Ryder System is a fleet leasing company with a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak and exceptional free cash flow conversion of 147% of net income, but trading above analyst price targets with negative upside of -17%, an elevated put/call ratio of 1.85, and a dividend payout ratio of 131% that signals a yield that may not be sustainable long-term.
Thesis pillars
- Perfect Earnings Beat Execution↑Improving
- Strong Free Cash Flow Conversion→Stable
- Stock Above Analyst Targets↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Ryder System, Inc. (R) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services
Sell if holding. At $249.88, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.3%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1).
Ryder System provides outsourced logistics and transportation services in North America through three segments: Fleet Management Solutions (38% of 2025 revenue), Supply Chain Solutions (43%), and Dedicated Transportation Solutions (18%). Long-term contractual arrangements with... Read more
Sell if holding. At $249.88, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.3%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Ryder System, Inc.
About Ryder System, Inc.
Ryder System's three segments — Supply Chain Solutions (SCS, 43% of 2025 consolidated revenue), Fleet Management Solutions (FMS, 38%), and Dedicated Transportation Solutions (DTS, 18%) — cover the full outsourced logistics spectrum from port-to-door. FMS operated 789 service locations across 49 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and seven Canadian provinces at December 31, 2025, managing 141,700 ChoiceLease vehicles across 11,700 customers and a 31,600-unit commercial rental fleet serving 27,200 customers.
Ryder earns revenue through long-term contractual arrangements: ChoiceLease agreements run three to seven years for trucks and tractors and up to ten years for trailers, with pricing tied to residual value estimates and maintenance cost assumptions. ChoiceLease contributed 60% of FMS segment revenue in 2025, commercial rental 16%, SelectCare contract maintenance 12%, and fuel services 12%. In SCS, distribution management generated approximately 36% of segment revenue, e-commerce and last mile 18%, dedicated transportation approximately 28%, and transportation management 12%. SCS managed 319 warehouses totaling 105 million square feet and executed $9.8 billion in freight moves on behalf of customers in 2025. Residual values of the fleet — particularly used commercial vehicles — are subject to material pricing volatility, which the 10-K identifies as a risk capable of producing write-downs or gains depending on market conditions.
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Ryder's SCS and DTS segments derive a concentrated share of business from a limited customer set: the top 10 customers in each segment accounted for approximately one-third of revenue for each segment in 2025. Because SCS and DTS together represented 61% of consolidated revenue, a sustained reduction from one or more large customers could weigh on total results. The 10-K notes that many SCS customers operate in cyclical industries — automotive, consumer packaged goods, and omnichannel retail — meaning a sector downturn may compress volumes across multiple large accounts simultaneously.
See also: Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services
From Ryder System, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-04Recent Developments — Ryder System, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Barclays Maintains Overweight on Ryder System, Raises Price Target to $300 — benzinga Jul 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Citigroup Maintains Neutral on Ryder System, Raises Price Target to $283 — benzinga Jul 24, 2026 neutral
- NEWS JP Morgan Maintains Neutral on Ryder System, Raises Price Target to $296 — benzinga Jul 24, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Ryder System, Raises Price Target to $300 — benzinga Jul 24, 2026 positive
- NEWS Susquehanna Maintains Positive on Ryder System, Raises Price Target to $310 — benzinga Jul 24, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-09-04T15:02:11Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop-10 SCS and DTS customers10-K Item 1A: 'sales to our top ten customers in each of SCS and DTS accounted for approximately one-third of total revenue and operating revenue for each segment'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $249.88, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.3%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $239.04. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $260.61 (+4.3% upside). Prior stop was $239.04. Stop-loss: $239.04.
Thin upside margin: 4.3%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Ryder System, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.8 (forward 13.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts cover R with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $300.
What does Ryder System, Inc. do?Ryder System provides outsourced logistics and transportation services in North America through three segments: Fleet...
Ryder System provides outsourced logistics and transportation services in North America through three segments: Fleet Management Solutions (38% of 2025 revenue), Supply Chain Solutions (43%), and Dedicated Transportation Solutions (18%). Long-term contractual arrangements with manufacturers, retailers, and logistics customers generate revenue from fleet leasing, warehousing, and dedicated transportation, with 789 FMS operating locations and 319 SCS warehouses at year-end 2025.