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QSQuantumScape CorporationSell3.7·$6.90-4.70%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

QuantumScape is a pre-revenue solid-state battery developer with negative free cash flow, a quality score of 1.2 out of 10, and a confirmed death cross price pattern, offering high speculative upside of 30.8% to resistance but carrying fundamental risks that make it unsuitable for most investors at this stage.

Thesis pillars

  • Pre Revenue Cash Burn RiskStable
  • Supplier Concentration Materials RiskStable
  • Confirmed Death Cross DowntrendStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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QuantumScape Corporation (QS) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ShortHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.90: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

QuantumScape is developing solid-state lithium-metal battery technology for electric vehicles, with QSE-5 as its first planned product targeting approximately 5 amp-hours and over 800 Wh/L energy density. The company has no commercial revenue; primary funding comes from... Read more

$6.90+21.5% A.UpsideScore 3.7/10#36 of 37 Auto Parts
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield-3.42%
Stop $6.44Target $8.32(resistance)A.R:R -0.6:1
Analyst target$7.16+3.8%8 analysts
$8.32our TP
$6.90price
$7.16mean
$3
$10

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.90: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 3.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 17d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About QuantumScape Corporation

About QuantumScape Corporation

QuantumScape has attracted approximately $380 million in investment from Volkswagen since 2012 and, in July 2025, amended a Collaboration Agreement with PowerCo SE — a battery cell company wholly owned by Volkswagen — under which PowerCo committed up to $130.7 million over two years for joint scale-up work at QuantumScape's San Jose pilot production line. The company held more than 400 U.S. and foreign patents and patent applications as of December 31, 2025.

QuantumScape has not yet generated revenue from commercial battery sales. Cash inflows during the development stage come primarily from PowerCo SE's milestone-linked collaboration payments, which contemplate a licensing arrangement as the company's technology matures toward commercialization. Additional planned business models include solely owned manufacturing facilities and joint venture arrangements with other automotive OEMs; the company has signed customer sampling, technology evaluation, and joint development agreements with multiple OEM partners ranging from global-scale manufacturers to premium carmakers. Prototype cell generations have advanced from A0 samples in 2022 to B0 in 2024 and B1 in 2025, targeting QSE-5 as the first commercial product — about 5 amp-hours, over 800 Wh/L energy density, and sub-15-minute fast charge from 10% to 80% capacity. Key cost inputs include cathode active material and ceramic separator precursors sourced from a limited number of suppliers, with certain materials procured exclusively from single sources.

Show full overview

QuantumScape's 10-K discloses that certain materials and equipment are sourced 'exclusively from one or a few suppliers,' a dependency the filing acknowledges could be exacerbated by geopolitical events. In February 2025, the United States imposed additional tariffs on Chinese imports, with further increases in April 2025, directly affecting the cost and availability of lithium, cobalt, and nickel — key inputs for cathode and cell production — as well as petroleum-derived process materials where the company has already experienced minor supply disruptions.

See also: Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

From QuantumScape Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-07

Recent Developments — QuantumScape Corporation

Generated 2026-07-07T18:12:26Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202617d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: single or few suppliers for key materials
Target reached (-9.0% upside)
Quality below floor (1.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-10.4
Mkt Cap$4.3B
EV/EBITDA-8.9
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-38.0%
Rev Growth
Beta2.62
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.78neutral
IV104%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMcounterpartyPowerCo
    10-K Item 1A: 'Increased reliance on PowerCo to scale up and commercialize our technology'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle or few suppliers for key materials
    10-K Item 1A: 'we source certain of our materials and equipment exclusively from one or a few suppliers'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
3.2
Current Ratio
5.0
Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.5
Macd
3.4
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Volatile — 8.0% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Debt Equity
0.0
Beta
1.3
Short Interest
1.6
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Days To Cover
6.3
Put Call
8.2
High short interest justified: 19%High IV: 104%Above max pain $2Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.0
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R -0.6=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 17d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $6.64Resistance $8.49

Price Targets

$6
$8
A.Upside+20.6%
A.R:R-0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.0% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.2 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (17d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is QS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.90: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $6.44. Score 3.7/10, high confidence.

What is the QS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $8.32 (+21.5% upside). Prior stop was $6.44. Stop-loss: $6.44.

What are the risks of investing in QS?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single or few suppliers for key materials; Target reached (-9.0% upside); Quality below floor (1.2 < 4.0).

Is QS overvalued or undervalued?

QuantumScape Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -10.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about QS?

17 analysts cover QS with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $7.

What does QuantumScape Corporation do?QuantumScape is developing solid-state lithium-metal battery technology for electric vehicles, with QSE-5 as its first...

QuantumScape is developing solid-state lithium-metal battery technology for electric vehicles, with QSE-5 as its first planned product targeting approximately 5 amp-hours and over 800 Wh/L energy density. The company has no commercial revenue; primary funding comes from Volkswagen (approximately $380 million invested since 2012) and a PowerCo Collaboration Agreement committing up to $130.7 million over two years for joint scale-up work at its San Jose pilot line.

Related stocks: HSAI (Hesai Group) · GNTX (Gentex Corporation) · DCH (Dauch Corporation) · MBLY (Mobileye Global Inc.) · ALV (Autoliv, Inc.)
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