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GFIGold Fields LimitedBuy Wait7.1·$40.38
Buy WaitHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Gold Fields is a high-quality franchise with a wide economic moat, 71% year-over-year growth, and an attractive forward valuation near 7 times earnings, though an extreme put/call ratio and a pullback below the 200-day moving average suggest elevated near-term uncertainty.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Earnings Growth→Stable
  • Attractive Forward Valuation↑Improving
  • High Quality Wide Moat Franchise→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Gold Fields Limited (GFI) Stock Analysis

Temporary headwind edge

Buy WaitValueGrowthQualityHigh Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Wait for pullback to $37.78. At $40.38 the A.R:R is 1.0:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $37.78 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 7.9%; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Gold Fields Limited operates as a gold producer with reserves and resources in South Africa, Ghana, Australia, Peru, Canada, and Chile. It also explores for gold, copper and silver deposits. Gold Fields Limited was founded in 1887 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.

$40.38+7.9% A.UpsideScore 7.1/10#3 of 43 Gold
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield11.75%
IncomeYield5.27%(5y avg 2.92%)Payout31.81%sustainable
Entry $37.78(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $34.66Target $43.58(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$50.09+24.0%8 analysts
$43.58our TP
$40.38price
$50.09mean
$57

Wait for pullback to $37.78. At $40.38 the A.R:R is 1.0:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $37.78 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 7.9%; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 1.9 < 4.5 minimum; R/R 1.0x at spot < 1.5 minimum; SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3. Wait for improvement. Score 7.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 146d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and sector concentration cap sector=basic materials count=3 cap=3. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-26

Recent Developments — Gold Fields Limited

Generated 2026-09-26T04:42:00Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Feb 19, 2027146d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.9 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong overall score: 7.1/10
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.9%
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.3
P/E (Fwd)7.8
Mkt Cap$35.5B
EV/EBITDA10.1
Profit Mgn38.7%
ROE58.7%
Rev Growth78.9%
Beta0.65
Dividend5.27%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.38bullish
IV57%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.1
Rsi
3.0
Ma Position
4.2
Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.9<4.5A.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotSECTOR CONCENTRATION CAP sector=Basic Materials count=3 cap=3Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 146d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
25 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $39.27Resistance $47.58

Price Targets

$35
$38
$44
A.Upside+7.9%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %2%
Max %4.1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum 1.9 < 4.5 minimum
! R/R 1.0x at spot < 1.5 minimum
! SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-19 (146d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GFI stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $37.78. At $40.38 the A.R:R is 1.0:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $37.78 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 7.9%; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 1.9 < 4.5 minimum; R/R 1.0x at spot < 1.5 minimum; SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Basic Materials:count=3:cap=3. Wait for improvement. Target $43.58 (+7.9%), stop $34.66 (−16.5%), A.R:R 1.0:1. Score 7.1/10, high confidence.

What is the GFI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $43.58 (+7.9% upside). Target $43.58 (+7.9%), stop $34.66 (−16.5%), A.R:R 1.0:1. Stop-loss: $34.66.

What are the risks of investing in GFI?

Thin upside margin: 7.9%; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Negative momentum.

Is GFI overvalued or undervalued?

Gold Fields Limited trades at a P/E of 8.3 (forward 7.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about GFI?

14 analysts cover GFI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $50.

What does Gold Fields Limited do?Gold Fields Limited operates as a gold producer with reserves and resources in South Africa, Ghana, Australia, Peru,...

Gold Fields Limited operates as a gold producer with reserves and resources in South Africa, Ghana, Australia, Peru, Canada, and Chile. It also explores for gold, copper and silver deposits. Gold Fields Limited was founded in 1887 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.

Related stocks: OGC (OceanaGold Corporation) · KGC (Kinross Gold Corporation) · ARIS (Aris Mining Corporation) · HMY (Harmony Gold Mining Company Lim) · AGI (Alamos Gold Inc.)
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