Value
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.7 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.9 |
| PEG | 1.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.2x
- ▸PEG: 6.08
R · Why this verdict
Why Ryder System (R) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ryder System is a fleet leasing company with a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak and exceptional free cash flow conversion of 147% of net income, but trading above analyst price targets with negative upside of -17%, an elevated put/call ratio of 1.85, and a dividend payout ratio of 131% that signals a yield that may not be sustainable long-term.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Ryder has delivered positive earnings surprises in all four of the last four quarters with an average beat of 5.0%, reporting $2.54 against the $2.27 estimate in April 2026 and consistent beats in every prior quarter, demonstrating reliable management execution and guidance discipline. Earnings | The earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAverage beats of 5% over four quarters represent a narrow margin, and with the stock already trading above analyst targets, the market may have already priced in the execution premium. | ||
Converting 147% of net income into free cash flow gives Ryder significant financial flexibility to fund fleet investment, debt repayment, and shareholder returns beyond what the income statement alone would suggest. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 120% for at least 2 consecutive annual reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterA dividend payout ratio of 131% relative to net income signals the dividend is being funded from sources beyond net income, which is only sustainable as long as free cash flow exceeds stated earnings. | ||
At $277.23, Ryder trades above its analyst consensus price target with only 0.5% upside to the near-term resistance level and a negative asymmetry ratio of -1.1, meaning the stock is priced for perfection with virtually no room for fundamental disappointment. Warnings | Analyst price targets are revised upward above $300 following sustained earnings beats and fleet utilization improvements. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRSI is at 79 (overbought) with falling on-balance volume, suggesting a natural price consolidation is likely before analysts revise targets upward to match the current price level. | ||
An elevated put/call ratio of 1.85 and a current stock price above the options market's maximum pain level of $155 indicate that options market participants are positioned for a significant price decline, which is an unusual bearish signal given the strong earnings momentum. Risk breakdown | The put/call ratio declines below 1.0 as the stock consolidates and options positioning normalizes. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPut/call ratios above 1.5 can reflect hedging by long shareholders rather than outright bearish speculation, particularly for an overbought stock near its 52-week high. | ||
Ryder has delivered positive earnings surprises in all four of the last four quarters with an average beat of 5.0%, reporting $2.54 against the $2.27 estimate in April 2026 and consistent beats in every prior quarter, demonstrating reliable management execution and guidance discipline.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters.
CounterAverage beats of 5% over four quarters represent a narrow margin, and with the stock already trading above analyst targets, the market may have already priced in the execution premium.
Converting 147% of net income into free cash flow gives Ryder significant financial flexibility to fund fleet investment, debt repayment, and shareholder returns beyond what the income statement alone would suggest.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 120% for at least 2 consecutive annual reporting periods.
CounterA dividend payout ratio of 131% relative to net income signals the dividend is being funded from sources beyond net income, which is only sustainable as long as free cash flow exceeds stated earnings.
At $277.23, Ryder trades above its analyst consensus price target with only 0.5% upside to the near-term resistance level and a negative asymmetry ratio of -1.1, meaning the stock is priced for perfection with virtually no room for fundamental disappointment.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised upward above $300 following sustained earnings beats and fleet utilization improvements.
CounterRSI is at 79 (overbought) with falling on-balance volume, suggesting a natural price consolidation is likely before analysts revise targets upward to match the current price level.
An elevated put/call ratio of 1.85 and a current stock price above the options market's maximum pain level of $155 indicate that options market participants are positioned for a significant price decline, which is an unusual bearish signal given the strong earnings momentum.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio declines below 1.0 as the stock consolidates and options positioning normalizes.
CounterPut/call ratios above 1.5 can reflect hedging by long shareholders rather than outright bearish speculation, particularly for an overbought stock near its 52-week high.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.6 |
| ROA | 2.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 2.8 |
| Net margin | 2.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.7 |
| FCF quality | 9.9 |
| Moat | 3.6 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 147% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
2.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
| EPS growth | 2.5 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -0%
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 7.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,568,929 (0.015% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 1.2 |
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.2 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 5.7 |
| beta | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 1.9 |
Catalyst
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 2 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.50
Upside
-9.7%
Downside
6.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.5=NEGATIVE outcome against Insider at 7.3 and asymmetric R:R of -1.50.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Catalyst at 6.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.2; the weakest are Growth at 2.5, Technical at 3.5, and Quality at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.50 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Execution
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Strong Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 100% of net income in any reported annual period.
- P3Stock Above Analyst Targets
Trip ifThe stock price rises above $310, extending the overshoot beyond analyst targets by more than 15%.
- P4Elevated Put Call Bearish Options
Trip ifThe put/call ratio rises above 2.5, signaling accelerated bearish options positioning.