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YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc.Hold6.0·$43.65-1.36%
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Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $43.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: China; Below 200-day MA.

Yum China Holdings, the largest restaurant company in China by system sales, operates 18,101 KFC, Pizza Hut, Lavazza, Huang Ji Huang, Little Sheep, and Taco Bell restaurants across over 2,500 cities. The company generated $11.8 billion in revenues in 2025, with 83% of... Read more

$43.65+26.1% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#4 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield5.14%
IncomeYield2.62%(5y avg 1.30%)Payout38.70%sustainable
Stop $41.81Target $55.05(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 5.2:1
Analyst target$61.17+40.1%22 analysts
$55.05our TP
$43.65price
$61.17mean
$76

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $43.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: China; Below 200-day MA. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Yum China Holdings, Inc.

About Yum China Holdings, Inc.

Yum China Holdings operated 18,101 restaurants across over 2,500 Chinese cities at December 31, 2025 — the largest restaurant company in China by system sales — generating $11.8 billion in revenues. KFC's 12,997 units led the portfolio alongside Pizza Hut's 4,168 locations, and delivery contributed approximately 48% of company sales. Digital ordering accounted for approximately 94% of total company sales, with combined KFC and Pizza Hut loyalty membership exceeding 590 million.

Yum China earns revenue from company-owned restaurant sales (roughly 83% of the network) and franchise royalties and fees from an approximately 17% franchised base. The franchise mix of net new stores rose from 30% in 2024 to 37% in 2025 for KFC and from 10% to 31% for Pizza Hut; the company targets 40% to 50% franchise mix of new store openings for both brands from 2026 to 2028. The company centrally purchases food and paper from over 850 independent suppliers, mostly China-based, and distributes through 34 logistics centers covering over 2,500 cities. Key raw materials — protein (poultry, pork, beef, seafood), cheese, oil, and flour — are subject to price volatility from trade policy shifts and weather events. Licensing rights for KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell flow from the master license agreement with Yum! Brands, which requires meeting a Sales Growth Metric over each rolling five-year period.

Show full overview

Yum China's right to operate KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell in mainland China flows exclusively from its master license agreement with Yum! Brands. The 10-K discloses that at December 31, 2025, only 28 Taco Bell units existed against a contractual 2025 target of 225; Yum! Brands now has the right to end new Taco Bell sublicenses if renegotiation fails. Separately, PRC government controls on currency conversion and capital remittance could delay or restrict the transfer of profits offshore, compounding license risk with capital-access exposure inherent to any China-domiciled operating company.

See also: Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

From Yum China Holdings, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 26%
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: China
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.0
P/E (Fwd)13.6
Mkt Cap$15.3B
EV/EBITDA9.3
Profit Mgn7.8%
ROE16.3%
Rev Growth9.7%
Beta0.09
Dividend2.62%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.66bullish
IV46%normal
Max Pain$58+31.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicChina
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derive substantially all of our revenue from our operations in China'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.6>=5.5A.R:R 5.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $42.32Resistance $45.74

Price Targets

$42
$55
A.Upside+26.1%
A.R:R5.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Analyst Consensus

Analysts29
Consensus4.2/5
Avg Target$61

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is YUMC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $43.65, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: China; Below 200-day MA. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $55.05 (+26.1%), stop $41.81 (−4.4%), A.R:R 5.2:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the YUMC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $55.05 (+26.1% upside). Target $55.05 (+26.1%), stop $41.81 (−4.4%), A.R:R 5.2:1. Stop-loss: $41.81.

What are the risks of investing in YUMC?

Concentration risk — Geographic: China; Below 200-day MA.

Is YUMC overvalued or undervalued?

Yum China Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.0 (forward 13.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about YUMC?

29 analysts cover YUMC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $61.

What does Yum China Holdings, Inc. do?Yum China Holdings, the largest restaurant company in China by system sales, operates 18,101 KFC, Pizza Hut, Lavazza,...

Yum China Holdings, the largest restaurant company in China by system sales, operates 18,101 KFC, Pizza Hut, Lavazza, Huang Ji Huang, Little Sheep, and Taco Bell restaurants across over 2,500 cities. The company generated $11.8 billion in revenues in 2025, with 83% of restaurants company-owned; digital ordering accounted for approximately 94% of total company sales. Loyalty membership combined across KFC and Pizza Hut exceeded 590 million members as of year-end 2025.

Related stocks: ARCO (Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.) · YUM (Yum! Brands, Inc.) · CHA (Chagee Holdings Limited) · QSR (Restaurant Brands International) · SHAK (Shake Shack, Inc.)
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