Skip to main content

Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.95: Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality. (Note: Risk dimension 2.2/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.)

Aurora Innovation is a pre-revenue autonomous vehicle technology company that launched driverless commercial trucking in Texas in April 2025 with Hirschbach and Uber Freight. The company develops the Aurora Driver platform for trucking, passenger mobility, and goods delivery... Read more

$6.95+32.4% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#23 of 27 Auto Parts
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield-2.95%
Stop $6.45Target $9.19(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$10.56+51.9%10 analysts
$9.19our TP
$6.95price
$10.56mean
$4
$15

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.95: Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality. (Note: Risk dimension 2.2/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.) Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Aurora Innovation, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-16.4
Mkt Cap$13.6B
EV/EBITDA-13.8
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-44.3%
Rev Growth
Beta2.59
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.42bullish
IV90%elevated
Max Pain$1-92.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSuppliersingle or limited source suppliers
    10-K Item 1A: 'We are dependent on others for the supply of vehicles, and are also dependent on our suppliers, some of which are single or limited source suppliers'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-27Item 5.02LOW
    Director Claire D'Oyly-Hughes Johnson resigned from Board effective February 27, 2026; no disagreement with Company cited. David Wehner (Chief Strategy Officer of Meta) appointed to Board effective February 27, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
3.2
Current Ratio
5.0
Cash-burning: FCF -10044% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Volatile — 9.3% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Days To Cover
0.7
Debt Equity
1.0
Beta
1.4
Short Interest
1.7
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Put Call
10.0
High short interest justified: 18%High IV: 90%Above max pain $0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.4
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0
GatesMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5A.R:R 2.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $4.79Resistance $8.56

Price Targets

$6
$9
A.Upside+32.2%
A.R:R2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AUR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $6.95: Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality. (Note: Risk dimension 2.2/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.) Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $6.45. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AUR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $9.19 (+32.4% upside). Prior stop was $6.45. Stop-loss: $6.45.

What are the risks of investing in AUR?

Quality below floor (1.3 < 4.0).

Is AUR overvalued or undervalued?

Aurora Innovation, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -16.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AUR?

14 analysts cover AUR with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $11.

What does Aurora Innovation, Inc. do?Aurora Innovation is a pre-revenue autonomous vehicle technology company that launched driverless commercial trucking...

Aurora Innovation is a pre-revenue autonomous vehicle technology company that launched driverless commercial trucking in Texas in April 2025 with Hirschbach and Uber Freight. The company develops the Aurora Driver platform for trucking, passenger mobility, and goods delivery with a Driver as a Service model. Net losses were $816 million in 2025 against nascent revenue; approximately 1,900 employees as of December 31, 2025.

Related stocks: HSAI (Hesai Group) · GNTX (Gentex Corporation) · PHIN (PHINIA Inc.) · GTX (Garrett Motion Inc.) · MBLY (Mobileye Global Inc.)