Saia's solid earnings beat streak and above-average technical momentum cannot overcome a negative analyst upside and free cash flow conversion rate of only 14%, making the stock a hold at best until valuation normalizes to a more attractive entry point.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Consistency→Stable
- Fcf Quality Red Flag→Stable
- Rich Valuation Negative Upside→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Saia, Inc. (SAIA) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Industrials · Trucking
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $417.89: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
We provide national less-than-truckload (LTL) services through a single integrated organization. While approximately 97% of our revenue is derived from transporting LTL shipments, we also offer customers a wide range of other value-added services, including brokered truckload... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $417.89: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 24d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-07Recent Developments — Saia, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Maintains Underweight on Saia, Raises Price Target to $295 — benzinga Jul 6, 2026 negative
- NEWS Evercore ISI Group Upgrades Saia to Outperform, Raises Price Target to $493 — benzinga Jul 1, 2026 positive
- NEWS FedEx Freight's Pricing Power Is Paying Off — benzinga Jun 26, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Goldman Sachs Maintains Buy on Saia, Raises Price Target to $494 — benzinga Jun 23, 2026 positive
- NEWS Citigroup Downgrades Saia to Neutral, Raises Price Target to $524 — benzinga Jun 15, 2026 negative
Generated 2026-07-07T11:31:44Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $417.89: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $397.83. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $484.82 (+16.0% upside). Prior stop was $397.83. Stop-loss: $397.83.
Target reached (-1.4% upside); Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -104.2%), Negative free cash flow.
Saia, Inc. trades at a P/E of 43.7 (forward 28.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
26 analysts cover SAIA with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $458.
What does Saia, Inc. do?We provide national less-than-truckload (LTL) services through a single integrated organization. While approximately...
We provide national less-than-truckload (LTL) services through a single integrated organization. While approximately 97% of our revenue is derived from transporting LTL shipments, we also offer customers a wide range of other value-added services, including brokered truckload and expedited transportation and other logistics services across North America.