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Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $48.79, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Concentration risk — Geographic: China.

Yum China operates 18,101 restaurants across 2,500+ cities in China under KFC (12,997 units), Pizza Hut (4,168 units), and emerging brands including Lavazza, Huang Ji Huang, and Taco Bell. The company generated $11.8 billion in revenues in 2025 from company-owned restaurants... Read more

$48.79+13.4% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#3 of 20 Restaurants
Stop $46.61Target $55.23(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.7:1
Analyst target$61.36+25.8%22 analysts
$55.23our TP
$48.79price
$61.36mean
$76

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $48.79, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Concentration risk — Geographic: China. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/6 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: China

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.4
P/E (Fwd)15.0
Mkt Cap$17.1B
EV/EBITDA10.0
Profit Mgn7.8%
ROE16.3%
Rev Growth9.7%
Beta
Dividend2.38%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.44bullish
IV52%elevated
Max Pain$35-28.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicChina
    10-K Item 1A: 'substantially all of our revenue is derived from our operations in China'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 7.5>=5.5A.R:R 2.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $47.33Resistance $50.40

Price Targets

$47
$55
A.Upside+13.2%
A.R:R2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Analyst Consensus

Analysts30
Consensus4.2/5
Avg Target$61

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is YUMC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $48.79, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Concentration risk — Geographic: China. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $55.23 (+13.2%), stop $46.61 (−4.7%), A.R:R 2.7:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the YUMC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $55.23 (+13.4% upside). Target $55.23 (+13.2%), stop $46.61 (−4.7%), A.R:R 2.7:1. Stop-loss: $46.61.

What are the risks of investing in YUMC?

Concentration risk — Geographic: China.

Is YUMC overvalued or undervalued?

Yum China Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.4 (forward 15.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about YUMC?

30 analysts cover YUMC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $61.

What does Yum China Holdings, Inc. do?Yum China operates 18,101 restaurants across 2,500+ cities in China under KFC (12,997 units), Pizza Hut (4,168 units),...

Yum China operates 18,101 restaurants across 2,500+ cities in China under KFC (12,997 units), Pizza Hut (4,168 units), and emerging brands including Lavazza, Huang Ji Huang, and Taco Bell. The company generated $11.8 billion in revenues in 2025 from company-owned restaurants (~83% of units) plus royalties and product sales to franchisees.

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