Ryder System is a fleet leasing company with a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak and exceptional free cash flow conversion of 147% of net income, but trading above analyst price targets with negative upside of -17%, an elevated put/call ratio of 1.85, and a dividend payout ratio of 131% that signals a yield that may not be sustainable long-term.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Earnings Beat Execution→Stable
- Strong Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- Stock Above Analyst Targets→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Ryder System, Inc. (R) Stock Analysis
Catalyst-Driven edge
Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $260.72: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.
Ryder System provides outsourced logistics and transportation services in North America through three segments: Fleet Management Solutions (38% of 2025 revenue), Supply Chain Solutions (43%), and Dedicated Transportation Solutions (18%). Long-term contractual arrangements with... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $260.72: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 19d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Ryder System, Inc.
About Ryder System, Inc.
Ryder System's three segments — Supply Chain Solutions (SCS, 43% of 2025 consolidated revenue), Fleet Management Solutions (FMS, 38%), and Dedicated Transportation Solutions (DTS, 18%) — cover the full outsourced logistics spectrum from port-to-door. FMS operated 789 service locations across 49 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and seven Canadian provinces at December 31, 2025, managing 141,700 ChoiceLease vehicles across 11,700 customers and a 31,600-unit commercial rental fleet serving 27,200 customers.
Ryder earns revenue through long-term contractual arrangements: ChoiceLease agreements run three to seven years for trucks and tractors and up to ten years for trailers, with pricing tied to residual value estimates and maintenance cost assumptions. ChoiceLease contributed 60% of FMS segment revenue in 2025, commercial rental 16%, SelectCare contract maintenance 12%, and fuel services 12%. In SCS, distribution management generated approximately 36% of segment revenue, e-commerce and last mile 18%, dedicated transportation approximately 28%, and transportation management 12%. SCS managed 319 warehouses totaling 105 million square feet and executed $9.8 billion in freight moves on behalf of customers in 2025. Residual values of the fleet — particularly used commercial vehicles — are subject to material pricing volatility, which the 10-K identifies as a risk capable of producing write-downs or gains depending on market conditions.
Show full overview
Ryder's SCS and DTS segments derive a concentrated share of business from a limited customer set: the top 10 customers in each segment accounted for approximately one-third of revenue for each segment in 2025. Because SCS and DTS together represented 61% of consolidated revenue, a sustained reduction from one or more large customers could weigh on total results. The 10-K notes that many SCS customers operate in cyclical industries — automotive, consumer packaged goods, and omnichannel retail — meaning a sector downturn may compress volumes across multiple large accounts simultaneously.
See also: Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services
From Ryder System, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Ryder System, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Barclays Maintains Overweight on Ryder System, Raises Price Target to $290 — benzinga Jun 26, 2026 positive
- NEWS Delta Air Lines To Rally Around 12%? Here Are 10 Top Analyst Forecasts For Wednesday — benzinga Jun 17, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Baird Maintains Outperform on Ryder System, Raises Price Target to $290 — benzinga Jun 17, 2026 positive
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Ryder System, Raises Price Target to $290 — benzinga Jun 5, 2026 positive
- NEWS Ryder Authorizes Repurchase Of Up To 2.0 M Shares Under New Plan Through May 1 2028 — benzinga May 1, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-07-06T06:10:55Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop-10 SCS and DTS customers10-K Item 1A: 'sales to our top ten customers in each of SCS and DTS accounted for approximately one-third of total revenue and operating revenue for each segment'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -0.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $260.72: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $249.07. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $278.56 (+6.8% upside). Prior stop was $249.07. Stop-loss: $249.07.
Target reached (-8.5% upside); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).
Ryder System, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.6 (forward 14.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
16 analysts cover R with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $274.
What does Ryder System, Inc. do?Ryder System provides outsourced logistics and transportation services in North America through three segments: Fleet...
Ryder System provides outsourced logistics and transportation services in North America through three segments: Fleet Management Solutions (38% of 2025 revenue), Supply Chain Solutions (43%), and Dedicated Transportation Solutions (18%). Long-term contractual arrangements with manufacturers, retailers, and logistics customers generate revenue from fleet leasing, warehousing, and dedicated transportation, with 789 FMS operating locations and 319 SCS warehouses at year-end 2025.