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URIUnited Rentals, Inc.Sell5.7·$1009.86+1.61%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

United Rentals holds superior quality metrics versus peers — with a 28% return on equity, 15% operating margins, and a Piotroski score of 7 out of 9 — but 3 consecutive earnings misses and a deeply negative risk/reward ratio at the current price near the 52-week high make near-term entry unfavorable.

Thesis pillars

  • Superior Returns QualityStable
  • Earnings Miss StreakStable
  • Negative Risk Reward At PeakStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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United Rentals, Inc. (URI) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $1009.86 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

United Rentals, the largest equipment rental company in the world, operates 1,768 locations across 49 U.S. states, all Canadian provinces, and smaller presences in Europe, Australia, and New Zealand with a fleet of $22.5 billion in original equipment cost. The company generated... Read more

$1009.86+13.4% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#7 of 18 Rental & Leasing Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.71%
IncomeYield0.79%Payout18.09%sustainable
Stop $949.46Target $1145.19(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$1272.43+26.0%21 analysts
$1145.19our TP
$1009.86price
$1272.43mean
$1610

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $1009.86 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-05
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Oct 21, 202646d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Risks
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.9
P/E (Fwd)17.7
Mkt Cap$62.9B
EV/EBITDA16.7
Profit Mgn15.7%
ROE28.9%
Rev Growth11.8%
Beta1.79
Dividend0.79%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.93neutral
IV43%normal
Max Pain$1350+33.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.7
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.8
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 19)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 2.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 46d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
19 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $967.58Resistance $1176.44

Price Targets

$949
$1145
A.Upside+13.4%
A.R:R2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-21 (46d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is URI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $1009.86 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $949.46. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the URI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1145.19 (+13.4% upside). Prior stop was $949.46. Stop-loss: $949.46.

What are the risks of investing in URI?

Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is URI overvalued or undervalued?

United Rentals, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.9 (forward 17.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about URI?

27 analysts cover URI with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $1272.

What does United Rentals, Inc. do?United Rentals, the largest equipment rental company in the world, operates 1,768 locations across 49 U.S. states, all...

United Rentals, the largest equipment rental company in the world, operates 1,768 locations across 49 U.S. states, all Canadian provinces, and smaller presences in Europe, Australia, and New Zealand with a fleet of $22.5 billion in original equipment cost. The company generated $16,099 million in total revenue in 2025 across two segments — general rentals and specialty — with equipment rental representing 86% of revenues; its largest customer accounted for 1% of revenues and its top 10 for 5%.

Related stocks: GATX (GATX Corporation) · AER (AerCap Holdings N.V.) · SUNB (Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, Inc.) · R (Ryder System, Inc.) · UHAL (U-Haul Holding Company)
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