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QuantumScape Corporation (QS) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.33: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

QuantumScape Corporation is a development-stage company developing solid-state lithium-metal battery technology for EVs, with a collaboration agreement with Volkswagen subsidiary PowerCo SE providing up to $130.7M for the project. The company operates a pilot line in San Jose,... Read more

$7.33+29.5% A.UpsideScore 3.6/10#26 of 26 Auto Parts
Stop $6.80Target $9.47(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$7.16-2.3%8 analysts
$9.47our TP
$7.33price
$7.16mean
$3
$10

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.33: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Score 3.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val3.0Qual1.4Grw5.0Mom3.9Sent5.0Ins3.4Peer4.0Tech2.8Risk2.23.6OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: PowerCo
Target reached (-14.8% upside)
Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)-11.1
Mkt Cap$4.2B
EV/EBITDA-8.5
Profit Mgn0.0%
ROE-38.0%
Rev Growth—
Beta2.56
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F2/9

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV97%elevated
Max Pain$2-72.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerPowerCo
    10-K Item 1A: 'Increased reliance on PowerCo to scale up and commercialize our technology.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-05Item 5.02LOW
    Ross Niebergall appointed to QuantumScape Board effective March 4, 2026. Defense sector executive (former L3Harris, Raytheon). No committee appointments made at this time.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-10Item 5.02LOW
    Prof. Dr. Fritz Prinz retired from QuantumScape Board effective February 4, 2026. Co-founder of the company since 2010. No disagreement with company on any matter.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-01-30Item 5.02LOW
    Geoffrey Ribar appointed to QuantumScape Board effective January 29, 2026. Veteran finance executive; former CFO of Cadence Design Systems and NVIDIA. No committee appointments made at this time.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
2.2
Current Ratio
5.0
Moat
5.0
Cash-burning (FCF negative)No competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9Quality concerns

Volatile — 9.4% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Debt Equity
0.0
Days To Cover
0.1
Beta
1.5
Short Interest
1.6
Max Pain Risk
3.0
News Risk
5.0
Put Call
8.8
High short interest justified: 19%High IV: 97%Above max pain $2Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
2.1
Support Resistance
6.3

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Analyst Target
3.0
Expensive valuation
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.3
Obv
1.0
Rsi
3.3
Ma Position
7.2
Macd
7.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
67 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $5.90Resistance $9.66

Price Targets

$7
$9
A.Upside+29.2%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.8% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.0), Material insider selling (17 sells, 0.10% of cap)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is QS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $7.33: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 3.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Prior stop was $6.80. Score 3.6/10, high confidence.

What is the QS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $9.47 (+29.5% upside). Prior stop was $6.80. Stop-loss: $6.80.

What are the risks of investing in QS?

Concentration risk — Customer: PowerCo; Target reached (-14.8% upside); Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0).

Is QS overvalued or undervalued?

QuantumScape Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -11.1). TrendMatrix value score: 3.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about QS?

18 analysts cover QS with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $7.

What does QuantumScape Corporation do?QuantumScape Corporation is a development-stage company developing solid-state lithium-metal battery technology for...

QuantumScape Corporation is a development-stage company developing solid-state lithium-metal battery technology for EVs, with a collaboration agreement with Volkswagen subsidiary PowerCo SE providing up to $130.7M for the project. The company operates a pilot line in San Jose, California and has no commercial revenue; accumulated deficit of $470.7M disclosed in Item 1A.

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