Peloton Interactive shows a remarkable free cash flow conversion of 1,000% relative to net income and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, suggesting the business has turned a corner operationally, but a confirmed death cross, 16% short interest, and an extreme put/call ratio of 3.60 make the near-term risk profile severe.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- Free Cash Flow Turnaround→Stable
- Death Cross Downtrend↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Cyclical · Leisure
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $5.39 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Peloton Interactive is a global fitness and wellness company selling Connected Fitness hardware — Bike, Bike+, Tread, Tread+, and Row — bundled with subscription content via hardware or its Peloton Apps, serving about 6 million Members across the U.S., U.K., Canada, Germany,... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $5.39 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: speculative.
About Peloton Interactive, Inc.
About Peloton Interactive, Inc.
Peloton sells its Connected Fitness hardware — Bike, Bike+, Tread, Tread+, and Row — directly to consumers through e-commerce, retail showrooms, and third-party retailers such as Amazon and Dick's Sporting Goods, alongside a growing Peloton for Business B2B channel serving hospitality, multifamily residential, gyms, and corporate wellness clients. The company reported approximately 6 million Members as of June 30, 2025, spanning the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Australia, and Austria.
Peloton generates revenue through a hybrid model: one-time hardware sales of its Connected Fitness Products alongside recurring Membership fees billed monthly or annually through Paid Connected Fitness Subscriptions or standalone Peloton App Subscriptions (App+, App One, and Strength+). Hardware production relies on third-party contract manufacturers for most new products, supplemented by vertically integrated manufacturing for refurbished Bike and Bike+ units, with components sourced from a variety of suppliers according to Peloton's design specifications. Sales follow a seasonal pattern, with higher Connected Fitness Products demand in the second and third fiscal quarters tied to holiday promotions and New Year's resolutions, which also drives higher sales and marketing spend during those periods. The company employed 2,656 people as of June 30, 2025 — 2,145 in the United States and 511 internationally — and is not party to any collective bargaining agreements.
Show full overview
One structural exposure is more concentrated than the brand's subscription narrative suggests: Peloton discloses that it derives a substantial portion of its revenue from sales of Connected Fitness Products, hardware that is a discretionary, big-ticket purchase sensitive to consumer confidence, meaning a further decline in hardware sales would directly hit both revenue and operating results even as recurring subscriptions continue. That hardware pipeline itself depends on a limited number of suppliers, contract manufacturers, and logistics partners, over which the company says it has limited control — a loss of any partner or its inability to meet demand could disrupt product availability during Peloton's own seasonally concentrated holiday selling window.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Leisure
From Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 23, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-04Recent Developments — Peloton Interactive, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Kanen Wealth Management LLC Takes $7.56 Million Position in Peloton Interactive, Inc. $PTON - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ:PTON) CFO Saqib Baig Sells 15,000 Shares - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Peloton (NASDAQ: PTON) interim CFO sells shares under 10b5-1 plan - Stock Titan — Stock Titan negative
- NEWS Technology Crossover Management IX Ltd. Invests $21.73 Billion in Peloton Interactive, Inc. $PTON - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Peloton (PTON) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory neutral
Generated 2026-09-04T19:02:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductConnected Fitness Products10-K Item 1A: 'We derive a substantial portion of our revenue from sales of our Connected Fitness Products.'
- MEDIUMSuppliersuppliers, contract manufacturers, and logistics partners10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on a limited number of suppliers, contract manufacturers, and logistics partners for our Connected Fitness Products.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-26Item 5.02MEDIUMPeloton announced Sid Thacker as CFO effective June 22, 2026, succeeding Interim CFO Saqib Baig, who remains Chief Accounting Officer. No disagreement cited; clean handoff.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-17Item 5.02MEDIUMCCO Jen Cotter transitions to a non-executive advisory role effective March 31, 2026, providing services through August 16, 2026. No disagreement with the company cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-11Item 5.02MEDIUMSaqib Baig (Chief Accounting Officer) named interim CFO effective March 27, 2026, succeeding Liz Coddington, who departs to pursue an external opportunity.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $5.39 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $5.03. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $7.20 (+33.5% upside). Prior stop was $5.03. Stop-loss: $5.03.
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Peloton Interactive, Inc. trades at a P/E of 38.4 (forward 23.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts cover PTON with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $8.
What does Peloton Interactive, Inc. do?Peloton Interactive is a global fitness and wellness company selling Connected Fitness hardware — Bike, Bike+, Tread,...
Peloton Interactive is a global fitness and wellness company selling Connected Fitness hardware — Bike, Bike+, Tread, Tread+, and Row — bundled with subscription content via hardware or its Peloton Apps, serving about 6 million Members across the U.S., U.K., Canada, Germany, Australia, and Austria. The company earns revenue through e-commerce, retail showrooms, B2B sales via Peloton for Business, third-party retailers, and recurring subscription fees.