Saia's solid earnings beat streak and above-average technical momentum cannot overcome a negative analyst upside and free cash flow conversion rate of only 14%, making the stock a hold at best until valuation normalizes to a more attractive entry point.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Consistency↓Deteriorating
- Fcf Quality Red Flag→Stable
- Rich Valuation Negative Upside↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 24, 2026· older than 90 days
Saia, Inc. (SAIA) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Trucking
Sell if holding. At $361.72, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9).
We provide national less-than-truckload (LTL) services through a single integrated organization. While approximately 97% of our revenue is derived from transporting LTL shipments, we also offer customers a wide range of other value-added services, including brokered truckload... Read more
Sell if holding. At $361.72, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 97d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated Oct 29, 2026Recent Developments — Saia, Inc.
Material events (past 30 days)
- 8K Oct 29, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: | Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers Appointment of Todd C.
Latest news
- NEWS SAIA 261120 460.00C (SAIA261120C460000) Stock Options Chain | Quotes & News - Moomoo — Moomoo Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Saia (SAIA) Q3 earnings: what to expect - TradingView — TradingView Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Raymond James cuts target for Saia stock to USD 410 - ad-hoc-news.de — ad-hoc-news.de Oct 20, 2026 negative
- NEWS Raymond James cuts target for Saia stock to USD 410 - AD HOC NEWS — AD HOC NEWS Oct 20, 2026 negative
- NEWS Saia stock falls after Q2 2026 results but stays above 52-week low - AD HOC NEWS — AD HOC NEWS Sep 2, 2026 negative
Latest item Oct 29, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:54:13Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-10-29Item 5.02MEDIUM| Departure of Directors or Principal Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Principal Officers Appointment of Todd C.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $361.72, A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Prior stop was $336.40. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $373.20 (+3.2% upside). Prior stop was $336.40. Stop-loss: $336.40.
Thin upside margin: 3.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Saia, Inc. trades at a P/E of 34.3 (forward 25.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts rate SAIA, with a consensus score of 4.0/5. 21 analysts publish price targets averaging $415.
What does Saia, Inc. do?We provide national less-than-truckload (LTL) services through a single integrated organization. While approximately...
We provide national less-than-truckload (LTL) services through a single integrated organization. While approximately 97% of our revenue is derived from transporting LTL shipments, we also offer customers a wide range of other value-added services, including brokered truckload and expedited transportation and other logistics services across North America.