Peloton Interactive shows a remarkable free cash flow conversion of 1,000% relative to net income and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, suggesting the business has turned a corner operationally, but a confirmed death cross, 16% short interest, and an extreme put/call ratio of 3.60 make the near-term risk profile severe.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Free Cash Flow Turnaround→Stable
- Death Cross Downtrend→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Leisure
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $5.76: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.9/10.
Peloton sells connected fitness hardware (Bike, Bike+, Tread, Tread+, Row) and digital subscriptions to approximately 6 million Members across the US, UK, Canada, Germany, Australia, and Austria, with content studios in New York City and London. Revenue comes from hardware sales... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $5.76: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.9/10. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
About Peloton Interactive, Inc.
About Peloton Interactive, Inc.
Peloton counted approximately 6 million Members as of June 30, 2025 across the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Australia, and Austria, selling connected fitness hardware through direct e-commerce, inside sales, retail showrooms, and third-party retailers including Amazon, Dick's Sporting Goods, and seasonal partners such as Costco. Content is produced at studios in New York City and London across more than 18 fitness disciplines including Cycling, Strength, Yoga, Running, and Rowing. The company employed 2,145 US workers and 511 international workers at fiscal year-end.
Peloton generates hardware revenue from Connected Fitness Products (Bike, Bike+, Tread, Tread+, Row) and recurring subscription revenue from Connected Fitness memberships and App memberships (App+, App One, Strength+) billed monthly or annually. The company derives a substantial portion of revenue from Connected Fitness Product sales, exposing it to hardware demand cycles; subscription revenue from the installed base provides a recurring component. Manufacturing is outsourced to third-party contract manufacturers for new products, with vertically integrated refurbishment for the Bike and Bike+. In July 2025, Peloton discontinued sale of the Guide AI-powered trainer and new Guide Memberships, concentrating the hardware lineup on Bike, Bike+, Tread, Tread+, and Row. The company also serves commercial B2B clients across seven verticals including Hospitality, Multi-Family Residential, Gyms, Education, Corporate Wellness, Healthcare, and Community Wellness through a commercial business unit that in July 2025 combined Precor's commercial equipment with Peloton's software and coaching.
Show full overview
Peloton's connected fitness hardware targets premium discretionary spending, making demand sensitive to consumer confidence and disposable income. The 10-K notes historically higher hardware sales in the second and third fiscal quarters due to holiday demand and New Year's resolutions, implying weaker off-peak periods requiring sustained marketing investment. Changes in trade policies, including the imposition of tariffs on products manufactured by third-party contract manufacturers, have had and may continue to have an adverse effect on the company's business, financial condition, and results of operations. The filing notes the connected fitness market is relatively new and that if the general market fails to resume growth or fails to grow as expected, business and operating results may be adversely affected.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Leisure
From Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Peloton Interactive, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ:PTON) CFO Saqib Baig Sells 15,000 Shares - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Peloton (NASDAQ: PTON) interim CFO sells shares under 10b5-1 plan - Stock Titan — Stock Titan negative
- NEWS Peloton (PTON) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Analysts Offer Insights on Consumer Cyclical Companies: Peloton Interactive (PTON) and Tesla (TSLA) - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS PTON stock gains pre-market as Peloton looks to escape its pandemic hangover – faces crucial Q3 earnings - MSN — MSN positive
Generated 2026-07-06T04:40:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductConnected Fitness Products10-K Item 1A: 'We derive a substantial portion of our revenue from sales of our Connected Fitness Products. A further decline in sales of our Connected Fitness Products would negatively affect our future revenue'
- MEDIUMSupplierlimited number of contract manufacturers10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on a limited number of suppliers, contract manufacturers, and logistics partners for our Connected Fitness Products'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-26Item 5.02MEDIUMPeloton appointed Siddharth Thacker as permanent CFO effective June 22, 2026. Saqib Baig steps down as Interim CFO but remains Chief Accounting Officer. Thacker most recently served as CFO of Rent the Runway from May 2023 to June 2026.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-17Item 5.02MEDIUMCCO Jen Cotter transitioned to a non-executive advisory role effective March 31, 2026, providing advisory services through August 16, 2026. No disagreement with company cited. No permanent successor named as CCO.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-11Item 5.02HIGHCFO Liz Coddington stepped down effective March 27, 2026 to pursue an external opportunity. Saqib Baig (Chief Accounting Officer) appointed Interim CFO effective March 27, 2026. No permanent CFO successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $5.76: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.9/10. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Prior stop was $5.35. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $7.28 (+26.6% upside). Prior stop was $5.35. Stop-loss: $5.35.
Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.9/10; Weak growth.
Peloton Interactive, Inc. trades at a P/E of 95.8 (forward 23.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts cover PTON with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $8.
What does Peloton Interactive, Inc. do?Peloton sells connected fitness hardware (Bike, Bike+, Tread, Tread+, Row) and digital subscriptions to approximately 6...
Peloton sells connected fitness hardware (Bike, Bike+, Tread, Tread+, Row) and digital subscriptions to approximately 6 million Members across the US, UK, Canada, Germany, Australia, and Austria, with content studios in New York City and London. Revenue comes from hardware sales and monthly/annual membership fees (Connected Fitness and App subscriptions) via direct e-commerce, retail showrooms, and third-party retailers. The company employed 2,145 US and 511 international staff as of June 30, 2025.