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GFIGold Fields LimitedBuy Wait7.2·$36.75
Buy WaitHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Gold Fields is a high-quality franchise with a wide economic moat, 71% year-over-year growth, and an attractive forward valuation near 7 times earnings, though an extreme put/call ratio and a pullback below the 200-day moving average suggest elevated near-term uncertainty.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Earnings Growth→Stable
  • Attractive Forward Valuation→Stable
  • High Quality Wide Moat Franchise→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Gold Fields Limited (GFI) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Sector Rotation edge

Buy WaitValueGrowthQualityHigh Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Wait for pullback to $35.30. At $36.75 the A.R:R is 1.0:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $35.30 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Gold Fields Limited operates as a gold producer with reserves and resources in South Africa, Ghana, Australia, Peru, Canada, and Chile. It also explores for gold, copper and silver deposits. Gold Fields Limited was founded in 1887 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.

$36.75+12.1% A.UpsideScore 7.2/10#3 of 45 Gold
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield12.75%
IncomeYield5.86%(5y avg 2.71%)Payout31.81%sustainable
Entry $35.30(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $32.83Target $41.18(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst consensus$47.34+28.8%8 analysts with price targets
$41.18our TP
$36.75price
$47.34mean
$57

Wait for pullback to $35.30. At $36.75 the A.R:R is 1.0:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $35.30 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. V9 Gate blocked: R/R 1.0x at spot < 1.5 minimum; 50MA < 200MA with weak momentum (4.7) - hard block. Wait for improvement. Score 7.2/10, high confidence.

Passes 8/11 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 106d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=basic materials 2/3). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Nov 3, 2026

Recent Developments — Gold Fields Limited

Latest item Nov 3, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:29:00Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Feb 19, 2027106d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.9 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong overall score: 7.2/10
Risks
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.5
P/E (Fwd)7.6
Mkt Cap$32.7B
EV/EBITDA9.3
Profit Mgn38.7%
ROE58.7%
Rev Growth78.9%
Beta0.75
Dividend5.86%
Analysts with ratings14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.93neutral
IV61%elevated
Max Pain$23-38.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
2.4
52w Position
2.7
Bollinger
3.0
Gap
3.0
Extreme gap up (5.0%) - may pull back
GatesA.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 106d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSECTOR CONCENTRATION CAP sector=Basic Materials 2/3RecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
49 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $32.28Resistance $38.15

Price Targets

$33
$35
$41
A.Upside+12.1%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.8%
Max %1.6%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! R/R 1.0x at spot < 1.5 minimum
! 50MA < 200MA with weak momentum (4.7) - hard block
! asymmetry at 1.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-19 (106d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GFI stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $35.30. At $36.75 the A.R:R is 1.0:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $35.30 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. V9 Gate blocked: R/R 1.0x at spot < 1.5 minimum; 50MA < 200MA with weak momentum (4.7) - hard block. Wait for improvement. Target $41.18 (+12.1%), stop $32.83 (−11.9%), A.R:R 1.0:1. Score 7.2/10, high confidence.

What is the GFI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $41.18 (+12.1% upside). Target $41.18 (+12.1%), stop $32.83 (−11.9%), A.R:R 1.0:1. Stop-loss: $32.83.

What are the risks of investing in GFI?

Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is GFI overvalued or undervalued?

Gold Fields Limited trades at a P/E of 7.5 (forward 7.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about GFI?

14 analysts rate GFI, with a consensus score of 3.9/5. 8 analysts publish price targets averaging $47.

What does Gold Fields Limited do?Gold Fields Limited operates as a gold producer with reserves and resources in South Africa, Ghana, Australia, Peru,...

Gold Fields Limited operates as a gold producer with reserves and resources in South Africa, Ghana, Australia, Peru, Canada, and Chile. It also explores for gold, copper and silver deposits. Gold Fields Limited was founded in 1887 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.

Related stocks: IAG (Iamgold Corporation) · OGC (OceanaGold Corporation) · B (Barrick Mining Corporation) · HMY (Harmony Gold Mining Company Lim) · PAAS (Pan American Silver Corp.)
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