Value
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.6 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.4 |
| PEG | 6.4 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.16
QSR · Why this verdict
Why Restaurant Brands International (QSR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Restaurant Brands International combines strong momentum, an excellent free cash flow conversion of 173%, and positive news sentiment, but two consecutive earnings misses averaging -51% negative surprise and a stock already near its analyst price target with only 2.2% upside mean the risk-reward is unfavorable at the current price.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Converting 173% of net income into free cash flow and generating strong earnings growth, Restaurant Brands demonstrates a franchise model that produces cash well in excess of accounting earnings, supporting the company's ability to fund dividends and debt repayment. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% in each of the next two reported annual periods. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA high debt-to-equity ratio triggers a leverage penalty, and the dividend yield appears unsustainable at current free cash flow levels per the yield trap warning in the data. | ||
Two consecutive earnings misses, including a -63.4% surprise in February 2026 when the company reported $0.34 against an estimate of $0.93, signal execution issues or structural headwinds that may persist into the next reporting period. Bear case | The company returns to earnings beats in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter showed a positive surprise of 4.0%, and the prior large miss may have been an isolated accounting or restructuring item rather than ongoing operational weakness. | ||
At $75.65 versus an analyst price target of $77.33, the stock offers only 2.2% upside with a 4.4% downside to the stop-loss level, producing a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.50 that fails to compensate for the earnings execution risk. Warnings | The analyst consensus target rises above $90 following restored earnings consistency, improving the upside potential above 15%. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the company continues delivering positive news sentiment and strong MACD momentum, analysts may revise targets upward, restoring a more favorable reward-to-risk profile without a price correction. | ||
The stock is above its 200-day moving average with a bullish MACD signal and rising on-balance volume, indicating that price momentum and volume accumulation are aligned in a positive direction, which historically precedes continued upward movement. Momentum breakdown | The stock sustains its position above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 consecutive months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith only 2.2% upside to the analyst target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.50, the positive momentum is already priced in and leaves no room for fundamental disappointment. | ||
Converting 173% of net income into free cash flow and generating strong earnings growth, Restaurant Brands demonstrates a franchise model that produces cash well in excess of accounting earnings, supporting the company's ability to fund dividends and debt repayment.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 150% in each of the next two reported annual periods.
CounterA high debt-to-equity ratio triggers a leverage penalty, and the dividend yield appears unsustainable at current free cash flow levels per the yield trap warning in the data.
Two consecutive earnings misses, including a -63.4% surprise in February 2026 when the company reported $0.34 against an estimate of $0.93, signal execution issues or structural headwinds that may persist into the next reporting period.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The company returns to earnings beats in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters.
CounterThe most recent quarter showed a positive surprise of 4.0%, and the prior large miss may have been an isolated accounting or restructuring item rather than ongoing operational weakness.
At $75.65 versus an analyst price target of $77.33, the stock offers only 2.2% upside with a 4.4% downside to the stop-loss level, producing a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.50 that fails to compensate for the earnings execution risk.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The analyst consensus target rises above $90 following restored earnings consistency, improving the upside potential above 15%.
CounterIf the company continues delivering positive news sentiment and strong MACD momentum, analysts may revise targets upward, restoring a more favorable reward-to-risk profile without a price correction.
The stock is above its 200-day moving average with a bullish MACD signal and rising on-balance volume, indicating that price momentum and volume accumulation are aligned in a positive direction, which historically precedes continued upward movement.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock sustains its position above the 200-day moving average for at least 6 consecutive months.
CounterWith only 2.2% upside to the analyst target and a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.50, the positive momentum is already priced in and leaves no room for fundamental disappointment.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.3 |
| Gross margin | 2.9 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 7.7 |
| Current ratio | 3.8 |
| FCF quality | 7.3 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 39%
- ▸Strong margins: 15%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 6.7 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 5.3 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
| erm sentiment | 4.6 |
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $9,837,764 (0.029% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 2.3 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 6.1 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 7.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.5 |
| debt equity | 2.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.00
- ▸Above max pain $55
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.7 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 3.5% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:99d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.17
Upside
-2.0%
Downside
11.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 7.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.17 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.2, Growth at 6.7, and Quality at 6.5; the weakest are Technical at 3.7, Peer rank at 4.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.17 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Momentum Above 200ma
Trip ifThe stock price falls below its 200-day moving average for more than 10 consecutive trading days.
- P2Exceptional Cash Conversion Growth
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 120% of net income in any reported annual period.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Miss Concern
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -20% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4Thin Upside Poor Asymmetry
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target declines to below $70, more than 10% below the current price.