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Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. At $195.89, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).

Darden Restaurants operates 2,159 full-service restaurants across 11 brands including Olive Garden (935), LongHorn Steakhouse (591), Chuy's (108), Ruth's Chris (82), The Capital Grille (71), and others in the U.S. and Canada. Fiscal 2025 total sales were $12.08B across four... Read more

$195.89+3.6% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#13 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield3.02%
IncomeYield3.06%(5y avg 2.97%)Payout62.17%
Stop $184.61Target $202.93(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$225.48+15.1%27 analysts
$202.93our TP
$195.89price
$225.48mean
$156
$272

Sell if holding. At $195.89, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 39d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Darden Restaurants, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.6%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.7
P/E (Fwd)17.2
Mkt Cap$22.4B
EV/EBITDA15.1
Profit Mgn8.7%
ROE51.5%
Rev Growth5.9%
Beta0.59
Dividend3.06%
Rating analysts36

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.3
Revenue Growth
4.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
1.1
Surprise Avg
2.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MDividend: 306.0%
GatesA.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 39d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $190.00Resistance $204.55

Price Targets

$185
$203
A.Upside+3.6%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.6:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-25 (39d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DRI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $195.89, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $184.61. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the DRI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $202.93 (+3.6% upside). Prior stop was $184.61. Stop-loss: $184.61.

What are the risks of investing in DRI?

Thin upside margin: 3.6%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is DRI overvalued or undervalued?

Darden Restaurants, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.7 (forward 17.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DRI?

36 analysts cover DRI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $225.

What does Darden Restaurants, Inc. do?Darden Restaurants operates 2,159 full-service restaurants across 11 brands including Olive Garden (935), LongHorn...

Darden Restaurants operates 2,159 full-service restaurants across 11 brands including Olive Garden (935), LongHorn Steakhouse (591), Chuy's (108), Ruth's Chris (82), The Capital Grille (71), and others in the U.S. and Canada. Fiscal 2025 total sales were $12.08B across four reportable segments; Darden acquired Chuy's in October 2024 for $613.7M net.

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