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GFIGold Fields LimitedBuy Wait7.0·$47.52-1.33%
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Gold Fields is a high-quality franchise with a wide economic moat, 71% year-over-year growth, and an attractive forward valuation near 7 times earnings, though an extreme put/call ratio and a pullback below the 200-day moving average suggest elevated near-term uncertainty.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Revenue Earnings GrowthStable
  • Attractive Forward ValuationDeteriorating
  • High Quality Wide Moat FranchiseStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Gold Fields Limited (GFI) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Wait for pullback to $32.74. BUY gates pass at $47.52, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $32.74 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Gold Fields Limited operates as a gold producer with reserves and resources in South Africa, Ghana, Australia, Peru, Canada, and Chile. It also explores for gold, copper and silver deposits. Gold Fields Limited was founded in 1887 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.

$47.52-11.0% A.UpsideScore 7.0/10#7 of 42 Gold
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield9.89%
IncomeYield4.82%(5y avg 2.87%)Payout31.81%sustainable
Entry $32.74(Ma200 Sticky)Stop $28.70Target $48.12(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$48.46+2.0%8 analysts
$48.12our TP
$47.52price
$48.46mean
$40
$57

Wait for pullback to $32.74. BUY gates pass at $47.52, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $32.74 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-11.0% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 166d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-05

Recent Developments — Gold Fields Limited

Generated 2026-09-05T21:17:36Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Feb 19, 2027166d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.9 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong overall score: 7.0/10
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.8
P/E (Fwd)8.9
Mkt Cap$42.2B
EV/EBITDA11.9
Profit Mgn38.7%
ROE58.7%
Rev Growth78.9%
Beta0.65
Dividend4.82%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C8.42bearish
IV71%elevated
Max Pain$55+15.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 ceiling hits

GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 166d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $39.21Resistance $49.10

Price Targets

$29
$33
$48
A.Upside-11.0%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-19 (166d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GFI stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $32.74. BUY gates pass at $47.52, but analyst target reached - limited upside remaining and sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1 argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $32.74 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-11.0% upside). Wait for pullback. Target $48.12 (+1.3%), stop $28.70 (−65.6%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 7.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GFI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $48.12 (-11.0% upside). Target $48.12 (+1.3%), stop $28.70 (−65.6%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $28.70.

What are the risks of investing in GFI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Is GFI overvalued or undervalued?

Gold Fields Limited trades at a P/E of 9.8 (forward 8.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about GFI?

14 analysts cover GFI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $48.

What does Gold Fields Limited do?Gold Fields Limited operates as a gold producer with reserves and resources in South Africa, Ghana, Australia, Peru,...

Gold Fields Limited operates as a gold producer with reserves and resources in South Africa, Ghana, Australia, Peru, Canada, and Chile. It also explores for gold, copper and silver deposits. Gold Fields Limited was founded in 1887 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.

Related stocks: OGC (OceanaGold Corporation) · KGC (Kinross Gold Corporation) · IAG (Iamgold Corporation) · B (Barrick Mining Corporation) · HMY (Harmony Gold Mining Company Lim)
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