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REFReformation Inc.Sell6.0·$14.51+3.42%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

REF pairs a genuinely strong 30% growth profile and double-digit analyst upside with a failed momentum gate, a risk-off sector penalty, and heavy insider selling, leaving the stock's near-term trend at odds with its longer-term growth story.

Thesis pillars

  • Strong Growth ProfileDeteriorating
  • Momentum Gate FailedDeteriorating
  • Sector Risk Off PenaltyDeteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Reformation Inc. (REF) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.51: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10.

Reformation Inc. manufactures and sells sustainable women's clothing and accessories in the United States and Internationally. It offers dresses, tops, pants, skirts, shorts, jeans, sweaters, shoes, jumpsuits, two-piece sets, outerwear, sleep and loungewear, swimwear, and... Read more

$14.51+15.4% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#4 of 17 Apparel Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
Stop $13.49Target $16.75(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$19.25+32.7%8 analysts
$16.75our TP
$14.51price
$19.25mean
$21

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.51: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 10, 202657d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Heavy insider selling (2.0 < 2.5)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)70.1
P/E (Fwd)19.4
Mkt Cap$829M
EV/EBITDA25.2
Profit Mgn2.0%
ROE
Rev Growth24.1%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.22bullish
IV63%elevated
Max Pain$18+20.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Insiders leaning net-seller recently. Could be diversification/taxes rather than view, but the signal is not supportive.static

Materiality
2.0
Insider Conviction
2.0
Heavy insider selling — $58,467,631 (7.054% of mkt cap)
GatesA.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotINSIDER 7.05%=EXTREMEMomentum 6.0>=5.5No SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $12.83Resistance $16.16

Price Targets

$13
$17
A.Upside+15.4%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Heavy insider selling (2.0 < 2.5)
! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Insider activity: 7.05%=extreme

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-10 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is REF stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.51: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $13.49. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the REF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $16.75 (+15.4% upside). Prior stop was $13.49. Stop-loss: $13.49.

What are the risks of investing in REF?

Heavy insider selling (2.0 < 2.5).

Is REF overvalued or undervalued?

Reformation Inc. trades at a P/E of 70.1 (forward 19.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

0
What does Reformation Inc. do?Reformation Inc. manufactures and sells sustainable women's clothing and accessories in the United States and...

Reformation Inc. manufactures and sells sustainable women's clothing and accessories in the United States and Internationally. It offers dresses, tops, pants, skirts, shorts, jeans, sweaters, shoes, jumpsuits, two-piece sets, outerwear, sleep and loungewear, swimwear, and accessories. The company also offers wedding collection. It retails its product through website, online channels, and stores, well as through wholesalers and other channels. The company was formerly known as REF Topco, Inc. and changed its name to Reformation Inc. in April 2025. Reformation Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Vernon, California.

Related stocks: ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch Company) · CRI (Carter's, Inc.) · BOOT (Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.) · URBN (Urban Outfitters, Inc.) · AEO (American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.)
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