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Ryder System, Inc. (R) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $235.66: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Ryder System is a leading North American outsourced logistics and transportation company operating through three segments: Fleet Management Solutions (full-service leasing, commercial rental, maintenance for 141,700 lease vehicles), Supply Chain Solutions (port-to-door logistics... Read more

$235.66+7.3% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#12 of 16 Rental & Leasing Services
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield8.20%
IncomeYield1.60%(5y avg 2.43%)Payout29.40%sustainable
Stop $220.47Target $252.82(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$260.88+10.7%8 analysts
$252.82our TP
$235.66price
$260.88mean
$290

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $235.66: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Ryder System, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-3.7% upside)
Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.9
P/E (Fwd)13.0
Mkt Cap$8.8B
EV/EBITDA6.2
Profit Mgn3.9%
ROE16.9%
Rev Growth-0.2%
Beta1.03
Dividend1.60%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.43bullish
IV43%normal
Max Pain$155-34.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop-10 customers in SCS and DTS
    10-K Item 1A: 'During 2025, sales to our top ten customers in each of SCS and DTS accounted for approximately one-third of total revenue and operating revenue for each segment.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -0.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.5
Earnings Growth
2.5
Declining revenue: -0%

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
6.0
Rsi
7.9
Uptrend pullback (RSI 36) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
2.0
Roa
2.6
Current Ratio
2.7
Operating Margin
2.8
Moat
3.6
Piotroski F
4.4
Roe
5.6
Fcf Quality
9.9
Excellent cash conversion: 147% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 63d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
36 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $224.04Resistance $257.98

Price Targets

$220
$253
A.Upside+7.3%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.7% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (63d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is R stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $235.66: Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $220.47. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the R stock price target?

Take-profit target: $252.82 (+7.3% upside). Prior stop was $220.47. Stop-loss: $220.47.

What are the risks of investing in R?

Target reached (-3.7% upside); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).

Is R overvalued or undervalued?

Ryder System, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.9 (forward 13.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about R?

17 analysts cover R with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $261.

What does Ryder System, Inc. do?Ryder System is a leading North American outsourced logistics and transportation company operating through three...

Ryder System is a leading North American outsourced logistics and transportation company operating through three segments: Fleet Management Solutions (full-service leasing, commercial rental, maintenance for 141,700 lease vehicles), Supply Chain Solutions (port-to-door logistics across 319 warehouses), and Dedicated Transportation Solutions (turnkey private fleet management). Revenues are contractual with long-term customer agreements; FMS contributed 38%, SCS 43%, and DTS 18% of 2025 consolidated revenue.

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