R-1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.2% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-6.7% YoY), High leverage (D/E 2.6)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-24 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SAIA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $465.78: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.9/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.24; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $433.82. Score 3.9/10, high confidence.

What is the SAIA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $458.64 (-1.7% upside). Prior stop was $433.82. Stop-loss: $433.82.

What are the risks of investing in SAIA?

Target reached (-14.2% upside); Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-6.7% YoY), High leverage (D/E 2.6).

Is SAIA overvalued or undervalued?

Saia, Inc. trades at a P/E of 47.2 (forward 31.6). TrendMatrix value score: 3.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SAIA?

26 analysts cover SAIA with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $445.

What does Saia, Inc. do?We provide national less-than-truckload (LTL) services through a single integrated organization. While approximately...

We provide national less-than-truckload (LTL) services through a single integrated organization. While approximately 97% of our revenue is derived from transporting LTL shipments, we also offer customers a wide range of other value-added services, including brokered truckload and expedited transportation and other logistics services across North America.

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