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QuantumScape Corporation (QS) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.44: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

QuantumScape is a development-stage solid-state lithium-metal battery company working to commercialize next-generation EV batteries featuring higher energy density and faster charging than conventional lithium-ion cells. The company has no product revenue; it earns collaboration... Read more

$7.44+25.1% A.UpsideScore 3.5/10#27 of 27 Auto Parts
QualityF-score2 / 9FCF yield-3.19%
Stop $7.04Target $9.47(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$7.16-3.7%8 analysts
$9.47our TP
$7.44price
$7.16mean
$3
$10

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.44: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Score 3.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Val3.0Qual1.2Grw5.0Mom4.2Sent4.3Ins3.4Peer3.6Tech3.9Risk2.13.5OVERALL

Recent Developments — QuantumScape Corporation

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: PowerCo / Volkswagen
Target reached (-17.7% upside)
Quality below floor (1.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)-12.3
Mkt Cap$4.7B
EV/EBITDA-9.6
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-38.0%
Rev Growth—
Beta2.58
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C1.23bearish
IV101%elevated
Max Pain$2-73.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyPowerCo / Volkswagen
    10-K Item 1A: 'Increased reliance on PowerCo to scale up and commercialize our technology.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-05Item 5.02LOW
    On March 4, 2026, Ross Niebergall was appointed to the Board of Directors as a Class II director. No committee assignments made at this time. No successor context applicable.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-10Item 5.02LOW
    On February 4, 2026, Prof. Dr. Fritz Prinz (co-founder, director since 2010) retired from the Board. No disagreement with Company on any matter relating to operations, policies, or practices.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
2.2
Moat
3.2
Current Ratio
5.0
Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Volatile — 8.5% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Debt Equity
0.0
Beta
1.4
Short Interest
1.6
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Put Call
5.1
Days To Cover
6.0
High short interest justified: 19%High IV: 101%Above max pain $2Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Analyst Target
3.0
Expensive valuation
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.3
Value Rank
5.0
Growth Rank
5.0

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
4.9
Support Resistance
6.7
GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5A.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $6.55Resistance $9.66

Price Targets

$7
$9
A.Upside+27.3%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-17.7% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.2 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.0), Material insider selling (17 sells, 0.11% of cap)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is QS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.44: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.5/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Prior stop was $7.04. Score 3.5/10, high confidence.

What is the QS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $9.47 (+25.1% upside). Prior stop was $7.04. Stop-loss: $7.04.

What are the risks of investing in QS?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: PowerCo / Volkswagen; Target reached (-17.7% upside); Quality below floor (1.2 < 4.0).

Is QS overvalued or undervalued?

QuantumScape Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -12.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about QS?

18 analysts cover QS with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $7.

What does QuantumScape Corporation do?QuantumScape is a development-stage solid-state lithium-metal battery company working to commercialize next-generation...

QuantumScape is a development-stage solid-state lithium-metal battery company working to commercialize next-generation EV batteries featuring higher energy density and faster charging than conventional lithium-ion cells. The company has no product revenue; it earns collaboration payments from PowerCo (Volkswagen's battery subsidiary), which has committed up to $130.7M for joint scale-up work over two years. Volkswagen has invested ~$380M in QuantumScape since 2012 and is the company's primary commercialization partner.

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