Restaurant Brands International combines strong momentum, an excellent free cash flow conversion of 173%, and positive news sentiment, but two consecutive earnings misses averaging -51% negative surprise and a stock already near its analyst price target with only 2.2% upside mean the risk-reward is unfavorable at the current price.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Cash Conversion Growth→Stable
- Consecutive Earnings Miss Concern→Stable
- Thin Upside Poor Asymmetry→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Restaurant Brands International (QSR) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Sell if holding. At $74.79, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 3.4%.
We are one of the world's largest quick service restaurant ("QSR") companies with nearly $47 billion in annual system-wide sales and over 33,000 restaurants in more than 120 countries and territories as of December 31, 2025. As of the date of this Annual Report on Form 10-K,... Read more
Sell if holding. At $74.79, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 3.4%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Restaurant Brands International
Latest news
- NEWS Restaurant Brands International (QSR) Projected to Post Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Analysts Offer Insights on Consumer Cyclical Companies: Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT), Restaurant Brands International — The Globe and Mail positive
- NEWS Are retail-wholesale stocks lagging Restaurant Brands International (QSR) this year? - MSN — MSN neutral
- NEWS When AI Ordering Becomes More Hype Than Help - QSR Magazine — QSR Magazine negative
- NEWS Restaurant Brands International (QSR) slides as investors weigh Popeyes weakness and cost outlook after Q1 report - Quiv — Quiver Quantitative negative
Generated 2026-07-06T06:20:29Z.
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Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $74.79, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 3.4%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $71.09. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $77.33 (+3.4% upside). Prior stop was $71.09. Stop-loss: $71.09.
Thin upside margin: 3.4%; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5.
Restaurant Brands International trades at a P/E of 24.0 (forward 16.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts cover QSR with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $86.
What does Restaurant Brands International do?We are one of the world's largest quick service restaurant ("QSR") companies with nearly $47 billion in annual...
We are one of the world's largest quick service restaurant ("QSR") companies with nearly $47 billion in annual system-wide sales and over 33,000 restaurants in more than 120 countries and territories as of December 31, 2025. As of the date of this Annual Report on Form 10-K, over 95% of system-wide restaurants were franchised restaurants.