Value
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.1 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
REF · Why this verdict
Why Reformation (REF) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Reformation is a fast-growing apparel retailer with strong financial health and 22.6% upside to the analyst target, but extreme insider selling (7.2% of market cap) and a consumer-cyclical headwind keep the engine from recommending a position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Growth is strong at 24% YoY, earning a growth score of 9.2 and an industry growth leader flag. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterApparel demand is discretionary, and growth confidence is only 0.67, so a consumer slowdown could stall growth quickly. | ||
Insiders sold $58,340,152 net over 90 days (7.229% of market cap), which fails the insider gate as extreme. Insider breakdown | Net insider selling should fall below 1% of market cap over the next two quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSelling by early holders after a listing is often a lock-up liquidity event rather than a view on the business, and insiders also made 3 purchases. | ||
The analyst target of $16.75 implies 22.6% upside from $13.66, giving an asymmetry ratio of 1.71 that clears the 1.5 gate. Bull case | Price should move toward the $16.75 analyst target over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light at 8 analysts, so the signal is dampened, and the stop sits 13.3% below the price. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a forward P/E of 18.3x with a PEG of 0.07 point to a financially sound business at a growth-adjusted discount. Valuation breakdown | Piotroski F-Score should stay at 7/9 or better as growth continues. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA low PEG depends on forward growth estimates, and an 18.3x forward P/E for a cyclical retailer leaves little room for a miss. | ||
Implied volatility is 86% and debt-to-equity of 1.2 carries a leverage penalty, adding risk to a consumer-cyclical name. Risk breakdown | Implied volatility should fall below 60% and leverage should hold below 1.2 debt-to-equity. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh implied volatility around the 2026-11-10 earnings is common for recently listed small caps and fades after the print. | ||
Growth is strong at 24% YoY, earning a growth score of 9.2 and an industry growth leader flag.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 15% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterApparel demand is discretionary, and growth confidence is only 0.67, so a consumer slowdown could stall growth quickly.
Insiders sold $58,340,152 net over 90 days (7.229% of market cap), which fails the insider gate as extreme.
↑ImprovingInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Net insider selling should fall below 1% of market cap over the next two quarters.
CounterSelling by early holders after a listing is often a lock-up liquidity event rather than a view on the business, and insiders also made 3 purchases.
The analyst target of $16.75 implies 22.6% upside from $13.66, giving an asymmetry ratio of 1.71 that clears the 1.5 gate.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the $16.75 analyst target over 12 months.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light at 8 analysts, so the signal is dampened, and the stop sits 13.3% below the price.
A Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a forward P/E of 18.3x with a PEG of 0.07 point to a financially sound business at a growth-adjusted discount.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score should stay at 7/9 or better as growth continues.
CounterA low PEG depends on forward growth estimates, and an 18.3x forward P/E for a cyclical retailer leaves little room for a miss.
Implied volatility is 86% and debt-to-equity of 1.2 carries a leverage penalty, adding risk to a consumer-cyclical name.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Implied volatility should fall below 60% and leverage should hold below 1.2 debt-to-equity.
CounterHigh implied volatility around the 2026-11-10 earnings is common for recently listed small caps and fades after the print.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 8.3 |
| Op margin | 4.9 |
| Net margin | 1.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.7 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
9.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 6.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.7 |
| Analyst rating | 7.9 |
| Price target | 8.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 4.6 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $58,340,152 (6.338% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.0 |
| quality rank | 1.3 |
| growth rank | 9.3 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.9 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 6.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 4.7 |
- ▸High IV: 73%
- ▸Above max pain $10
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.2 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot
- INSIDER:6.34%=EXTREME
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
0.50
Upside
+7.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 9.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.5<1.5@spot, INSIDER:6.34%=EXTREME) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.50 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.2, Momentum at 7.5, and Sentiment at 7.2; the weakest are Technical at 3.8, Peer rank at 3.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.50 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Extreme Insider Selling
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds 10% of market cap over a 90-day window.
- P3Analyst Upside Asymmetry
Trip ifPrice falls below the $12.70 stop level, cutting upside to the target below 10%.
- P4Strong Financial Health
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6/9.
- P5Elevated Risk Leverage Penalty
Trip ifDebt-to-equity exceeds 1.5 from the current 1.2.