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Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. At $158.13, A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: mainland China; Concentration risk — Customer: Yum China.

Yum! Brands operates over 63,000 restaurants in 155 countries under four concepts—KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, and Habit Burger & Grill—with 97% of units run by franchisees as of December 31, 2025. The company earns royalties and fees on $68.3B in annual system sales rather than... Read more

$158.13+0.7% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#2 of 20 Restaurants
Stop $153.38Target $160.88(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$172.46+9.1%24 analysts
$160.88our TP
$158.13price
$172.46mean
$147
$200

Sell if holding. At $158.13, A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: mainland China; Concentration risk — Customer: Yum China. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: mainland China
Concentration risk — Customer: Yum China
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.8
P/E (Fwd)21.4
Mkt Cap$44.2B
EV/EBITDA19.5
Profit Mgn19.0%
ROE
Rev Growth6.5%
Beta0.66
Dividend1.88%
Rating analysts35

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.40bearish
IV47%normal
Max Pain$110-30.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicmainland China
    10-K Item 1A: 'A meaningful portion of our total business, particularly with respect to our KFC Concept, is conducted in mainland China through our largest franchisee, Yum China'
  • HIGHCustomerYum China
    10-K Item 1A: 'We have franchise relationships that are particularly important to our business ... such as our relationship with Yum China, our largest franchisee'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-01Item 5.02LOW
    On March 26, 2026, YUM Board appointed Kathleen K. Oberg as director, effective April 1, 2026. She will stand for shareholder election at the next Annual Meeting. No committee assignment yet. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02LOW
    Keith Barr resigned from YUM Board effective February 10, 2026. Resignation not due to any disagreement with the Company; coincides with his appointment to a leadership position outside YUM. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $151.91Resistance $164.16

Price Targets

$153
$161
A.Upside+1.7%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.9% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is YUM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $158.13, A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: mainland China; Concentration risk — Customer: Yum China. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $153.38. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the YUM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $160.88 (+0.7% upside). Prior stop was $153.38. Stop-loss: $153.38.

What are the risks of investing in YUM?

Concentration risk — Geographic: mainland China; Concentration risk — Customer: Yum China; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is YUM overvalued or undervalued?

Yum! Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.8 (forward 21.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about YUM?

35 analysts cover YUM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $172.

What does Yum! Brands, Inc. do?Yum! Brands operates over 63,000 restaurants in 155 countries under four concepts—KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, and Habit...

Yum! Brands operates over 63,000 restaurants in 155 countries under four concepts—KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, and Habit Burger & Grill—with 97% of units run by franchisees as of December 31, 2025. The company earns royalties and fees on $68.3B in annual system sales rather than operating restaurants directly. A strategic review of Pizza Hut's future structure was underway as of year-end 2025.

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