Royal Gold has delivered 143% year-over-year earnings growth and earns elite Rule of 40 scores of 111, with analysts seeing 32% upside to their consensus target, but 85% of revenues come from operations outside the United States and the last three quarters produced earnings misses, creating a gap between financial quality and near-term execution.
Thesis pillars
- Analyst Upside Target→Stable
- Gold Commodity Concentration→Stable
- Exceptional Revenue Earnings Growth→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Basic Materials · Gold
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $204.90 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (78.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: outside United States (85.0%).
Royal Gold acquires and manages precious metal streams and royalties across 18 production-stage stream properties and 63 production-stage royalty interests globally, without conducting mining operations. The company generated record revenue of $1.0 billion in 2025, up 43%... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $204.90 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (78.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: outside United States (85.0%). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 32d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
About Royal Gold, Inc.
About Royal Gold, Inc.
Royal Gold generated record revenue of $1.0 billion for the year ended December 31, 2025 — a 43% increase from $719.4 million in 2024 — through stream and royalty interests across 18 production-stage stream properties and 63 production-stage royalty properties spanning North America, South and Central America, EMEA, and Australia Pacific. Stream interests supplied 67% of total revenue; royalty interests the remaining 33%. The company employed 39 people operating from offices in Denver, Lucerne, Vancouver, and Toronto.
Royal Gold's model requires no capital contributions to mine operators, allowing the company to earn revenue by purchasing metals under stream agreements at fixed prices or a stated percentage of market price and reselling in the open market, while royalty interests provide a defined percentage of operator gross revenues. Approximately 53% of 2025 revenue came from five properties — Mount Milligan at 22%, Pueblo Viejo at 13%, Andacollo at 8%, Cortez at 7%, and Kansanshi at 3% — making operator performance at these sites the primary revenue factor. Revenue was approximately 78% gold, 12% silver, 7% copper, and 3% other minerals in 2025. The stream and royalty sector has grown in number and relative size in recent years, with competitors that may have different costs of capital or tax treatment, particularly those organized in countries with more favorable regulatory regimes.
Show full overview
Royal Gold sourced approximately 85% of 2025 revenue from properties outside the United States, with principal production-stage stream interests in Canada, the Dominican Republic, Chile, and Zambia. The 2025 acquisition of Sandstorm Gold Ltd. and Horizon Copper Corp for $4.148 billion, combined with a $1.0 billion advance payment for a gold stream on the Kansanshi copper-gold mine in Zambia, deepened exposure to sovereign jurisdictions subject to expropriation, currency controls, and variable taxation that the 10-K identifies as factors capable of limiting or disrupting development at underlying properties.
See also: Basic Materials · Gold
From Royal Gold, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Royal Gold, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS RBC Capital Maintains Royal Gold(RGLD.US) With Buy Rating, Maintains Target Price $375 - 富途牛牛 — 富途牛牛 positive
- NEWS RBC Capital Maintains Royal Gold(RGLD.US) With Buy Rating, Maintains Target Price $375 - Moomoo — Moomoo positive
- NEWS BCS Wealth Management Buys 19,478 Shares of Royal Gold, Inc. $RGLD - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS UBS initiates Royal Gold stock with buy rating on growth outlook By Investing.com - Investing.com South Africa — Investing.com South Africa positive
- NEWS UBS initiates Royal Gold stock with buy rating on growth outlook By Investing.com - Investing.com Australia — Investing.com Australia positive
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCommoditygold78%10-K Item 1: 'we derived approximately 90% of our revenue from precious metals (including 78% from gold and 12% from silver)'
- HIGHGeographicoutside United States85%10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 85% of our revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025 came from properties outside of the United States'
- HIGHCustomerfive properties53%10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 53% of our revenue...came from five properties: Mount Milligan (22%), Pueblo Viejo (13%), Cortez (7%), Andacollo (8%) and Kansanshi (3%)'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $204.90 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (78.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: outside United States (85.0%). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $189.84. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $281.66 (+38.0% upside). Prior stop was $189.84. Stop-loss: $189.84.
Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (78.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: outside United States (85.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 8.0): -1.5.
Royal Gold, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.7 (forward 15.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover RGLD with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $324.
What does Royal Gold, Inc. do?Royal Gold acquires and manages precious metal streams and royalties across 18 production-stage stream properties and...
Royal Gold acquires and manages precious metal streams and royalties across 18 production-stage stream properties and 63 production-stage royalty interests globally, without conducting mining operations. The company generated record revenue of $1.0 billion in 2025, up 43% year-over-year; stream interests contributed 67% and royalty interests 33% of total revenue.