Skip to main content

Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) Stock Analysis

SellHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $45.48 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: China; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).

Yum China is the largest restaurant company in China by 2025 system sales, operating 18,101 restaurants including KFC (12,997), Pizza Hut (4,168), and emerging brands Lavazza, Huang Ji Huang, and Little Sheep. With $11.8B revenue in 2025 and approximately 83% company-owned... Read more

$45.48+22.1% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#3 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.93%
IncomeYield2.55%(5y avg 1.27%)Payout38.25%sustainable
Stop $43.62Target $55.52(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.4:1
Analyst target$61.69+35.6%22 analysts
$55.52our TP
$45.48price
$61.69mean
$76

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $45.48 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: China; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Yum China Holdings, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 22%
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: China
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.1
P/E (Fwd)14.0
Mkt Cap$16.0B
EV/EBITDA9.6
Profit Mgn7.8%
ROE16.3%
Rev Growth9.7%
Beta0.12
Dividend2.55%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicChina
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derive substantially all of our revenue from our operations in China'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.3
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume
5.7
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R 4.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $44.97Resistance $50.40

Price Targets

$44
$56
A.Upside+22.1%
A.R:R4.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is YUMC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.5/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $45.48 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: China; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $43.62. Score 5.8/10, high confidence.

What is the YUMC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $55.52 (+22.1% upside). Prior stop was $43.62. Stop-loss: $43.62.

What are the risks of investing in YUMC?

Concentration risk — Geographic: China; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is YUMC overvalued or undervalued?

Yum China Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.1 (forward 14.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about YUMC?

30 analysts cover YUMC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $62.

What does Yum China Holdings, Inc. do?Yum China is the largest restaurant company in China by 2025 system sales, operating 18,101 restaurants including KFC...

Yum China is the largest restaurant company in China by 2025 system sales, operating 18,101 restaurants including KFC (12,997), Pizza Hut (4,168), and emerging brands Lavazza, Huang Ji Huang, and Little Sheep. With $11.8B revenue in 2025 and approximately 83% company-owned restaurants, it licenses KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell from Yum! Brands under a master license agreement.

Related stocks: YUM (Yum! Brands, Inc.) · CHA (Chagee Holdings Limited) · CAKE (The Cheesecake Factory Incorpor) · EAT (Brinker International, Inc.) · QSR (Restaurant Brands International)