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Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Technology · Information Technology Services

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.42: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 4.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality.

Aurora Innovation develops the Aurora Driver, a self-driving platform deployed for commercial trucking driverless operations, with plans to expand to passenger mobility and goods delivery. It began generating initial revenue in Q2 2025 but incurred net losses of $816M that year;... Read more

$5.42+71.3% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#24 of 35 Information Technology Services
Stop $5.00Target $9.21(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 4.8:1
Analyst target$10.59+95.3%8 analysts
$9.21our TP
$5.42price
$10.59mean
$15

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.42: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 4.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-11.3
Mkt Cap$10.0B
EV/EBITDA-10.0
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-40.6%
Rev Growth
Beta2.45
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.69bullish
IV97%elevated
Max Pain$1-90.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSuppliersingle or limited source suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'We are dependent on others for the supply of vehicles, and are also dependent on our suppliers, some of which are single or limited source suppliers'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-27Item 5.02LOW
    Director Claire D'Oyly-Hughes Johnson resigned from Aurora Innovation's Board effective February 27, 2026. No disagreement with the Company cited. David Wehner appointed as replacement director effective February 27, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
2.2
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.0
Cash-burning: FCF -12504% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Volatile — 5.8% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Days To Cover
0.0
Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Debt Equity
1.1
Short Interest
1.7
Beta
1.8
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Put Call
8.7
High short interest justified: 18%High IV: 97%Above max pain $0

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.0
Bollinger
1.8
52w Position
3.0
Gap
5.0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.3
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0
GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.9>=5.5A.R:R 4.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
74 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $3.95Resistance $5.54

Price Targets

$5
$9
A.Upside+69.9%
A.R:R4.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0)
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AUR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.42: Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10 and A.R:R 4.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Prior stop was $5.00. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AUR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $9.21 (+71.3% upside). Prior stop was $5.00. Stop-loss: $5.00.

What are the risks of investing in AUR?

Quality below floor (1.5 < 4.0).

Is AUR overvalued or undervalued?

Aurora Innovation, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -11.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AUR?

14 analysts cover AUR with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $11.

What does Aurora Innovation, Inc. do?Aurora Innovation develops the Aurora Driver, a self-driving platform deployed for commercial trucking driverless...

Aurora Innovation develops the Aurora Driver, a self-driving platform deployed for commercial trucking driverless operations, with plans to expand to passenger mobility and goods delivery. It began generating initial revenue in Q2 2025 but incurred net losses of $816M that year; it targets a Driver as a Service model where fleet partners own and operate Aurora Driver-powered vehicles. Key partners include PACCAR, Volvo, Toyota, and Uber.

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