Skip to main content
OGCOceanaGold CorporationBuy Wait7.3·$28.20-2.49%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

OceanaGold combines best-in-class profitability and a very low PEG ratio with a recent earnings-miss streak and a news-driven downgrade, leaving the setup caught between a strong quality story and near-term execution risk.

Thesis pillars

  • News Driven Verdict DowngradeImproving
  • Growth Adjusted Cheap ValuationStable
  • Revenue Growth SurgeStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

OceanaGold Corporation (OGC) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Wait for pullback to $25.43. BUY gates pass at $28.20, but consecutive earnings misses (2) argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $25.43 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

OceanaGold Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and operation of gold and gold/copper mines in the United States, the Philippines, and New Zealand. It explores for gold, copper, and silver deposits. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in... Read more

$28.20+13.5% A.UpsideScore 7.3/10#3 of 40 Gold
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield10.88%
IncomeYield1.04%(5y avg 1.07%)Payout6.37%sustainable
Entry $25.43(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $23.26Target $28.86(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Wait for pullback to $25.43. BUY gates pass at $28.20, but consecutive earnings misses (2) argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $25.43 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Value play: 49% MoS with quality 8.9. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 7.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 4, 202683d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong overall score: 7.3/10
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.7
P/E (Fwd)
Mkt Cap$6.4B
EV/EBITDA4.1
Profit Mgn35.1%
ROE37.3%
Rev Growth49.7%
Beta1.51
Dividend1.04%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.03bullish
IV76%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·3 ceiling hits

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.8
Earnings concerns: 1B/2M

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.7
Support Resistance
1.7
Gap
6.0
52w Position
6.1
GatesA.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
75 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $21.90Resistance $29.45

Price Targets

$23
$25
$29
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.7%
Max %1.5%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-04 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OGC stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $25.43. BUY gates pass at $28.20, but consecutive earnings misses (2) argues for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $25.43 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Value play: 49% MoS with quality 8.9. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $28.86 (+2.3%), stop $23.26 (−21.2%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 7.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OGC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.86 (+13.5% upside). Target $28.86 (+2.3%), stop $23.26 (−21.2%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $23.26.

What are the risks of investing in OGC?

Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is OGC overvalued or undervalued?

OceanaGold Corporation trades at a P/E of 7.7 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 9.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about OGC?

15 analysts cover OGC with a consensus score of 4.0/5.

What does OceanaGold Corporation do?OceanaGold Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and operation of gold and gold/copper mines in the...

OceanaGold Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and operation of gold and gold/copper mines in the United States, the Philippines, and New Zealand. It explores for gold, copper, and silver deposits. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Related stocks: GFI (Gold Fields Limited) · IAG (Iamgold Corporation) · AU (AngloGold Ashanti PLC) · FSM (Fortuna Mining Corp.) · ARIS (Aris Mining Corporation)
Home Stocks OGC

Latest news

Latest News

富途牛牛16d ago
GuruFocus23d ago
GuruFocus23d ago
Stock Titan23d ago
Marketscreener.com23d ago
The Globe and Mail23d ago
Investing News Network23d ago
Investing.com South Africa23d ago
Investing.com23d ago
PR Newswire23d ago
TradingView23d ago
Yahoo! Finance Canada23d ago
GuruFocus37d ago
Kalkine.ca9d ago
Seeking Alpha9d agoAnalyst
Kalkine Media17d ago
TradingKey17d ago
Wealth Awesome17d ago
TradingKey17d ago
TradingKey17d ago
Loading more...