Value
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.5 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
RGLD · Why this verdict
Why Royal Gold (RGLD) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Royal Gold has delivered 143% year-over-year earnings growth and earns elite Rule of 40 scores of 111, with analysts seeing 32% upside to their consensus target, but 85% of revenues come from operations outside the United States and the last three quarters produced earnings misses, creating a gap between financial quality and near-term execution.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Analysts maintain a consensus price target approximately 32% above the current price of $215.52, driven by the company's high-quality streaming model with 49% margins and a strong competitive position score of 6.4. Targets | The stock reaches at least $260 within 18 months, closing more than half the gap to the analyst consensus target of $284. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterA target reached from below with the stock still 32% below consensus suggests analyst targets may be lagging downward revisions, and three consecutive quarterly misses typically precede downward estimate revisions. | ||
With 78% of revenues tied to gold and 85% of operations outside the United States, the business is deeply leveraged to gold price direction and international geopolitical conditions, which creates both upside optionality and meaningful tail risk. Bear case | Gold price remains above $2,000 per ounce, supporting royalty stream revenues and enabling the company to meet or exceed quarterly earnings estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSingle-commodity dependence at 78% combined with international exposure at 85% means a 20% gold price correction could produce a disproportionate earnings decline given the fixed-cost structure of a streaming company. | ||
Royal Gold generated 143% year-over-year earnings growth and has a Rule of 40 score of 111, placing it in elite territory among precious metals streaming companies, with strong margins of 49% supporting the growth narrative. Quality breakdown | Revenue growth remains above 15% and earnings per share grows by more than 10% year-over-year in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent three quarters all produced earnings misses, with one quarter missing by -27.4%, indicating that strong historical growth has not recently translated into meeting analyst forecasts. | ||
Three of the last four quarters produced earnings misses, including a -27.4% miss in February 2026, which represents a pattern of execution risk despite the underlying financial quality of the streaming model. Earnings | The company returns to a beat-or-inline result in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, with no quarter missing by more than 5%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe earnings miss streak may reflect deliberate analyst conservatism in forecast revisions rather than operational deterioration, and the one beat in August 2025 was a positive 7.9% surprise. | ||
Analysts maintain a consensus price target approximately 32% above the current price of $215.52, driven by the company's high-quality streaming model with 49% margins and a strong competitive position score of 6.4.
Tripped→StableTargets
- Expectation
- The stock reaches at least $260 within 18 months, closing more than half the gap to the analyst consensus target of $284.
CounterA target reached from below with the stock still 32% below consensus suggests analyst targets may be lagging downward revisions, and three consecutive quarterly misses typically precede downward estimate revisions.
With 78% of revenues tied to gold and 85% of operations outside the United States, the business is deeply leveraged to gold price direction and international geopolitical conditions, which creates both upside optionality and meaningful tail risk.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Gold price remains above $2,000 per ounce, supporting royalty stream revenues and enabling the company to meet or exceed quarterly earnings estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterSingle-commodity dependence at 78% combined with international exposure at 85% means a 20% gold price correction could produce a disproportionate earnings decline given the fixed-cost structure of a streaming company.
Royal Gold generated 143% year-over-year earnings growth and has a Rule of 40 score of 111, placing it in elite territory among precious metals streaming companies, with strong margins of 49% supporting the growth narrative.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth remains above 15% and earnings per share grows by more than 10% year-over-year in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe most recent three quarters all produced earnings misses, with one quarter missing by -27.4%, indicating that strong historical growth has not recently translated into meeting analyst forecasts.
Three of the last four quarters produced earnings misses, including a -27.4% miss in February 2026, which represents a pattern of execution risk despite the underlying financial quality of the streaming model.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The company returns to a beat-or-inline result in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, with no quarter missing by more than 5%.
CounterThe earnings miss streak may reflect deliberate analyst conservatism in forecast revisions rather than operational deterioration, and the one beat in August 2025 was a positive 7.9% surprise.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 6.2 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.8 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 8.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 48%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -26% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
9.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 9.7 |
- ▸Strong growth: 116% YoY
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 7.2 |
Insider
4.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $239,325 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.4 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 8.5 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.5 |
| support resistance | 1.5 |
| 52w position | 7.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 7.0 |
| volatility | 4.7 |
| put call | 7.0 |
| implied vol | 6.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.8 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.3 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.18, quality 7.8/10, growth 9.8/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:65d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.05
Upside
+0.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict: quality 7.8 and growth 9.8 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 0.05 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.8, Quality at 7.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.3, Technical at 3.7, and Insider at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.05 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Revenue Earnings Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 5% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters or gross margin drops below 40%.
- P2Analyst Upside TargetTripped
Trip ifStock fails to reach above $250 within 18 months from today's price of $215.52.
- P3Gold Commodity Concentration
Trip ifGold price drops below $1,800 per ounce and stays below that level for more than 60 days.
- P4Earnings Miss Streak Risk
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below -10% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.