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Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $17.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Aris Mining Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold properties in Canada, Colombia, and Guyana. It also explores for silver and copper deposits. Aris Mining Corporation was formerly known as GCM... Read more

$17.51+16.5% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#21 of 32 Gold
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield5.68%
Stop $16.28Target $20.40(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $17.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.00, quality 7.8/10, growth 10.0/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Aris Mining Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:56:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.8 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.6
P/E (Fwd)
Mkt Cap$3.5B
EV/EBITDA6.6
Profit Mgn15.2%
ROE12.9%
Rev Growth136.5%
Beta1.91
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C2.40bearish
IV57%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2M

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.7
Obv
1.0
Volume
3.1
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
2.5
Value Rank
4.8
Growth Rank
7.4
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $16.64Resistance $20.82

Price Targets

$16
$20
A.Upside+16.5%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARIS stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $17.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.00, quality 7.8/10, growth 10.0/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $20.40 (+16.5%), stop $16.28 (−7.6%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ARIS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.40 (+16.5% upside). Target $20.40 (+16.5%), stop $16.28 (−7.6%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $16.28.

What are the risks of investing in ARIS?

Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.

Is ARIS overvalued or undervalued?

Aris Mining Corporation trades at a P/E of 19.6 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ARIS?

11 analysts cover ARIS with a consensus score of 4.1/5.

What does Aris Mining Corporation do?Aris Mining Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and...

Aris Mining Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold properties in Canada, Colombia, and Guyana. It also explores for silver and copper deposits. Aris Mining Corporation was formerly known as GCM Mining Corp. and changed its name to Aris Mining Corporation in September 2022. The company was founded in 20222 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.

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