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American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $15.36: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

American Eagle Outfitters operates ~1,168 company-owned stores in the US, Canada, and Mexico plus 357 licensed locations internationally under the American Eagle, Aerie, OFFLINE by Aerie, Todd Snyder, and Unsubscribed brands. Digital sales represented 39% of total revenue in... Read more

$15.36+31.5% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#1 of 12 Apparel Retail
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.93%
IncomeYield3.36%(5y avg 3.01%)Payout45.87%sustainable
Stop $14.28Target $20.20(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.5:1
Analyst target$23.22+51.2%9 analysts
$20.20our TP
$15.36price
$23.22mean
$35

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $15.36: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Score 6.2/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Analyst upside: 32%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.6
P/E (Fwd)7.5
Mkt Cap$2.5B
EV/EBITDA7.2
Profit Mgn3.5%
ROE10.7%
Rev Growth12.9%
Beta1.36
Dividend3.36%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.65bullish
IV95%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 9d<=14d (soft)Momentum 4.8>=4.5A.R:R 3.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
32 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $14.69Resistance $19.72

Price Targets

$14
$20
A.Upside+31.5%
A.R:R3.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts21
Consensus2.7/5
Avg Target$23

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-28 (9d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AEO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $15.36: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $14.28. Score 6.2/10, high confidence.

What is the AEO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.20 (+31.5% upside). Prior stop was $14.28. Stop-loss: $14.28.

What are the risks of investing in AEO?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5.

Is AEO overvalued or undervalued?

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.6 (forward 7.5). TrendMatrix value score: 9.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AEO?

21 analysts cover AEO with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $23.

What does American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. do?American Eagle Outfitters operates ~1,168 company-owned stores in the US, Canada, and Mexico plus 357 licensed...

American Eagle Outfitters operates ~1,168 company-owned stores in the US, Canada, and Mexico plus 357 licensed locations internationally under the American Eagle, Aerie, OFFLINE by Aerie, Todd Snyder, and Unsubscribed brands. Digital sales represented 39% of total revenue in Fiscal 2025; the company sources merchandise primarily from non-North American suppliers with no single factory exceeding 10% of purchases.

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