Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) Stock Analysis
Basic Materials · Gold
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $233.50 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (78.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: properties outside the United States (85.0%).
Royal Gold acquires and manages precious metal streams (67% of revenue) and royalties (33%) across 18 production-stage stream interests and 63+ production-stage royalty interests globally, generating a record $1.0B revenue in 2025. Revenue comes from selling metals purchased... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $233.50 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (78.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: properties outside the United States (85.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCommoditygold78%10-K Item 1: 'we derived approximately 90% of our revenue from precious metals (including 78% from gold and 12% from silver), 7% from copper, and 3% from other minerals'
- HIGHGeographicproperties outside the United States85%10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 85% of our revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025 came from properties outside of the United States'
- HIGHCustomerfive properties (Mount Milligan, Pueblo Viejo, Cortez, Andacollo, Kansanshi)53%10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 53% of our revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025, came from five properties: Mount Milligan (22%), Pueblo Viejo (13%), Cortez (7%), Andacollo (8%) and Kansanshi (3%)'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $233.50 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (78.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: properties outside the United States (85.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $222.38. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $293.99 (+26.1% upside). Prior stop was $222.38. Stop-loss: $222.38.
Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (78.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: properties outside the United States (85.0%); Earnings in 6 days (event risk).
Royal Gold, Inc. trades at a P/E of 34.5 (forward 16.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
19 analysts cover RGLD with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $338.
What does Royal Gold, Inc. do?Royal Gold acquires and manages precious metal streams (67% of revenue) and royalties (33%) across 18 production-stage...
Royal Gold acquires and manages precious metal streams (67% of revenue) and royalties (33%) across 18 production-stage stream interests and 63+ production-stage royalty interests globally, generating a record $1.0B revenue in 2025. Revenue comes from selling metals purchased under stream agreements and collecting royalty percentages; approximately 90% is from precious metals (78% gold, 12% silver) with 7% from copper. Five properties — Mount Milligan (22%), Pueblo Viejo (13%), Andacollo (8%), Cortez (7%), and Kansanshi (3%) — represent ~53% of 2025 revenues.