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Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $152.19 — A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Yum! Brands franchises KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, and Habit Burger & Grill through over 63,000 restaurants in 155 countries, with 97% of units operated by franchisees. Revenue comes from franchise royalties (4-6% of sales) and company-owned restaurants; total system sales... Read more

$152.19+2.8% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#1 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.01%
IncomeYield1.97%(5y avg 1.80%)Payout46.45%sustainable
Stop $145.03Target $156.48(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$173.87+14.2%23 analysts
$156.48our TP
$152.19price
$173.87mean
$200

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $152.19 — A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Yum! Brands, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.3 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Negative news sentiment (-1.00)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.6
P/E (Fwd)20.3
Mkt Cap$42.0B
EV/EBITDA18.2
Profit Mgn20.5%
ROE
Rev Growth15.2%
Beta0.60
Dividend1.97%
Rating analysts35

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.63bullish
IV32%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-01Item 5.02LOW
    Kathleen K. Oberg appointed as director effective April 1, 2026; will stand for election at next annual meeting. Standard non-employee director compensation. No committee assignment disclosed at time of filing.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-12Item 5.02LOW
    Keith Barr resigned from Board effective February 10, 2026. Reason: recent appointment to a leadership position outside of YUM; no disagreement with Company on any matter relating to operations, policies, or practices.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.6
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.0
Uptrend pullback (RSI 35) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $149.39Resistance $163.54

Price Targets

$145
$156
A.Upside+2.8%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.8% upside)
! Red flag in news: 'bankruptcy'
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is YUM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $152.19 — A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $145.03. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the YUM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $156.48 (+2.8% upside). Prior stop was $145.03. Stop-loss: $145.03.

What are the risks of investing in YUM?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Negative news sentiment (-1.00).

Is YUM overvalued or undervalued?

Yum! Brands, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.6 (forward 20.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about YUM?

35 analysts cover YUM with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $174.

What does Yum! Brands, Inc. do?Yum! Brands franchises KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, and Habit Burger & Grill through over 63,000 restaurants in 155...

Yum! Brands franchises KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, and Habit Burger & Grill through over 63,000 restaurants in 155 countries, with 97% of units operated by franchisees. Revenue comes from franchise royalties (4-6% of sales) and company-owned restaurants; total system sales exceeded $68B in 2025. Yum China is the largest franchisee, paying a 3% royalty on mainland China system sales.

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