Peloton Interactive shows a remarkable free cash flow conversion of 1,000% relative to net income and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, suggesting the business has turned a corner operationally, but a confirmed death cross, 16% short interest, and an extreme put/call ratio of 3.60 make the near-term risk profile severe.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- Free Cash Flow Turnaround↑Improving
- Death Cross Downtrend↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Leisure
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $5.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors.
Peloton is a connected fitness and wellness company with approximately 6 million Members across the U.S., U.K., Canada, Germany, Australia, and Austria as of June 30, 2025. The company sells Connected Fitness Products — Bike, Bike+, Tread, Tread+, and Row — alongside All-Access... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $5.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
About Peloton Interactive, Inc.
About Peloton Interactive, Inc.
Peloton had approximately 6 million Members across the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Australia, and Austria as of June 30, 2025, engaging through Connected Fitness hardware — Bike, Bike+, Tread, Tread+, and Row — and standalone Peloton Apps including App+, App One, and Strength+. The company derives a substantial portion of its revenue from Connected Fitness Product sales, supplemented by monthly and annual Membership subscriptions sold direct-to-consumer, through Peloton for Business, retail showrooms, and third-party retailers including Amazon, Dick's Sporting Goods, and Costco.
Peloton earns revenue from two sources: sales of Connected Fitness Products (Bike, Bike+, Tread, Tread+, Row, and, until its July 2025 discontinuation, Guide) and recurring Membership subscriptions billed monthly or annually, including All-Access Memberships bundled with hardware and standalone App Memberships. Manufacturing relies on a combination of third-party contract manufacturers for new products and vertically integrated manufacturing for refurbished Bike/Bike+ units, with components procured from a variety of suppliers under Peloton's design specifications. Distribution runs through Peloton's own e-commerce site, inside sales, retail showrooms, Peloton for Business (serving hospitality, multi-family residential, gyms, education, corporate wellness, healthcare, and community wellness verticals), and third-party retailers such as Amazon, Dick's Sporting Goods, John Lewis, and seasonal partners including Costco. The company competes against at-home fitness equipment and content providers, health and wellness apps, in-studio fitness classes, and traditional fitness clubs.
Show full overview
Peloton's 10-K names supplier and manufacturing concentration as a top-listed risk rather than a secondary concern: the filing states the company relies on a limited number of suppliers, contract manufacturers, and logistics partners for its Connected Fitness Products, and separately warns that it has limited control over those partners, which could affect its ability to produce or obtain quality products on a timely basis or in sufficient quantity. That dependency compounds a second, related concentration the filing discloses — that Peloton derives a substantial portion of its revenue from Connected Fitness Product sales specifically — meaning a single supply disruption could simultaneously constrain the product line responsible for most of the company's top-line revenue rather than a marginal one.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Leisure
From Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — Peloton Interactive, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Kanen Wealth Management LLC Takes $7.56 Million Position in Peloton Interactive, Inc. $PTON - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ:PTON) CFO Saqib Baig Sells 15,000 Shares - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Peloton (NASDAQ: PTON) interim CFO sells shares under 10b5-1 plan - Stock Titan — Stock Titan negative
- NEWS Peloton (PTON) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Peloton Interactive Inc (PTON) Institutional Confidence - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
Generated 2026-08-15T10:44:21Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMSupplierlimited number of suppliers, contract manufacturers, and logistics partners10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on a limited number of suppliers, contract manufacturers, and logistics partners for our Connected Fitness Products.'
- MEDIUMProductConnected Fitness Products10-K Item 1A: 'We derive a substantial portion of our revenue from sales of our Connected Fitness Products.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-26Item 5.02MEDIUMSid Thacker appointed CFO effective June 22, 2026, previously CFO of Rent the Runway. Interim CFO Saqib Baig steps down from that role on the same date, remaining Chief Accounting Officer.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-17Item 5.02MEDIUMChief Content Officer Jen Cotter transitions to a non-executive advisory role effective March 31, 2026, under a transition agreement through August 16, 2026. Explicitly not due to any disagreement with the company.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-11Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO Liz Coddington stepped down effective March 27, 2026 to pursue an external opportunity. Chief Accounting Officer Saqib Baig appointed Interim CFO effective the same date.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $5.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $7.23 (+28.9%), stop $5.24 (−7.1%), A.R:R 2.7:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $7.23 (+28.4% upside). Target $7.23 (+28.9%), stop $5.24 (−7.1%), A.R:R 2.7:1. Stop-loss: $5.24.
Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Peloton Interactive, Inc. trades at a P/E of 39.7 (forward 24.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Hold.
28 analysts cover PTON with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $8.
What does Peloton Interactive, Inc. do?Peloton is a connected fitness and wellness company with approximately 6 million Members across the U.S., U.K., Canada,...
Peloton is a connected fitness and wellness company with approximately 6 million Members across the U.S., U.K., Canada, Germany, Australia, and Austria as of June 30, 2025. The company sells Connected Fitness Products — Bike, Bike+, Tread, Tread+, and Row — alongside All-Access and standalone App memberships (App+, App One, Strength+), deriving a substantial portion of revenue from hardware sales and relying on a limited number of contract manufacturers and suppliers.